Understand the basic framework of TON:
1.Who is it?
2.Who did it?
3.What do you do?
4.What did you experience?
5. Where is the future?
Introduction: General investment research reports are not very friendly to novices, because some of the terms involved are rather obscure. Therefore, in this article, I will use a relatively colloquial approach to talk to you about this project. Experts may laugh at me when reading this!
1.Who is he?
TON——TON, a project that has been tepid and unpopular before, has recently become popular with the emergence of its new coin NOT. Many people have discovered that TON is actually the son of Telegram!
With a market cap of $27 billion, the price has been rising steadily. It has surpassed DOGE and XRP and successfully jumped to the 7th place in the market cap list! Will this be the next Solana?
2.Who did it?
As mentioned earlier, ton is the son of Telegram (TG, Telegram Group, Paper Plane). TG was founded by the two Durov brothers from Russia. In the 11 years from 2013 to 2024, tg has 900 million users worldwide and a market value of more than 30 billion US dollars.
The project was launched in 2019, but was discontinued in June 2020. Since then, the network has continued to be supported by TON's open source community.
3.What does TON do?
It is a public chain that wants to improve the Ethereum chain. As we all know, there has been no good solution to the channel problem of Ethereum, so there are more and more public chains, and ton is one of them. Its goal is to become a Web3.0 network that includes decentralized storage, I2P network, instant payment, and highly usable decentralized applications.
The function of TON coin is to make payment and handling fee in the ton ecosystem. It can also be used as a decentralized financial tool for pledge and lending. Everyone knows the Telegram group, right? You can use the ton wallet to pay with ton on the platform, just like WeChat Alipay and transfer. Including many small games to earn coins, deposit coins to earn interest!
Therefore, in theory, the TON system can accommodate up to 2 to the power of 32 working chains, each of which can be subdivided into up to 2 to the power of 60 shard chains, and has almost instant cross-shard and cross-chain communication capabilities, achieving millions of transactions per second.
To put it in plain words: The pain points he wants to solve are the high speed, low loss, and decentralization issues that the crypto market needs to solve urgently!
The token model is the same as Ethereum. TON's consensus is also transformed from POW to POS, and currently more than 98% of the tokens in circulation are mined through POW.
4.What did you experience?
Image source: TON official
2018
TG founder Durov already had 100 million users based on the TG communication portal. They happened to find that there was no Layer 1 blockchain that could support TG's 100 million user base, so they decided to design their own Layer 1 chain, which was called Telegram Open Network at the time.
Then the strongest private placement in history appeared - TON (then called Grams) raised $1.7 billion through private placement.
October 2019
The founding team released a series of documents detailing the design of the TON blockchain. Telegram launched two TON testnets, one in spring 2019 and the second in November 2019.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued Telegram, alleging it conducted an unregistered securities offering. Telegram claimed the SEC’s allegations were baseless but agreed to delay the launch of TON until the legal issues were resolved.
March 2020
Amid an ongoing standoff with U.S. regulators, Durov finally decided to give in.
May 2020
The TG team reached a settlement with the US SEC and was forced to stop working on The Open Network, paid a settlement of $18.5 million, and agreed to return the $1.7 billion raised in private placements to investors.
In order to prevent the team's suspension of work from affecting the development of the project, and to allow enthusiasts to continue researching the technology, the Telegram team put all available tokens in the network into smart contracts, allowing anyone to mine them fairly.
July 2020
The miner code was published in the code repository and a tutorial on how to mine was published on the project website. All circulating Toncoin tokens (98.55% of the total supply) were open for mining. At the time, the blockchain was still in the testnet stage and the tokens had no value and could only be used for testing purposes. These tokens were placed in a special Giver smart contract and anyone could participate in mining.
2020-2021
TON restarts
A small team of open source developers, NewTON, delved into the TON codebase, architecture, and documentation. They followed the design in the original TON documentation and restarted active development of TON.
May 2021
Testnet 2 has remained stable for a long time, and the community voted to rename it to Mainnet. The NewTON team also changed its name to TON Foundation.
April 2022
TON Foundation announced the establishment of a $250 million ecosystem fund, TONcoin Fund, with funds coming from exchanges and institutions such as Huobi, KuCoin, MEXC, 3Commas Capital, and TON Miners.
At the same time, the foundation raised $527 million from 176 independent users, all of which were spontaneous donations from miners.
June 2022
TON POW mining is over, and users mine about 200,000 TON every day. At the same time, DWF Labs joins its $25 million TON accelerator program, and DWF Labs will contribute to the token economics, market making, and liquidity provision of the TON ecosystem. DWF Labs' support includes investment and other ecosystem services.
(DWF: Some say he is the savior, others say he is the sickle)
DWF Labs’ “History of Success”: Invested in 470 projects within 16 months of its establishment, relying on pulling the price to attract customers
February 2023
TON VOTE passed a "TON Token Economic Model Optimization Proposal" that proposed a temporary freeze for 48 months of inactive mining wallets that have never been activated and have no outgoing transfers in their history. There are currently 171 inactive mining wallets, which hold a total of more than 1.081 billion TONs, accounting for about 21% of the total TON supply at the time.
2024
Today, ton cannot be said to be in its heyday, but at least it is a dark horse in the bull market. It has gone through many trials and tribulations, and has gradually grown from a market value of only a few billion in this bull market to a market value of 27 billion US dollars. It has surpassed xrp and jumped to the 7th place in the ranking. Based on the participation of a large user base and an extremely prosperous ecosystem, the circulation volume on the ton chain has vaguely surpassed Ethereum during this period, and the price of the currency has also been rising.
5. Where is the future?
In fact, when talking about the future, we must talk about the past and the present.
We have explained the past background very clearly, and the development process is also very clear. Regarding the current ecology, we can look at the following data and compare them with the reference targets. Whether the future will be high or not depends on the first two plus the SWOT analysis, and basically the entire project will come out.
Several data that need attention from a.ton
The first round of fundraising was US$1.7 billion, the first in the history of encryption
Market capitalization: $27.346 billion
Market capitalization ranking: No. 7, ahead of USDC $36.5 billion and behind XRP $26.2 billion
Total tokens: 5.1 billion. All tokens have been mined through the conversion of POW to POS.
Total circulation: 34.7, accounting for 67.9%
Locked and uncirculated: 33.1%
Number of TG users: 800 million
· 846 applications in the ton ecosystem
b.ton's ecological landscape
The most popular things in the ton ecosystem are games and official welfare activities, with deposits earning interest of up to 50%-150% annualized. Of course, a threshold is set to allow only a few thousand dollars to participate.
The stand-alone game experience is average, similar to WeChat mini-program games, but according to players, it is basically brainless, mainly playing games can earn points in exchange for income, and there are also opportunities for airdrops. There are many teams in the market that can naturally bring a lot of traffic, including the fact that staking ton tokens can obtain advertising revenue from the platform, which is attractive enough.
·Meme is the hottest narrative this year. It is possible that a representative of WIF and Bome will appear after the ton section.
c. If it is to benchmark against Ethereum and Solana ecosystem, is there still much room for growth?
The TON team wrote a special paper explaining the differences between TON, Solana and Ethereum.
Image source: Su Bai Talks About Coins
(Excerpt from: Blockchain Thinking)
I summarize the core differences into two important concepts: "resource payment" and "asynchronicity":
Resource payment:
1. In the TON blockchain, each smart contract needs to pay for its own resource costs. This means that each smart contract holds a certain number of TON tokens and uses these tokens to pay for the resources required for its operation, such as computing, storage, and network transmission.
2. This design is different from Ethereum, where users pay transaction fees, while in TON, the smart contract itself pays the fees. This design can avoid users bearing fees directly, but it also means that the smart contract needs to hold enough TON tokens to cover its operating costs.
3. If a smart contract’s TON token balance is exhausted, the contract will eventually be deleted. This is an automatic cleanup mechanism that avoids data bloat on the blockchain.
Asynchronicity:
1. In the TON blockchain, calls between smart contracts are asynchronous, not atomic. This means that when one smart contract calls a method of another smart contract, the call is not executed immediately, but is processed on a future block after the transaction is completed.
2. This design allows for higher scalability because it does not require all transactions to be processed in one block. But it also makes it more difficult to maintain consistency and atomicity between transactions.
3. For example, if contract A calls a method of contract B, the call will not be executed immediately, but will be processed on a future block after the transaction of contract A ends. This means that the transaction of contract A can be completed before the call of contract B is processed.
These two concepts are the core design of the TON blockchain, enabling it to achieve higher scalability and flexibility, but also increasing the complexity of development and maintenance.
Friends who are familiar with public chains have a sense of déjà vu. Yes, the infamous "death-level" public chain ICP - Internet Computer also has a similar design. The project pays gas for users and adopts an asynchronous architecture for performance.
This is actually understandable, but asynchrony will make the development of DeFi on public chains difficult and slow, which is also the biggest point of contention in the ICP community. After all, when we measure the value of public chains, we use TVL to measure it. If a public chain lacks DeFi and TVL in the early stage, it is destined to have no wealth effect and it will be difficult to attract the attention of the public. This is why most people don’t understand this behemoth with a market value of up to 6 billion US dollars.
Picture source: Su Bai Talks about Coins
Obviously, the asynchronous architecture limits TON's development in the DeFi field, but this also indirectly proves that Mass adoption is the real vision of TON. TON was described at the beginning as a decentralized application and service platform similar to WeChat, Google Play or App Store, or even a decentralized alternative to Visa and Mastercard payment processing services.
In order to achieve Mass Adoption, high performance is the cornerstone, and low-threshold usage scenarios and huge traffic entrances are the key. This is also TON’s core competitiveness - deep integration with the Telegram ecosystem.
d.SWOT analysis
As shown in the figure:
The advantage is that there is no need to worry about institutions unlocking and dumping the market, but the disadvantages are also similar. In the early days, large miners held coins in a more concentrated manner and replaced institutions. Now the top 100 whale addresses hold more than 50% of the total tokens.
Although the community voted to freeze inactive mining wallets for 48 months (4 years: the calculation time starts from 23 years and ends at 27 years), which will temporarily alleviate this part of the selling pressure, but due to the decentralized thinking, these wallets are unlikely to be frozen permanently, at least not that soon. Otherwise, DWF has no choice to make a market? Such a strong dealer will not do a losing business!
In 2023, the TON Foundation and Orbs launched the governance forum TON(.) Vote to promote transparent decentralized governance on the network. To date, several key proposals have been approved:
• Freeze inactive mining wallets for 4 years
• Destroy 50% of all transaction fees
In comparison, the total amount of Bitcoin held by the top 100 addresses is only 13.63%. This unreasonable token distribution will pose a great threat to the TON ecosystem in the future.
In addition to temporarily freezing inactive wallets, the community also voted to destroy half of the transaction fees to reduce the circulating supply, but currently only 350-400 $TON can be burned every day, which is a drop in the bucket for the initial circulation of 5 billion.
If the TON community has no way to dilute the $TON held by early whales, then directly investing in $TON still carries certain risks.
The misalignment between trading volume and market value usually indicates that the project is highly manipulated, not to mention that DWF Labs announced in June 2023 that it will contribute to the token economics, market making and liquidity provision of the TON ecosystem. DWF Labs' support includes investment and other ecosystem services.
DWF's trading method has always been to smash it down to the point of despair, but it can also pull you up to the point of suffocation with excitement!
Let’s see how the price trend of HIGH is this month? On 9.8, there was a large volume column, and it dropped directly to 2.8. You should still remember that when it was 6.2 dollars, I told everyone not to buy it. If you have bought it, sell it quickly, or you will die! (I personally think that for such a project with strong market control, the stronger it is, the more rules there are to follow)
Although brutal, it’s exciting!
Although the economic model is not optimistic, TON does have the opportunity to lead the crypto industry into the next era in terms of adoption. Moreover, even without the platform users of BN and Coinbase, TON's trend is still high. What will happen if the two powers join forces? Perhaps there are political reasons for mutual economic sanctions. The changeable friction between Russia and the United States makes it difficult to list on Coinbase. However, there is also Binance. The listing of not on Binance is a good move. Facing the world's largest exchange with 200 million users, don't you value the 900 million users backed by TG?
Telegram and TON lead crypto mass adoption
As the original initiator of TON, Telegram has a deep connection with the TON team. Telegram's CEO Du Rove once publicly supported TON in a statement, saying that he holds some Bitcoin and TON. This statement basically shows that TON and TG are tied together. Coupled with the current various strategies and coin price trends of the entire TG ecosystem and the TON ecosystem, it seems that they are catching up with sol and bnb!
Telegram also regards TON as the core of the Telegram ecosystem, providing web3 infrastructure support for all tApp developers in Telegram.
Currently, the official tApps that are connected to TON are mainly @wallet, a custodial wallet. More than 900 million users can directly call the wallet through the chat interface to transfer money at will, deposit and withdraw money directly through bank cards, and use @wallet to directly pay for many services in the Telegram ecosystem. For example, you can directly purchase Telegram Premium, or purchase a virtual eSIM phone card in @Mobile, and you can even use TON to trade usernames in Telegram.
The one-stop purchasing service directly empowers TON. Many public chains may have a complete ecosystem but do not have a usage scenario for connecting to traditional users, so they can only play in a small circle by themselves. TON is born with the protection of Telegram and enjoys the billions of traditional traffic and the most direct application scenarios brought by Telegram.
Image source: Su Bai Talks About Coins
(Excerpt from Blockchain Thinking)
In addition, Telegram also plans to launch more tApps in its ecosystem, which will further expand the functionality of TON, making it not just a cryptocurrency platform, but a comprehensive decentralized application ecosystem. This ecosystem will not only support cryptocurrency transactions, but also various decentralized applications and services. This will provide a simple and easy-to-use entry for traditional users, allowing them to easily access and use web3 technology.
The mass adoption of cryptocurrency is still a matter of threshold. In fact, many traditional users do not care about the degree of decentralization. They come to use the product, not to join the consensus. Many crypto fundamentalists cannot understand this. If you don’t care about decentralization, why would you use cryptocurrency?
I think this question is not a black-and-white choice. Web2 and web3 are now like two unrelated Layer1s, and they also need a cross-chain bridge, which we will call web2.5.
For example, the Telegram @wallet app is a custodial wallet. I used to say: No your key, no your coins. But now I find that this method can indeed allow traditional users to get in touch with cryptocurrency at a very low learning cost, sacrificing some decentralized features and lowering the threshold for entering the crypto industry. This is web2.5, and it is also the most direct path for cryptocurrency to be adopted on a large scale. First, through this channel, a large number of users are guided into the "yard" of the crypto industry, and then through more detailed education, some interested people are allowed to enter the truly decentralized "house".
TON is the best public chain committed to developing crypto mass adoption so far, and this is also its core competitiveness.
To sum up:
A project that has received 1.7 billion USD in membership fees since its birth is destined to be extraordinary. It has two fathers and a fan base of 900 million. In addition, the underlying technology is so smooth that it can compete with ETH and SOL. It is not too much to be in the top 5, right? Even if it cannot be in the top 5, this bull market is only halfway through. Combined with the four interest rate cuts announced by the Federal Reserve in 25 years, when the bull market comes, BTC will reach 90,000, ETH will reach 6,000, BNB will reach 900, SOL will reach 500, and TON will reach around 35 as long as it reaches a market value of 100 billion. The current price is 7.8, and it will be 4 times higher when it reaches 100 billion!
Of course, we also have to consider that those huge TON holdings are like the sword of Damocles hanging over our heads, reminding us that once a huge line column appears, it is time to escape.
If half of the tokens held by early investors can be diluted, then ton will be a strong support for BTC and ETH to move forward in the encryption field in the future. Because this method can bring more prosperity to the ecosystem, the price of the currency will rise, and the number of tokens will decrease, which is also a win-win situation. This depends on the community's later votes!
In short: the risk of this bull market will not be too great. The only thing to consider is the genius market maker DWF, who is also a crazy market maker. Remember their way of playing: closing the line after huge volume is the profit-taking.
Conclusion
I was writing well tonight, but suddenly it fell. Fans who are familiar with me know that during the time on Binance and Weibo, I always told everyone to save their bullets for the deep squat. Controlling risks is always more important than making profits in inappropriate positions! Never go all-in on altcoins. The market is pulling to the limit, but altcoins have no limit!
Don’t panic if you are holding spot stocks. You are destined to have a comeback in this bull market, and this is your chance. Arrange your positions and allocate funds well. Give priority to mainstream stocks, and then the targets with narratives in the second half of the year. If you can’t afford BTC, buy ETH. If you can’t afford Ethereum, buy BNB. If you can’t afford BNB, buy TON. If TON goes back to around 7 yuan, don’t hesitate.
The hot topics in the second half of the year are definitely the people corresponding to the US election in November and BNB after CZ was released from prison in November. ETH will have the benefits of ETFs in July, August, and September. The ecosystem of ton has exploded, and its traffic currently exceeds that of ETH. You can see how resilient it is!
Special thanks to: @My fans
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