At the interest rate decision meeting in early May, the US Federal Reserve maintained the federal benchmark interest rate in the range of 5.25%-5.5%, achieving a six-month interest rate freeze. The Federal Reserve is currently holding a Federal Open Market Committee meeting and is expected to announce the latest interest rate decision at 2 a.m. tomorrow (the 13th).

In addition to the interest rate decision, the important indicator for measuring inflation [US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May] data will also be released at 20:30 today. Hawkish and dovish officials seem to have reached a consensus to continue to wait and see, and the published CPI data will determine whether the expected number of interest rate cuts this year is one or two, or no cut at all.

From the Bitcoin 4H level chart, we can see that the DIF line and the DEA line formed a dead cross in early June, which is usually a bearish signal, indicating that prices may fall further. However, with the recent price adjustment, the DIF line has begun to gradually approach the DEA line, suggesting that the market is about to rebound. The MACD histogram currently shows green, but as the green histogram gradually shortens, the market may be preparing for a reversal.

The KDJ three lines formed a low-level golden cross in early June (the K line crossed the D line upward), which was a bullish signal, but then fell back quickly, indicating that the upward momentum was insufficient. At present, the K line and the D line are close again, and the J line slightly turned upward, suggesting that there may be a small rebound in the short term.

The current price is between the middle and lower tracks of the 4H Bollinger Band, and the Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, indicating that the market volatility is low. Usually, after the Bollinger Band opening is narrowed, the market may usher in a new trend. Therefore, if the price can break through the middle track and continue to rise, a new upward trend may be formed; conversely, if the price falls below the lower track, it may continue to fall.

Comprehensive analysis: Bitcoin may rebound in the short term, but it is necessary to pay close attention to the changes in various indicators, especially the opening direction of the Bollinger Band and the intersection of the MACD line. If the price can steadily break through the 4H Bollinger Band middle track (68563) and the MACD line forms a golden cross, the rebound trend may be confirmed; otherwise, it is necessary to be vigilant about further downside risks.

Writing time: (2024-06-12, 18:00)

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