There is only more than one month left before the halving, when the bull market will officially begin
In a bull market remember:
1 Price is not important, market value & valuation are the most important 2 Technology is not important, grasping is the most important 3 Bands are not important, cycles & trends are most important 4. The flash crash closes. Buy with confidence. Be careful when the channel falls. 5. Volume is shrinking in sideways trading at low level, and volume is exploding at high level. 6. Don’t go short, don’t sell spot, all short selling is for better positioning. 7 You have to wait for sector rotation to happen, and the clouds will clear and the moon will shine. 8 Contracts are hedging tools, not means of getting rich. 9. Don’t buy small lottery tickets with big money. Don’t buy small lottery tickets with big money. 10 You can have more on the left, never empty on the left 11 There is no stop loss on today’s contract, you will deliver the food tomorrow 12. Stick to the cash to get a big pay, stick to the contract with McDonald’s 13. Large funds are controlled at different points, and small funds are concentrated on attacking. 14 Don’t buy into the unknown, don’t bet on an upset comeback 15 Seize the opportunity, this may be the last broad-based bull market we can identify
"People can only save themselves; idiots are beyond help"
Anyone who wants to make money or even get rich by following orders should get out of the market as soon as possible
If following orders is the so-called "teachers" who take advantage of the mentality of the leeks who are desperate to try any possible means after losing money, then there are also some people who are just looking for losses.
These people do not do any independent thinking. Every day they look online to see who has more fans, who has better traffic, and who always publishes market analysis. Even if someone just says "I am temporarily optimistic/short on xxx", they will follow his content to open an order.
There is no key information in the public domain, and you open an order for no reason. I guarantee that [bankruptcy] will be your legendary title in the future.
Before you decide to follow someone to open an order, please think about the answers to the following questions. Do you know or have a way to figure it out:
1. Is the timestamp when he posted the content the same as the timestamp when he opened and closed the position?
2. The underlying logic or establishment conditions for his optimistic/short view?
3. How to set up stop-profit and stop-loss and the logic? Fixed or moving? 4. Which level does this transaction belong to, short, medium or long term? 5. His position and net leverage? 6. Does he hedge? 7. His risk management? 8. When do you need to increase the holding time or close the position in advance? etc.
No one is clear? Then why do you open a chicken feather order? ? ?
Why do you have to look at other people's money to buy what you want with your own money? Have you ever seen someone graduate by copying homework without attending classes for a day?
Think independently to make big money, copy orders to lose money.
I'm a big man, I say what I want to say. I'm sorry to my brothers who trust me.
I admit my mistakes. I didn't broadcast live today and went to play Monkey again🙇♂️
I'll make a simple picture and text version
The trading plan mentioned in the live broadcast yesterday is shown in the picture. At present, TP1 has been completed, and TP2 is in the red box above. Brothers with TSD indicators can just use it directly.
In the next situation, I am still bullish and hold long orders within the intraday and 3-day band range. After the 4H TSD indicator turns to a bullish trend, the bullish level will increase. If it fails to turn to a bullish trend, it will still be seen in the 4H. When it is almost at the position, I will close the long position and open a short position.
That's all.
I won't play games anymore. I won't play anymore. Please forward and like more, brothers, let my traffic curve come back to life and turn the tide.
Many books about trading and those god-level traders rarely talk about specific trading techniques when discussing trading, but talk more about mentality and operation.
It's not that they are secretive, but because technology is really not important. Even many technical analysis courses are free on the entire network.
However, operation - the key to profitable trading, is ignored by many people.
1. Entry position and entry logic
2. Exit position and exit logic (including stop profit and stop loss)
3. Global and single risk management (including position size, leverage, hedging & hedging methods, position holding time limit, on-site and off-site fund allocation, personal circuit breaker mechanism, etc.)
This part is much more complicated than technical analysis, because technical analysis is unified and can be copied. People who study charts use chart analysis; people who study waves use wave analysis. But the details of the operation are completely customized, and because only you know yourself best, this requires a lot of replay + real-time accumulation, and you can customize it for yourself.
But many people learn about waves today and think that waves are not profitable, and then learn about SMC, charts, harmonics, etc. tomorrow. In the end, you will find that you have drawn a lot of pictures, but you still lose money like a dog.
The purpose of technical analysis is to make trading simple and easy to understand, not more complicated and obscure.
Let me tell you something that may offend people, about following orders
No matter how expensive the group fee is or how high-end it looks, as long as it involves manual following orders, it is highly unlikely that you will make money in the long run, let alone get rich.
Take me as an example. For example, if you come to follow orders from me, my winning rate is always 40%-50%. I don’t make a living by the winning rate. I can make long-term profits by profit-loss ratio + strict implementation of trading plans + efficient risk management + efficient capital utilization + regular withdrawals.
So if you only follow a few orders occasionally, it is likely that you will follow all the losing orders, and then you will stop following them after saying you are an idiot, then you may miss the profitable orders later; and if you cannot follow my stop loss and stop profit, choose to hold the order or want to make a big profit at once, then a margin call will definitely be your final outcome.
The secret of long-term profitability of each trader will be somewhat different. The follower must be highly consistent with it in order to replicate the capital growth curve of the trader, so if you cannot thoroughly implement more than 90% of the content of his trading system, following orders will not make you money.
For manual copy trading, this is almost impossible. Only machine copy trading is possible, similar to the copy trading system currently used by major exchanges. But when using such systems, you must also pay attention that you must strictly follow the requirements of the trader you follow and set the same conditions as him, and you cannot quit at will in the middle of the process, otherwise the result will still be a loss.
All I want to say is to explain one thing, that is, only you can save yourself in trading. For all matters related to yourself, only you are the decision maker of your destiny.
If you don't want to learn and make money, even if you want to win the lottery, you have to go out to the lottery station and spend money to pick the number. Instead of spending your mind on the wrong path, it is better to think about how to learn and how to make your own trading path.
It has been said before that this is an extremely difficult pattern to do. Once you encounter it, you usually choose to take a break. But it is not completely impossible to do it, but the risk is very high, and the profit and loss ratio is generally average, so it is not recommended.
I have a little experience to share:
After the diffusion is formed (the sum of the upper boundary key point + the lower boundary key point is at least greater than 5), you can draw a middle track line from the starting point of the diffusion to divide the upper and lower parts equally. You don’t have to be so rigorous as to measure it with a ruler, just roughly. After the division, use the middle track to distinguish the trend. If the price is above the middle track, it is dominated by bulls, and below it is dominated by bears, and then you can do it as big as you want.
The principle is also relatively simple. No matter how large the diffusion is, it is essentially an oscillation range. The median price of any oscillation range is an important divergence point for market participants, which will affect the transformation of trading volume, trading sentiment and supply and demand forces.
Compared with the convergence pattern or rectangular consolidation pattern, the middle track of diffusion is more difficult to define. At the same time, the increase in terminal volatility leads to the ruthless liquidation of long and short forces, which also makes the short-term liquidity (depth) of the market more fragile. A slightly larger order can bring about an amplitude that is rarely seen on weekdays, which makes the transaction more difficult.
If you want to do it, I still recommend being cautious. It is best to follow the general trend and make small orders, so as not to be swept away when the gods fight.
The most common and common operation I have encountered is
After opening an order, I keep watching the market, get excited when it goes up a little, get nervous when it goes down a little, and finally my heart can't stand it and I just sell directly, then I come back after eating or taking a shower and see:
Hey, it's the original take-profit position! My thighs are broken!
If you don't do ultra-short trading, don't watch the market, just put the take-profit and stop-loss and ignore it. When watching the market, you can't do anything except pray, so why not go out and have fun!
Let's put the technology aside for now, because I never think that technology is a problem. From a probability perspective, the auntie on the street's views on the market's long and short positions are actually pretty much the same as my chances of winning. I have also said many times that my winning rate has been hovering around 40%-50% all year round, and when it's bad, it's even as low as 30%↓. What makes me money is the profit and loss ratio.
So, under the appropriate profit and loss ratio, how can we train our operations and mentality to obtain positive feedback?
1. Try your best not to pay attention to numbers related to "price", "value", "profit and loss" and "funds".
Often, the imbalance of manual operations is caused by an obsession with these numbers, such as when the account rate of return is about to reach 10 times, or the income is about to exceed a certain integer, or the retracement is about to reach a personal circuit breaker point, etc. At these times, it is very easy to have an obsession with "must quickly reach/leave this state" in the trading mentality, which leads to overthinking, overtrading, and overoperation, resulting in a large retracement of the account.
The general path of trading: Watch the market → Analyze → Give expectations → Make plans according to expectations → Make strategies according to plans
When the market starts to follow one of the expectations, the false items in the strategy will become true one by one, and all the conditions of one strategy are true = execution
The rest is to wait for the conditions of stop profit or stop loss to be met and then close the position.
Sometimes I feel like I am talking nonsense, but there is no way, this thing is just these nonsense back and forth, but this nonsense is very important, depending on the degree of realization of these nonsense, it will directly affect the subsequent trading decisions.
If you want me to say "buy at 6w, see 12w, protect 5.5w", I can't say it, I haven't learned it, I only have nonsense.
Fed rate decision coming up: the case for no change
1. Inflation data
According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the US CPI increased by 3.4% year-on-year in May 2024, slightly lower than the 3.5% in the previous month. The core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) increased by 3.6% year-on-year. Although inflation is still higher than the Fed's target, the slowdown in the growth rate shows that inflationary pressure has eased (Bureau of Labor Statistics) (Bureau of Labor Statistics) (US Inflation Calc). 2. Job Market In May 2024, US nonfarm payrolls increased by 272,000, exceeding expectations of 182,000, indicating that the job market remains strong. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.0%, slightly higher than the level in previous months. This suggests that although job growth is solid, there is still some slack in the labor market (Investing.com) (Bureau of Labor Statistics) (YCharts).
The risk of shorting on the left is infinite. Risk comes first and stop loss comes first when trading. With such a strong upward trend, even if you think there is not much room above it, you should stop profit or stop buying more. How could I go short it?
I know it's a bull market now. Since I know it's a bull market, what kind of brain circuit is it to go against the market to prove that you are awesome when you see a coin breaking through all resistance and soaring? Are you the only one awake when everyone else is drunk?
There is still a trace of regret in the first picture, and isn't the second picture pure idiocy?
You still dare to say "I am capable" with a smug face. Is this what you call trading? It's obvious that you are gambling!
Go find a class to attend, don't fucking hurt your family!
We often say that if you want to get rich, you need the right time, right place, and right people, but the right time and right place are not controlled by people.
Only by mastering the "right people" can we determine our lower limit.
In trading, this lower limit is determined by risk management: the better the control, the longer we can survive in the market, and the more opportunities we have to encounter the right time and right place.