一哥交易经
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0313 afternoon update Daily market analysis
0313 afternoon update
BTC
The large pancake retraced to the lower edge of the converging triangle, while also being the horizontal support level around 695 from the hourly high-level consolidation, starting a weak consolidation rebound. Maintaining the consolidation within the triangle until after the U.S. stock market hours, a short-term upward breakout was initiated.
Since the choice is to break upwards, just follow the breakout and look upwards.
The intraday small level gives a retracement to around 70-705, not breaking down and stabilizing. A small position can be taken with a narrow stop loss to capture a bullish rebound. The target is the previous high.
The opportunity for a high short still needs to observe the price performance around 73-74 before trying with a small position.
Upper pressure: 72280/74050/75150
BTC
The large pancake retraced to the lower edge of the converging triangle, while also being the horizontal support level around 695 from the hourly high-level consolidation, starting a weak consolidation rebound. Maintaining the consolidation within the triangle until after the U.S. stock market hours, a short-term upward breakout was initiated.
Since the choice is to break upwards, just follow the breakout and look upwards.
The intraday small level gives a retracement to around 70-705, not breaking down and stabilizing. A small position can be taken with a narrow stop loss to capture a bullish rebound. The target is the previous high.
The opportunity for a high short still needs to observe the price performance around 73-74 before trying with a small position.
Upper pressure: 72280/74050/75150
Yesterday I made a mistake with the live stream title😅😅
Fans who had been silent for a year suddenly gave me rewards. This year, they have been listening to my ramblings during the live streams.
From the path of liquidation, I slowly turned it around to a small loss, and I am starting to gradually make a profit.
My daily output of opinions, like chanting, is not in vain as long as there are people willing to listen.
This is the meaning and motivation for my persistence.
Thank you~!
$ETH
Fans who had been silent for a year suddenly gave me rewards. This year, they have been listening to my ramblings during the live streams.
From the path of liquidation, I slowly turned it around to a small loss, and I am starting to gradually make a profit.
My daily output of opinions, like chanting, is not in vain as long as there are people willing to listen.
This is the meaning and motivation for my persistence.
Thank you~!
$ETH
260312 Daily Market Analysis - Consolidation Convergence
$BTC
The day’s big player initiates a retracement, testing the 695 area again to start a rebound.
As the high-level consolidation continues, the bearish volume begins to decrease. The bulls appear more proactive at the smaller levels.
The entire rebound begins to emerge from the triangular convergence structure of the consolidation.
So next, with the complete emergence of the consolidation structure. The time for a reversal is approaching quickly.
The funding rate negative premium is significant. The market direction is highly consistent. At this time, focus on two points:
1 The bears fake out. Volume returns to pull back.
2 Continue to break through with volume, seizing the liquidity from the bearish stop losses.
The most prudent approach is to wait for the convergence structure to complete its breakout before following the trend.
The day’s big player initiates a retracement, testing the 695 area again to start a rebound.
As the high-level consolidation continues, the bearish volume begins to decrease. The bulls appear more proactive at the smaller levels.
The entire rebound begins to emerge from the triangular convergence structure of the consolidation.
So next, with the complete emergence of the consolidation structure. The time for a reversal is approaching quickly.
The funding rate negative premium is significant. The market direction is highly consistent. At this time, focus on two points:
1 The bears fake out. Volume returns to pull back.
2 Continue to break through with volume, seizing the liquidity from the bearish stop losses.
The most prudent approach is to wait for the convergence structure to complete its breakout before following the trend.
0312 Afternoon update Daily market analysis
0312 Afternoon update
BTC
Bitcoin surged again last night with high volume. The area around 710 ultimately did not complete the breakout. Following the US stock market's post-trading, it began to pull back. Especially after breaking below 705, it has continued to drop this morning. The current position has again come to the previous low around 695 and has started to stop falling. There are expectations for a rebound at a small level. It is not recommended to directly chase shorts. During the day, there was a rebound to retest 705. You can lightly position for shorts.
Resistance above: 70500/71500/72280
Support below: 69500/68220/66600
ETH
ETH rebounded again around 2080 with high volume attempting to break through, ultimately failing. It followed Bitcoin down.
BTC
Bitcoin surged again last night with high volume. The area around 710 ultimately did not complete the breakout. Following the US stock market's post-trading, it began to pull back. Especially after breaking below 705, it has continued to drop this morning. The current position has again come to the previous low around 695 and has started to stop falling. There are expectations for a rebound at a small level. It is not recommended to directly chase shorts. During the day, there was a rebound to retest 705. You can lightly position for shorts.
Resistance above: 70500/71500/72280
Support below: 69500/68220/66600
ETH
ETH rebounded again around 2080 with high volume attempting to break through, ultimately failing. It followed Bitcoin down.
260311 Daily Market Analysis - Bearish Continuation
$BTC
After the big pancake surged, it began to consolidate weakly. As the rebound becomes weaker, it is starting to break down and fall below the support around 695.
So starting from the hourly level, if the subsequent rebound fails to confirm and cannot return, the bullish rebound basically declares the end, and those holding high positions on short orders can continue to look down.
CPI will be announced at 8:30 PM. However, the data is before the Middle East geopolitical situation, and it is expected that there will not be much change. Still, we must be prepared to defend against unexpected data shocks.
Upper pressure: 70500/71500/72280
Lower support: 679987/67100/66600
$ETH
ETH's intraday pullback is slightly smaller compared to the big pancake.
After the big pancake surged, it began to consolidate weakly. As the rebound becomes weaker, it is starting to break down and fall below the support around 695.
So starting from the hourly level, if the subsequent rebound fails to confirm and cannot return, the bullish rebound basically declares the end, and those holding high positions on short orders can continue to look down.
CPI will be announced at 8:30 PM. However, the data is before the Middle East geopolitical situation, and it is expected that there will not be much change. Still, we must be prepared to defend against unexpected data shocks.
Upper pressure: 70500/71500/72280
Lower support: 679987/67100/66600
$ETH
ETH's intraday pullback is slightly smaller compared to the big pancake.
0311 Afternoon Update Daily Market Analysis
0311 Afternoon Update
BTC
The rebound in the US stock market continues, driving Bitcoin to accelerate upward. Eventually, it faced resistance around 715 and started to pull back.
Last night, there were two weak rebounds around the 695 area. However, the rebounds are getting weaker, and if the weakness is broken with significant volume during the day, the low-level will continue to extend the bearish trend.
Before breaking below this price range with significant volume during the day, treat it with a high-level fluctuation mindset. Low-level long positions are only recommended with light positions.
The profit and loss ratio for short positions against the upper pressure of 715 will be higher.
Upper pressure: 71500/72280/74000
Lower support: 69500/68220/66600
BTC
The rebound in the US stock market continues, driving Bitcoin to accelerate upward. Eventually, it faced resistance around 715 and started to pull back.
Last night, there were two weak rebounds around the 695 area. However, the rebounds are getting weaker, and if the weakness is broken with significant volume during the day, the low-level will continue to extend the bearish trend.
Before breaking below this price range with significant volume during the day, treat it with a high-level fluctuation mindset. Low-level long positions are only recommended with light positions.
The profit and loss ratio for short positions against the upper pressure of 715 will be higher.
Upper pressure: 71500/72280/74000
Lower support: 69500/68220/66600
After reducing the short position, the pullback has slightly increased.
According to the equal distance AB=CD. The target for the stage is to look at the lower edge of the consolidation. Around 6w3.
According to the equal distance AB=CD. The target for the stage is to look at the lower edge of the consolidation. Around 6w3.
Currently a profit-loss ratio of 1:2.7.
Next, just wait for the opportunity to add positions on the right side.
Next, just wait for the opportunity to add positions on the right side.
260310 Daily Market Analysis -- High Short Opportunities
$BTC
Bitcoin continues the rebound from yesterday. Continue to squeeze shorts upwards.
Start entering an area with significant selling pressure. Stop-loss orders above are beginning to appear.
The small level is beginning to show clear stagnation, and it is not recommended to chase long positions at the current location.
In the evening, attention can be paid to short positions near 715 for re-entry.
Upper pressure: 70800/71500/72300
Lower support: 66400/65550/63200
$ETH
ETH quickly fell back after a surge last night, testing the support around 1980. Following the trend of Bitcoin for intraday rebounds.
Similarly, it has started to enter an area with significant selling pressure and is showing clear stagnation. It is not recommended to chase long positions at the current location.
The small level is beginning to face pressure and is testing resistance. Pay attention to the price performance testing around 2060-2080 in the evening.
Bitcoin continues the rebound from yesterday. Continue to squeeze shorts upwards.
Start entering an area with significant selling pressure. Stop-loss orders above are beginning to appear.
The small level is beginning to show clear stagnation, and it is not recommended to chase long positions at the current location.
In the evening, attention can be paid to short positions near 715 for re-entry.
Upper pressure: 70800/71500/72300
Lower support: 66400/65550/63200
$ETH
ETH quickly fell back after a surge last night, testing the support around 1980. Following the trend of Bitcoin for intraday rebounds.
Similarly, it has started to enter an area with significant selling pressure and is showing clear stagnation. It is not recommended to chase long positions at the current location.
The small level is beginning to face pressure and is testing resistance. Pay attention to the price performance testing around 2060-2080 in the evening.
The first wave of profits from crude oil begins to escape.
U.S. stocks start to rebound and eliminate short positions.
The expectation for a rebound in Bitcoin is taking shape.
U.S. stocks start to rebound and eliminate short positions.
The expectation for a rebound in Bitcoin is taking shape.
260309 Daily Market Analysis - Weekly Chart Guidance?
$btc
As the new week begins, Bitcoin's weekly chart shows a candlestick with a long upper shadow.
Represents the horn of counterattack for bulls sounding, attempting a counterattack.
On the daily level, a consolidation structure at a low position leads to a test of the upper edge, and after completing a 2B false breakout, it quickly fell back down. By the weekend, it still shows a slight downward trend.
In the morning, futures quickly descended to around 655. This is also the starting point for this rally. With the appearance of technical buying, Bitcoin has begun a sharp rebound today. A small-scale bullish framework has emerged. The rebound is still continuing.
The current position around 6w7 serves as a phase profit-taking point for bears. It is not recommended to continue shorting.
As the new week begins, Bitcoin's weekly chart shows a candlestick with a long upper shadow.
Represents the horn of counterattack for bulls sounding, attempting a counterattack.
On the daily level, a consolidation structure at a low position leads to a test of the upper edge, and after completing a 2B false breakout, it quickly fell back down. By the weekend, it still shows a slight downward trend.
In the morning, futures quickly descended to around 655. This is also the starting point for this rally. With the appearance of technical buying, Bitcoin has begun a sharp rebound today. A small-scale bullish framework has emerged. The rebound is still continuing.
The current position around 6w7 serves as a phase profit-taking point for bears. It is not recommended to continue shorting.
The first batch of victims of the free installation of crayfish at the Goose Factory has appeared
260309 afternoon update Daily market analysis
0309 afternoon update
BTC
The high-level false breakout of Bitcoin has fallen back into a consolidation structure. Continuous downward pressure was also seen over the weekend.
During the morning session, a halt in the decline appeared at 655, starting to stabilize. There is an expectation of a rebound and pullback during the day. Also, pay attention to the breakout situation around 6w8. After the hourly level breaks and stabilizes, a bullish rebound can continue. A retest around 7w/715 as confirmation of the pullback in the downtrend. If it faces pressure again, it will fall back. Moving forward, we will still treat the rebound as a high short under the bearish structure.
The short-term level is still oscillating downwards. The current position around 67 is a place for partial profit-taking for the short position. It's not suitable to pursue short positions directly.
BTC
The high-level false breakout of Bitcoin has fallen back into a consolidation structure. Continuous downward pressure was also seen over the weekend.
During the morning session, a halt in the decline appeared at 655, starting to stabilize. There is an expectation of a rebound and pullback during the day. Also, pay attention to the breakout situation around 6w8. After the hourly level breaks and stabilizes, a bullish rebound can continue. A retest around 7w/715 as confirmation of the pullback in the downtrend. If it faces pressure again, it will fall back. Moving forward, we will still treat the rebound as a high short under the bearish structure.
The short-term level is still oscillating downwards. The current position around 67 is a place for partial profit-taking for the short position. It's not suitable to pursue short positions directly.
Hot Spot Focus: BlackRock's 'Gate' Falls, Is the Market in a Panic?
On March 6, 2026, BlackRock, the global asset management leader managing $14 trillion in assets, suddenly threw cold water on investors: its private credit fund HLEND, with a scale of $26 billion, faced redemption requests of $1.2 billion (9.3%) but only agreed to pay out $620 million (5%), with the remaining $580 million to wait until the next quarter for redemption.
Once the news broke, the financial market was instantly shaken — BlackRock's stock price plummeted by 7% in a single day, with a market value evaporation comparable to that of a medium-sized public company; the entire private credit sector also retraced, with giants like Blackstone, Blue Owl Capital, and KKR experiencing collective stock price fluctuations. It's important to note that this is not an isolated case: previously, Blackstone faced a 7.9% concentrated redemption, and Blue Owl directly suspended retail fund redemptions. A liquidity storm covering a global market of $10 trillion is quietly spreading.
Once the news broke, the financial market was instantly shaken — BlackRock's stock price plummeted by 7% in a single day, with a market value evaporation comparable to that of a medium-sized public company; the entire private credit sector also retraced, with giants like Blackstone, Blue Owl Capital, and KKR experiencing collective stock price fluctuations. It's important to note that this is not an isolated case: previously, Blackstone faced a 7.9% concentrated redemption, and Blue Owl directly suspended retail fund redemptions. A liquidity storm covering a global market of $10 trillion is quietly spreading.
Why has it recently stopped being "When the guns fire, gold is worth a fortune?"
U.S. oil and Brent oil have once again reached 100 after 30 years.
With the substantial blockade of the strait, geopolitical conflicts have escalated, and crude oil inflation expectations have significantly increased since it went above 90.
On the contrary, this will greatly reduce interest rate cut expectations and may even usher in a wave of interest rate hikes in the U.S. dollar.
What follows is the persistent talk of economic recession, whether it is better than the local situation or will spread globally.
The main theme of this round revolves around forcing energy tightening through geopolitical pressures. This compels some small and medium-sized countries, especially those that do not settle crude oil in U.S. dollars, to passively hold and strengthen the properties of the U.S. dollar.
(The underlying reason is still to resolve the U.S. debt crisis)
During the Asian trading session, the USD/JPY has once again experienced a violent surge.
As the SPX starts to show a peak, the risk aversion sentiment in gold is not keeping pace with the U.S. dollar. The exposure to the decline of risk assets is also slowly being opened up.
There is a vague sense that the future market is about to enter a dark period.
$BTC $WTI #国际油价突破100美元
U.S. oil and Brent oil have once again reached 100 after 30 years.
With the substantial blockade of the strait, geopolitical conflicts have escalated, and crude oil inflation expectations have significantly increased since it went above 90.
On the contrary, this will greatly reduce interest rate cut expectations and may even usher in a wave of interest rate hikes in the U.S. dollar.
What follows is the persistent talk of economic recession, whether it is better than the local situation or will spread globally.
The main theme of this round revolves around forcing energy tightening through geopolitical pressures. This compels some small and medium-sized countries, especially those that do not settle crude oil in U.S. dollars, to passively hold and strengthen the properties of the U.S. dollar.
(The underlying reason is still to resolve the U.S. debt crisis)
During the Asian trading session, the USD/JPY has once again experienced a violent surge.
As the SPX starts to show a peak, the risk aversion sentiment in gold is not keeping pace with the U.S. dollar. The exposure to the decline of risk assets is also slowly being opened up.
There is a vague sense that the future market is about to enter a dark period.
$BTC $WTI #国际油价突破100美元
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