The battle for $30,000 has been going on for a month. This year, the price of Bitcoin has gradually become a tug-of-war since it started at $25,000.

The picture shows the market trend chart for the whole year 2023, and 4 shock intervals are also marked in the picture.

The four oscillation intervals represent different time periods and can also help us identify the strength of the trend.

The first oscillation range is the bottom range from November to December 2022, which is also the range where BTC really bottomed out (BTC weekly analysis, is it a stop or a trap?)

This range lasted for a long time. Affected by the previous big negative line, many people were dominated by fear, fearing that the market would continue to fall sharply.

But many people overlook that when the market is extremely fearful, it is the best time for the main players to enter the market.

After accumulating funds for 2 months, the main force began to pull up the market rapidly from January to February 2023, and the price also ranged from 16,000 to 24,000 US dollars.

During this period, countless people missed out on this wave of growth. Some strong coins even increased by 3-5 times, just like the OP and DYDX mentioned in my article, which both increased significantly.

The second shock range happened very quickly because the market began to react: a small bull market was coming and retail investors began to chase the rise.

This callback is also very urgent and the amplitude is also large. Retail investors are also

Various "value coins" are set on the top of the mountain

Those who can’t bear it, don’t understand the market, and use loans to trade cryptocurrencies can’t stand this kind of torture. They are afraid that the market will continue to be bearish, so they can only sell at a loss.

This is also the key reason why the decline in March was so rapid.

A sharp drop will inevitably be followed by a sharp rebound. This is the experience summed up by countless predecessors, and it is also fully demonstrated in the market in March.

This surge was very fast, directly breaking through multiple key pressure points, and the volume continued to increase. Those who were originally pessimistic were shocked when they saw this volume. At that time, I also reminded on the official account that a rebound was about to begin.

The third shock range lasted for a long time, about two and a half months, and the decline was smaller than before, and the market did not show a trend of a general collapse.

In the early stage, the bulls and bears were relatively balanced. The real winner was when the market reached the key support level, and the bulls began to exert their strength and reversed the trend.

Around June 15, when the market was about to fall below $25,000, those neutral people in the market temporarily joined the air force camp.

Because no matter how you look at it, the Air Force has an absolute advantage, but my opinion at the time was different. I thought it was just a conspiracy of the main force.

Although the rise at the end of June broke the previous high, the amplitude was not large, and the bullish volume also began to shrink.

The key point is that the recent market closed with cross lines. Every time it rushed up to 30,000 US dollars, the K-line closed with a long upper shadow line.

Another thing to note is that the current market has come close to the long-term upward trend line, and the long and short positions have begun to shrink, which is a sign that a change is needed.

Recently, many big Vs in the market have begun to believe that the market will continue to rise to around 33,000-38,000 US dollars

Combined with today's analysis of the four shock ranges, it reminds me of a very classic story "The Boy Who Cried Wolf"

Of course, there are still many people who are bearish, but they all think that the price will fall to around $25,000 at most, because the support at this position is very strong.

But I have different opinions from the above two

From the clues I have seen so far and the experience I have gained in the past, I think if the market falls in large volume this time, the low point will not be supported by $25,000.

As for where the price will fall, we need to track the market in real time and observe the strength of both long and short positions to determine where the price will stop falling.

One thing I can share with you is that the price that most people in the market think cannot fall below will most likely be broken.

The above analysis is just my personal opinion, and does not provide any investment advice. Trading is not a casual thing, be cautious, cautious, and cautious again.