吉霸猫

After a deep dive into the 'event trench' on Binance Wallet, I found it's still a total dumpster fire with zero participation value.

This protocol isn’t a binary prediction market. Right now, there are no market makers and zero liquidity; jumping in is just gambling on the settlement outcome. If you try to pull out midway, there's a dynamic redemption tax that skyrockets as you get closer to settlement, leaving you no room to backtrack. This also means it’s not suitable for multi-market arbitrage.

Current BTC 8-hour market real liquidity: total prize pool on paper is $832, with actual USDT injected around $60-80, and positions scattered across 18 addresses. That $76,500-77,000 bucket shows 1.6x leverage, but real deposits are only $19. If you throw in $100, you start getting diluted.

The so-called bonding curve advantage for early entrants hinges on the fact that you have to win the settlement. Getting in early just lowers your break-even point; it doesn’t change the fact that you need to bet the right direction.

As for cross-market arbitrage (comparing Polymarket odds): it exists in theory, but in reality, the redemption tax cost outweighs any price differential gains.

#事件战壕

Seeing the crackdown on Huobi/Futu/ChangQiao by 8 Chinese departments, most KOLs think it's bullish for the crypto space RWA but overlook three fatal points.

The narrative these KOLs believe is: "Demand hasn't disappeared → traffic goes to RWA → bullish for ONDO/Hyperliquid/RWA sector."

This represents their three fatal assumptions:
Assumption 1: Mainland users will turn to on-chain RWA.
The reality is: The mainstream channels for mainland users to buy US stocks are never just Futu/Huobi. IBKR, Yinxing Securities, Hong Kong stock accounts, relative-held Hong Kong accounts—there are many fallback options. More importantly, the same regulatory framework that targets Futu can also be used to clamp down on on-chain RWA. If on-chain RWA really captures mainland traffic, it will become the next target. The regulation is against the behavior of "mainland funds illegally crossing borders to buy foreign assets," not against companies like Futu.

Assumption 2: On-chain RWA is accessible to mainland users.
The reality is: Currently, all compliant on-chain RWAs (Ondo, Dinari, Backed) require KYC and clearly do not serve residents of mainland China. Non-compliant options (on-chain synthetic stocks without KYC) face even greater regulatory risks than Futu, as they lack even a Hong Kong license.

Assumption 3: This is a catalyst for the RWA narrative.
The reality is: The RWA narrative has existed for a long time and has already been priced in. ONDO has dropped 88% from its ATH, with a tokenized US Treasury TVL of $15 billion, yet the token price is tanking. This event does not add incremental value to the RWA narrative; it doesn't change the fundamentals of RWA, it merely provides a pretext for those already bullish on RWA to tweet about it.

This policy is essentially a tightening of China’s capital controls, not a bullish signal for RWA.

The altcoin market has turned into a dump

Seeing this news, I believe it's incredibly bullish for the crypto space and $HYPE , and it points out the direction for upcoming opportunities in the crypto market.

The crypto space can perfectly address all the pain points for retail traders wanting to trade global assets.

Convenient and fast, user-friendly, no restrictions, and easy capital flow. These advantages in user experience are particularly crucial for the product. $HYPE

Yesterday, the Telegram founder made adjustments to TON, so we should see a sustained bullish trend in the TON ecosystem ahead.

I FOMO'd into $DOGS , hoping for a solid outcome with the first meme from the last round of TON.

Yesterday, all the trades that the AI executed got stopped out, with losses ranging from -20% to 50%. After reviewing the situation, I found that after the AI opened the positions, the overall market turned and this trend continued into the altcoins. Moving forward, I’ll be adding some big trend indicators for the AI.

$KAT AI small position entry for a play

Current Position $EDGE

$ORCA feels good, hit the top of the gainers list, fee -2%, let's go hard on the shorts.

$LSK AI is on the watchlist～

Let's recap the recent trades I've made using the AI Agent. The token selection exceeded my expectations; only syrup was stopped out at a 35% loss. The remaining three trades, with the IDs $ORCA $1000RATS $ACU , all yielded over 150% profit.

This weekend, I'll let it run on its own for a bit while I catch up on some sleep. Next week, I'm diving in to optimize everything!

$ORCA feels good, once again validating the viability of my AI trading strategy.

I've been grinding on my AI Agent trading lately, vibed a dashboard to manage it. This morning, the AI opened a position $ORCA and so far, the overall win rate and risk-reward ratio are looking decent. It took a hit on SYRUP with a -36% stop loss, but the others $1000RATS and $ACU are both bagging over 100% gains.

Still fine-tuning it~

$1000RATS Personally, I feel like we can ride this wave a bit longer before taking profits and cashing out. But for now, it's all in the testing phase, so let's leave it to the AI to minimize the human interference.

$CTSI AI intervention, opened a long position.

Is this the launch? $1000RATS

$SYRUP Woke up this morning to find I got stopped out.

I set hard conditions for the AI to take profits at 110% ROI, so even though I had some unrealized gains yesterday, I didn’t cash out.

But I feel it’s not a big deal; discipline is the key to surviving in this game!

AI made a trade this morning, let's see how it plays out👀 $SYRUP

AI executed a trailing take profit, this segment $ACU is considered cashed out.

$ACU AI triggered the capital protection take profit, preparing to ambush the next one

The position of $ACU is still held, and it currently looks like the entry timing for AI is quite good.