Here is what I want to discuss with you this time:
1. The cryptocurrency market fell so badly a few days ago that 160,000 people were liquidated in just 24 hours, and the total market value of cryptocurrencies fell by 300 billion. Who is selling?
It turns out that the problem lies in these two places. According to the latest report from BitFinex, the recent sell-off was not caused by ETFs, but by miners. This is because after the halving of Bitcoin production, the original electricity fee of $60,000 could produce two BTC, but now only one can be produced, which means that miners need to sell all the coins they produce to repay the electricity bill. Before the halving, miners could only sell half and keep the rest, so now miners with low production capacity are struggling and forced to sell.
Even the cryptocurrency analyst Willy pointed out many days ago that the market will only pick up again after the weak miners are eliminated. Therefore, compared with the 10% drop in Bitcoin, the reshuffle of miners with doubling of mining costs is actually more cruel.
From the K-line, Bitcoin has even reached the bottom edge of the ascending triangle, which is a matter of life and death. As long as it holds here, it will be the clarion call for a full-scale counterattack. It will first reach 69,000 and then wait for an opportunity to break through. This will be the most perfect scenario. Now it has begun to rebound. I hope everything goes well. Everyone stays vigilant.
2. In fact, if you look at the options market, you will find that Wall Street is still optimistic. Among the $2.3 billion Bitcoin options that expire at the end of July, the bullish and bearish ratios are as high as 2 to 1.
Among them, the main strike price bets for call options are concentrated at 100,000 and 80,000, with an average of 85,000. Although this seems high, in fact, as long as Bitcoin can break through the previous high before the end of July, it will definitely rise sharply. A 10% increase will reach 85,000, so this is not outrageous. Most option traders still expect it to successfully break through before the end of next month.
As for put options, they are mainly around 60,000, and the average is also about 60,000, so the current situation is that if it falls, it will only fall to 60,000, but if it rises, it can rise a lot, because options bet on the price of Bitcoin at a certain time in the future, so from this point of view, the profit and loss ratio of bottom fishing is still quite cost-effective.
As for small coins, they are similar to what we analyzed a week or two ago. They have fallen in wave C as expected. Although the decline is a little more than I expected, the general trend is fine. These coins have fallen 40-50% from their previous highs, so I really did what I said in the previous program. If there is a wave C, you can buy at a low point! At present, I am also making a small profit.
3. Although we didn’t necessarily buy at the very bottom, we did buy at a relatively low point. Look at those people whose Ondo or People stocks are at 1.5 on the top of the mountain. They are almost cut in half. That’s really uncomfortable. So in comparison, our performance is still OK. At least the current market trend has not exceeded expectations too much. And the advantages accumulated day by day and month by month will form a snowball. For example, if the Ondo market rebounds and rises to 2u, if you enter the market at 1u, you can double your profit. But if you enter the market at 1.5, you can only make 30% at 2u, which is a difference of 3 times in profit.
Although the cryptocurrency market has fallen so much, there are still two major positives worth looking forward to in the near future. The first is that the Ethereum ETF is very likely to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange in advance on July 2. By then, there will definitely be all kinds of reports flying around, which will probably revitalize the long-dormant cryptocurrency market. The second most important event in the near future is that the PCE price index, which the Federal Reserve values the most, will be released at 8:30 p.m. next Friday. This data is more important than CPI. Because you often hear the Federal Reserve speak, you know that they often talk about PCE rather than CPI, and the market is in urgent need of such data to confirm whether inflation has really begun to fall again. The previous value of PCE this time was 2.7%, while the market expected it to be 2.6%, which is a default positive. The previous value of core PCE was 2.8%, but the market expected it to reach an astonishing 2.6%, so it can be said that the market has high hopes for this PCE. After all, whether there will be a rate cut in September, and whether there will be a rate cut once or twice this year, really depends on each current data. The last time CPI was favorable, Bitcoin soared from 66,000 to more than 70,000. If it continues to decline this time, it may not only be a positive inflation, but it may even be a turning point in the Fed's policy. At present, the probability of a favorable outcome is still very high. So pray, the future of the cryptocurrency world lies in these data!
Remember, if you view your position as a long-term investment, a market drop should be seen as a gift. It provides an opportunity to buy more coins. Finally, it is crucial to have a strategy before making any purchases, and never invest all your funds.
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After all, I am leading everyone forward step by step. You should have a good understanding of my investment style in the article. If you agree, you are welcome to join. I hope everyone can seize the early bird period and seize the golden layout period of the bull market.
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