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@0xhuashi
币圈7年老韭菜、认知分享、项目投研、DEFI挖矿
Twitter：@0xhuashi
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ETH, SOL, TRX, TON from the perspective of value investment: current status and potential analysis
This round of L1 market can be briefly summarized as follows: SOL is rising strongly, TON is shining, TRX is developing steadily, and ETH is weak. Judging from the ETH/BTC exchange rate, ETH has been showing a weak trend since the beginning of 2023. This makes people wonder: Why is ETH so weak this time? Is ETH seriously undervalued?
Data Trends
Let’s first take a look at the recent transaction fee income of ETH, Solana, Tron, and Ton.
⭐️Ethereum:
As can be seen from Figure 1, Ethereum's revenue has not shown steady growth over the past year. In March of this year, as the altcoin market rebounded, the fee income reached a peak, but it fell off a cliff in the following months. Looking back at the peak of the bull market in 2021, Ethereum's monthly revenue was as high as US$1.8 billion, but even at the peak in March this year, it was only US$600 million, far from the historical high. This phenomenon shows that Ethereum's weak price is closely related to its poor revenue data. As the altcoin market fell, ETH's on-chain revenue also fell sharply.
Data Trends
Let’s first take a look at the recent transaction fee income of ETH, Solana, Tron, and Ton.
⭐️Ethereum:
As can be seen from Figure 1, Ethereum's revenue has not shown steady growth over the past year. In March of this year, as the altcoin market rebounded, the fee income reached a peak, but it fell off a cliff in the following months. Looking back at the peak of the bull market in 2021, Ethereum's monthly revenue was as high as US$1.8 billion, but even at the peak in March this year, it was only US$600 million, far from the historical high. This phenomenon shows that Ethereum's weak price is closely related to its poor revenue data. As the altcoin market fell, ETH's on-chain revenue also fell sharply.
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《AAVE is about to launch a repurchase and dividend plan: DeFi economic model ushers in a new revolution》
After $MKR is about to launch a staking dividend, another old project $AAVE is also going to launch a proposal for a new economic model. The initiator is ACI, who is the main person in charge of AAVE community governance. Basically, all proposals initiated by him will be passed.
Several key points of the new proposal:
✅The original [safety mechanism] will be changed to a new safety system Umbrella. If there is a bad debt in the system, the staked AAVE will no longer share this part of the risk, but will be covered by the AAVE protocol income (the current annual income of the protocol is 60 million US dollars, which is fully affordable)
✅AAVE can still be staked, and there is no need to bear the risk of bad debts. You can also get two parts of income:
(1) Stake AAVE, but unlike in the past, the team will repurchase the profits from the secondary market.
(2) You can get [Anti-GHO], which can be used to offset stablecoin debts, or you can stake it to earn GHO interest.
✅GHO staking will no longer receive additional token rewards from AAVE, and can only receive interest generated by GHO.
✅The initial token LEND of the protocol will stop being exchanged for AAVE, and the tokens that are not exchanged on time will be transferred to the treasury
Summary:
This new proposal is a substantial benefit to $AAVE tokens. There will be no additional issuance of AAVE token rewards generated by staking, and the profits will be used to repurchase AAVE in the secondary market. This will reduce the supply of AAVE and increase demand.
At present, with a relatively cold market, the annual income is 60 million US dollars. In the future, this part of the profit will be converted into buying orders for AAVE in the secondary market. When the market becomes active, income increases, buying orders increase, and the growth flywheel starts to turn.
Staking AAVE will no longer bear risks, which is more friendly to large funds, and will also increase the pledge rate of AAVE and further reduce circulation.
More importantly, we have seen a new paradigm in the DeFi token economic model, starting with $MKR, gradually shifting from token subsidies to real income mining, which will also bring greater attention to such real income projects in the secondary market, and pay more attention to the real revenue of the project.
#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #AAVE #美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易
After $MKR is about to launch a staking dividend, another old project $AAVE is also going to launch a proposal for a new economic model. The initiator is ACI, who is the main person in charge of AAVE community governance. Basically, all proposals initiated by him will be passed.
Several key points of the new proposal:
✅The original [safety mechanism] will be changed to a new safety system Umbrella. If there is a bad debt in the system, the staked AAVE will no longer share this part of the risk, but will be covered by the AAVE protocol income (the current annual income of the protocol is 60 million US dollars, which is fully affordable)
✅AAVE can still be staked, and there is no need to bear the risk of bad debts. You can also get two parts of income:
(1) Stake AAVE, but unlike in the past, the team will repurchase the profits from the secondary market.
(2) You can get [Anti-GHO], which can be used to offset stablecoin debts, or you can stake it to earn GHO interest.
✅GHO staking will no longer receive additional token rewards from AAVE, and can only receive interest generated by GHO.
✅The initial token LEND of the protocol will stop being exchanged for AAVE, and the tokens that are not exchanged on time will be transferred to the treasury
Summary:
This new proposal is a substantial benefit to $AAVE tokens. There will be no additional issuance of AAVE token rewards generated by staking, and the profits will be used to repurchase AAVE in the secondary market. This will reduce the supply of AAVE and increase demand.
At present, with a relatively cold market, the annual income is 60 million US dollars. In the future, this part of the profit will be converted into buying orders for AAVE in the secondary market. When the market becomes active, income increases, buying orders increase, and the growth flywheel starts to turn.
Staking AAVE will no longer bear risks, which is more friendly to large funds, and will also increase the pledge rate of AAVE and further reduce circulation.
More importantly, we have seen a new paradigm in the DeFi token economic model, starting with $MKR, gradually shifting from token subsidies to real income mining, which will also bring greater attention to such real income projects in the secondary market, and pay more attention to the real revenue of the project.
#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #AAVE #美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易
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Income-based projects are returning, but DEX leader UNI is not a good investment target
This round of currency market conditions is gradually developing towards U.S. stocks and becoming more objective and rational. However, the currency price performance of UNI is not ideal, and there are even voices in the market that "value investing is dead". In fact, from the logic of value investment, regardless of handling fees and dividends, there are inherent reasons for the sluggish price of UNI currency.
From a business logic perspective: DEX cannot compete with CEX, and its tax collection capacity and track ceiling are far lower than CEX
(1) CEX accumulates user assets, has strong tax collection capabilities, and has very high user value. However, DEX does not accumulate user assets, and its moat is far less than that of CEX.
From a business logic perspective: DEX cannot compete with CEX, and its tax collection capacity and track ceiling are far lower than CEX
(1) CEX accumulates user assets, has strong tax collection capabilities, and has very high user value. However, DEX does not accumulate user assets, and its moat is far less than that of CEX.
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#EthereumEFT #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #ETH大涨
Let's take a look at the actual data after the launch of ETH ETF:
In the three days since its launch, the original Grayscale Trust ETHE has accumulated an outflow of 1.16 billion US dollars, and other ETFs have accumulated an inflow of 976 million US dollars, with a total outflow of 178 million US dollars. This is also the reason for the recent ETH plunge.
Grayscale's ETHE has been mentioned in previous articles. Due to the high management fee of 2.5%, both early price difference arbitrageurs and funds that want to switch to cheaper management fees will choose to exit ETHE. This part of the selling pressure will take time to gradually digest. At present, there are still 7 billion funds that have not been withdrawn. Judging from the inflow of other ETFs, it is temporarily slightly less than the selling caused by the withdrawal of Grayscale ETFE.
Continue to observe the selling of ETHE. When the funds withdrawn are less than the funds inflow, the market can basically stabilize.
Let's take a look at the actual data after the launch of ETH ETF:
In the three days since its launch, the original Grayscale Trust ETHE has accumulated an outflow of 1.16 billion US dollars, and other ETFs have accumulated an inflow of 976 million US dollars, with a total outflow of 178 million US dollars. This is also the reason for the recent ETH plunge.
Grayscale's ETHE has been mentioned in previous articles. Due to the high management fee of 2.5%, both early price difference arbitrageurs and funds that want to switch to cheaper management fees will choose to exit ETHE. This part of the selling pressure will take time to gradually digest. At present, there are still 7 billion funds that have not been withdrawn. Judging from the inflow of other ETFs, it is temporarily slightly less than the selling caused by the withdrawal of Grayscale ETFE.
Continue to observe the selling of ETHE. When the funds withdrawn are less than the funds inflow, the market can basically stabilize.
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ETH ETF has been launched but has yet to rise in value. When will ETH’s spring come?
#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易 #ETH大涨 #ethetf上线交易 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
On July 23, U.S. exchanges launched 9 Ethereum spot ETFs. The long-awaited Big Day has finally arrived, but the price of ETH has not risen significantly and is still fluctuating around $3,450. Let us rationally analyze what impact the ETH ETF will have on ETH after it is launched. When will the continued sluggish ETH usher in spring?
How much incremental funds will the launch of ETH ETF bring?
First, let’s take a look at how much continued incremental funds the ETH ETF will bring to ETH.
According to the analysis of ASXN, we refer to the capital inflow brought by the BTC ETF and estimate that the inflow of ETH is proportional to its market value and the market value of BTC. Therefore, it can be simply estimated that the monthly inflow is between 800 million and 1.2 billion US dollars, which is about 220,000 to 340,000 ETH. For a detailed analysis, please refer to Figure 1.
On July 23, U.S. exchanges launched 9 Ethereum spot ETFs. The long-awaited Big Day has finally arrived, but the price of ETH has not risen significantly and is still fluctuating around $3,450. Let us rationally analyze what impact the ETH ETF will have on ETH after it is launched. When will the continued sluggish ETH usher in spring?
How much incremental funds will the launch of ETH ETF bring?
First, let’s take a look at how much continued incremental funds the ETH ETF will bring to ETH.
According to the analysis of ASXN, we refer to the capital inflow brought by the BTC ETF and estimate that the inflow of ETH is proportional to its market value and the market value of BTC. Therefore, it can be simply estimated that the monthly inflow is between 800 million and 1.2 billion US dollars, which is about 220,000 to 340,000 ETH. For a detailed analysis, please refer to Figure 1.
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#以太坊ETF批准预期 #山寨季何时到来？ #ALT再质押生态 #WLD #ENA将解锁走势如何
This week, another batch of VC coins will face large unlocking: $ALT, $WLD, $YGG, $ENA
Everyone has been seriously sucked blood by VC in this cycle. The most typical example is $ARB. When it was launched in the bear market, the price was 1.5U. Now in the bull market, BTC has risen to $67,000, but the price of ARB has fallen to $0.78. Although Arbitrum's business data is not bad, it still can't stand the VC selling.
Tokens to be unlocked in large amounts this week:
⭐️ALT, 684 million tokens (about 100 million US dollars) will be unlocked at 18:00 on July 25. This unlocking amount is not small (accounting for 42% of the current circulation). We can see in the figure below that ALT investors will start unlocking starting this week;
⭐️WLD, 5.32 million tokens will be unlocked at 8:00 on July 24, worth about 13.61 million US dollars, accounting for 1.88% of the circulation; WLD token unlocking will only start to slow down in July 2026;
⭐️Yield Guild Games token YGG will unlock 14.08 million tokens at 22:00 on July 27, worth about 7.56 million US dollars, accounting for 3.74% of the circulation;
⭐️Ethena token ENA will unlock 14.89 million tokens at 16:00 on July 28, worth about 7.28 million US dollars, accounting for 1.88% of the circulation. 0.87%. The unlocking amount this time is not large, but it should be noted that ENA will not start unlocking investors' shares until April 2025, when the token unlocking rate will be faster.
This week, another batch of VC coins will face large unlocking: $ALT, $WLD, $YGG, $ENA
Everyone has been seriously sucked blood by VC in this cycle. The most typical example is $ARB. When it was launched in the bear market, the price was 1.5U. Now in the bull market, BTC has risen to $67,000, but the price of ARB has fallen to $0.78. Although Arbitrum's business data is not bad, it still can't stand the VC selling.
Tokens to be unlocked in large amounts this week:
⭐️ALT, 684 million tokens (about 100 million US dollars) will be unlocked at 18:00 on July 25. This unlocking amount is not small (accounting for 42% of the current circulation). We can see in the figure below that ALT investors will start unlocking starting this week;
⭐️WLD, 5.32 million tokens will be unlocked at 8:00 on July 24, worth about 13.61 million US dollars, accounting for 1.88% of the circulation; WLD token unlocking will only start to slow down in July 2026;
⭐️Yield Guild Games token YGG will unlock 14.08 million tokens at 22:00 on July 27, worth about 7.56 million US dollars, accounting for 3.74% of the circulation;
⭐️Ethena token ENA will unlock 14.89 million tokens at 16:00 on July 28, worth about 7.28 million US dollars, accounting for 1.88% of the circulation. 0.87%. The unlocking amount this time is not large, but it should be noted that ENA will not start unlocking investors' shares until April 2025, when the token unlocking rate will be faster.
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The secret behind the amazing increase! Unveiling the MakerDAO Endgame token economic model
#MKR #MakerDao #以太坊ETF批准预期 #ETH
On July 17, Rune, the founder of MakerDAO, released the latest rules of Endgame, which is a major upgrade of the MakerDAO project. The team has been preparing for this for two years and is expected to be officially launched this summer. It is precisely due to this expectation that $MKR has rebounded strongly recently, rising from 1981 to 3120, an increase of more than 50%.
⭐️ Launch time: Summer 2024
⭐️ Purpose: Expand Dai supply to over 100 billion.
⭐️ Brief summary: MKR tokens will be split into new governance tokens, which can be used as a shovel to participate in mining SubDAO tokens and new stablecoins within the protocol. MakerDAO itself is a very profitable protocol, and MKR tokens will be officially empowered to capture the value of the protocol.
On July 17, Rune, the founder of MakerDAO, released the latest rules of Endgame, which is a major upgrade of the MakerDAO project. The team has been preparing for this for two years and is expected to be officially launched this summer. It is precisely due to this expectation that $MKR has rebounded strongly recently, rising from 1981 to 3120, an increase of more than 50%.
⭐️ Launch time: Summer 2024
⭐️ Purpose: Expand Dai supply to over 100 billion.
⭐️ Brief summary: MKR tokens will be split into new governance tokens, which can be used as a shovel to participate in mining SubDAO tokens and new stablecoins within the protocol. MakerDAO itself is a very profitable protocol, and MKR tokens will be officially empowered to capture the value of the protocol.
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#美国大选如何影响加密产业？
#美联储何时降息？
Trump's chances of winning have increased significantly since his assassination. Currently, his chances of winning in the prediction market Polymarket are 64%, far ahead of other candidates.
What impact will Trump's victory have on the crypto industry?
✅ Trump is currently very positive about cryptocurrencies. He supports the development of cryptocurrencies in public and has made remarks that "the future of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin will happen in the United States."
✅ The political philosophy of the Trump administration: "tax cuts", "low interest rates", "weak dollars", and "local economic protection". This will be beneficial to the capital market and to inflation-resistant Bitcoin.
✅ It is worth noting that the Republican vice presidential candidate, J.D. Vance, is a purer Crypto supporter. He holds $250,000 in Bitcoin as of 2022, has a VC background, and has a deep understanding of cryptocurrencies.
Recently, there have been reports that Biden may withdraw from the election, with a probability of 87% on Polymarket. This has reduced one more obstacle to Trump's election. If Trump and J.D. Vance are elected together, it will greatly promote the further development of the crypto industry.
#美联储何时降息？
Trump's chances of winning have increased significantly since his assassination. Currently, his chances of winning in the prediction market Polymarket are 64%, far ahead of other candidates.
What impact will Trump's victory have on the crypto industry?
✅ Trump is currently very positive about cryptocurrencies. He supports the development of cryptocurrencies in public and has made remarks that "the future of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin will happen in the United States."
✅ The political philosophy of the Trump administration: "tax cuts", "low interest rates", "weak dollars", and "local economic protection". This will be beneficial to the capital market and to inflation-resistant Bitcoin.
✅ It is worth noting that the Republican vice presidential candidate, J.D. Vance, is a purer Crypto supporter. He holds $250,000 in Bitcoin as of 2022, has a VC background, and has a deep understanding of cryptocurrencies.
Recently, there have been reports that Biden may withdraw from the election, with a probability of 87% on Polymarket. This has reduced one more obstacle to Trump's election. If Trump and J.D. Vance are elected together, it will greatly promote the further development of the crypto industry.
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#BTC☀ #BTC突破7万大关 #BTC走势预测
This Smart Money operation is on the right side. The first two times, it bought when the main rising wave came. When it was found that there was no continuous rise, it began to sell.
Today, this whale started buying again. Will there be another weekly main rising wave in the future?
Address: https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/address/3QYQ8YthYTaAFJmzUqiis7iRSWG7e5buBN
This Smart Money operation is on the right side. The first two times, it bought when the main rising wave came. When it was found that there was no continuous rise, it began to sell.
Today, this whale started buying again. Will there be another weekly main rising wave in the future?
Address: https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/address/3QYQ8YthYTaAFJmzUqiis7iRSWG7e5buBN
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#Zircuit #空投质押
Zircuit is likely to issue a coin.
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of issuing a coin before September 30 has been around 50-60% for some time, and today it has risen to 87%, making it the project with the highest probability of issuing a coin before September 30.
The official DC group also hinted at TGE today.
Zircuit has completed the first quarter snapshot on July 7.
Zircuit is likely to issue a coin.
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of issuing a coin before September 30 has been around 50-60% for some time, and today it has risen to 87%, making it the project with the highest probability of issuing a coin before September 30.
The official DC group also hinted at TGE today.
Zircuit has completed the first quarter snapshot on July 7.
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Token2049
17.1M views
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The Fed meeting is today, ,
At the moment, the expectations are as follows:
⚫ ~64% - the rate will be reduced by 0.50%.
⚫ ~36% — the rate will be reduced by 0.25%.
Unexpectedly, the market expects a 0.50% decline, which is not fully priced in. Therefore, such a move by the Fed could trigger a short-term rise in the market. But 0.25%, given market expectations, could, on the contrary, lead to a short-term decline.
At the same time, former head of BitMEX Arthur Hayes said from the stage of Token2049 that the Fed will collapse the market by lowering the key interest rate.
What are your expectations?
The rate will be reduced by 0.25% —🔥
The rate will be reduced by 0.50% — 👍
Pause / raise —😱
#FOMC #BinanceLaunchpoolHMSTR #Token2049 #NeiroOnBinance #USRetailSalesRise
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