June 25, 2024 Grandpa checks in
According to Cailian News, Fed President Daly said that if inflation falls slower than expected, the policy interest rate must remain at a high level for a longer period of time. If inflation falls rapidly or the labor market weakens beyond expectations, it will be necessary to cut interest rates. The implication is that the Fed is now relying on its own strong economy and hopes to suppress other economies through continued high interest rates. After all, the continued high interest rates of the US dollar are a burden, and more economies will surely collapse as time goes on.
For us, we are definitely looking forward to a rate cut. After all, risk assets rely on funds, and the US dollar is the main source of funds for the B circle, so there must be capital spillover first. Why is the rise of this round of small bull market different from the previous ones? Only the main targets such as Bitcoin have risen, and the others are just capital rotation and there is no general rise. The most important reason is that the inflow of funds from outside the circle is not enough, and it has not spilled over from Bitcoin to other cottages, and the funds in the circle are not enough to drive the general rise of the entire market. According to my previous judgment, the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in the short term, and the flow of funds takes time, so the big bull market will basically have to wait until next year.
As for the market, the next few months may not be too optimistic, but as I said yesterday, there is no need to be too pessimistic. The price of Bitcoin fell below 60,000 yesterday and then pulled back, which means that it is still difficult to effectively fall below it in the near future. And yesterday, a positive signal that you may have noticed is that Bitcoin fell below 60,000 and did not lead to a general decline in the altcoins, indicating that the altcoins have experienced a series of sharp declines in the early stage and have fallen to the point where they can no longer fall. Recently, I have also been gradually building positions in the altcoins. Although I haven't made a big bottom-fishing yet, there is still a chance to buy some first to try to catch a wave of market conditions.
The next market trend is expected to remain at a low level. As long as the price of Bitcoin does not fall below 58,000 again in the next few days, this wave will come to an end. However, considering that the decline of the altcoin is indeed not small, it is unrealistic to expect a big rebound in the short term. If it fluctuates sideways, it is a good signal to digest the decline in my opinion. In addition, in yesterday's plunge, more than 200 million US dollars of long positions were liquidated. This volume was achieved after several rounds of altcoin plunges, which can basically be regarded as a signal to stop the decline.
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