June 14 U.S. macro data outlook: U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index preliminary value for June U.S. one-year inflation rate forecast for June

June 14 U.S. macro data outlook:

The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June

U.S. one-year inflation forecast for June

Recommended reading index: ★★

The University of Michigan data is a relatively important data source for the Federal Reserve. Its monthly statistics are also one of the important references for the Federal Reserve to better measure the US economic situation. The University of Michigan interviews 500-600 random residents to collect statistics on their current and future expectations of the United States. The June Consumer Confidence Index is based on the consumer sentiment of residents obtained through interviews.

At the same time, the respondents also responded to

The initial value is released in the middle of the month, which is forward-looking and the market reacts quickly.

The final value is released at the end of the month and gives the final result. The data has a delay, but it can affect the judgment of inflation in June.

Data weight: ★★★

Data impact: ★★★

Data: One-year inflation rate forecast: Previous value 3.3% Expected value 3.2% Consumer confidence index preliminary value: Previous value 69.1 Expected value 72
Announcement time: 22:00

Impact: The actual impact of this data is smaller than expected. This data can be used to manage expectations for the June inflation data, but a single data point cannot directly lead to larger market fluctuations.

One-year inflation expectations: If the published value is less than or equal to the expectation and lower than the previous value, the market will rise slightly or fluctuate sideways to remain stable; if the published value is greater than the expectation and equal to the previous value, the market will fluctuate sideways with a small probability of falling. If the published value is greater than the expectation and greater than the previous value, the market will fall directly.

Initial value of the Consumer Confidence Index: If the published value is equal to or greater than expected and higher than the previous value, consumer confidence will increase, the economy will be more active, which is bullish for US stocks and bearish for the crypto market. If the published value is less than expected and greater than the previous value, consumer confidence will increase but not as expected, and market volatility will be small. If the published value is lower than expected and lower than the previous value, consumer confidence will decline, economic activity will decrease, but it will be beneficial to inflation control and good for risk markets.

The two data tonight will actually have little impact on the risk market, but if the data shows that inflation expectations are in line with the decline and the consumer confidence index also declines, then it will bring better expectations that inflation will continue to be controlled and fall in June.

Because this week's CPI data showed that inflation has been initially controlled, although the expectation of interest rate cuts has been reduced by the dot plot and Powell's speech, if the inflation expectations for June also drop significantly, it will trigger more market imagination. If inflation in May and June is gradually decreasing, accompanied by the continued increase in unemployment, the market will have greater optimism about the Fed's interest rate cuts, and it will also save the depressed mood after the meeting on Wednesday this week.

Although the dot plot shows that the Fed may only cut interest rates once this year, and Powell emphasized that inflation focuses on PCE and unemployment focuses on wages, the market still has greater hopes for a second rate cut. If inflation expectations continue to decline in June and the unemployment rate continues to rise in June, the market's original expectations for the Fed's second rate cut will increase. In this case, September, which has been controversial recently, is likely to become the main anchor time for the rate cut.

Waiting for tonight's data, I emphasize again that tonight's data may not have much impact on the short-term market, but it will have a greater impact on expectations. Because the market needs imagination and expectations.

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