The BTC rate today is below $63,000, having broken through the volume level of $62,987. The price reached the 0.382 Fibonacci level (rate $62,463).

It is not fashionable now to have a bullish sentiment on the market, especially since those who bet on the fall still manage to make money. The bears' loud and victorious calls for $40,000 are heard again. And this despite the fact that the price has not yet settled below $60,000. The fact that the deposits of many of them will eventually be destroyed by a sharp increase - the bears will not tell you so loudly later. Such psychosis is typical for bears in a bull market. As for bulls - on bearish.

By the beginning of the new week - a summary of the situation with#BTCand our forecasts:

1. Our forecast for a rebound on June 15-17 with a chance of a reversal and a new ATH did not work out. There is no reversal, much less a rebound, yet. And the price movement here since Friday has clearly shown this. But for now, this is delaying growth with a possible new ATH, and not canceling it.

2. The candlestick structure after June 17 during the day is unclear. We assess it as a turning point in the search for additional liquidity after the inability of the bulls to gain a foothold above the EMA of the 50 day TF (currently $66,250). A breakout and consolidation above it is still the key condition for a new ATH. In case of a rebound, plus or minus, from the current ones (remember Monday as the day of fake movements), this EMA and the adjacent volume level of $65,892 are very important.

3. On the weekly TF, the candle closed in a clearly bearish manner and outlined a downward structure.

If the structure continues, this decline may continue until mid-August. Although we are not considering such a scenario and are waiting for a breakdown, and soon.

4. Situation by waves. The entire decline since June 7 fits into the ABC correction on the daily basis; on lower timeframes, part of this movement can be decomposed into five waves.

That is, there are two declining formations on the chart and both are at their completion, but are lengthening. And the entire movement in March-June is still the fourth wave in the large growth structure of the current cycle. This is a sideways movement in a wide range of $59,335-$72,983. There is still no sign of a downward market reversal here.

5. The entire decline since June 7 is only -13% of the net movement in June. After +26% net movement in May. This is about the question of whether the bears are right in the medium and long term. And the adequacy of their cries about the collapse.  In general, the aggressiveness of bears in the current market confirms that it is too early to make a dump on the current chart. Some of them have not yet been “annihilated.” And it’s too early to turn BTC into a serious correction (at least within the framework of a global and rapid long squeeze like in the spring of 2020), before they too turn into bulls. 

6. RSI on the daily timeframe is already 30. Close to oversold, strong unloading. It is not worth focusing on the current situation only on RSI. But you can set an alert for a breakdown of the downward trend since June 5 (which is what we did).

7. Index of fear and greed - 51. Already a neutral zone. And - it returned to the indicators of October 2023. When the fake news about the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF from BlackRock began an active impulse growth from $27,000 to the new ATH.

8. A rebound/reversal after the decline on June 24 may be even from the current ones, but a clear bullish formation is needed, confirmation is needed. In the current conditions, the “Morning Star” is ideal, like in early May, or at least just a bullish absorption during the day. Without obvious signals for a reversal, the continuation of the decline is in force. Remember the rule “as long as the price is below EMA 50, it goes to EMA 200.” EMA 200 daily TF is now at $58,011. And this is the nearest important support for moving averages. The next one is only the EMA 50 of the weekly TF at $51,015. These levels from the current ones are more likely levels for opening longs in the event of a dump than fixation targets for shorts from the current ones (!). The second is a much more risky thing. But, of course, bears who have been short since June 7, or at least from June 15-20, can now have comfortable stops.