The fifth month was poor, the sixth month was short, and the ninth month was good. Although everyone's assets have shrunk a lot since June, we old investors have seen all kinds of storms. The sharp drop and surge in the currency circle are basic operations. What we have to do is to find a way to survive in this circle, and then time will naturally help us accumulate wealth. After going through several rounds of bull and bear markets, you will definitely understand what I mean. Without further ado, let's see what major events happened in the market during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday.
Friday's non-farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, which should be the fuse for this wave of decline. The May non-farm payrolls announced 272,000 new jobs, exceeding all Wall Street expectations. Hourly wages accelerated by 4.1%, exceeding expectations and the previous value of 3.9%. The only consolation for the market is the increase in the unemployment rate, but overall this non-farm payrolls is definitely not good for the market.
Against the backdrop of the non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations, CME continued to lower its expectations for rate cuts this year. Not to mention the FOMC on June 13, which is 100% unlikely. The expectation for a rate cut in July has also dropped to below 10%, and the probability of a rate cut in September has dropped to 50%. At its highest point last week, the probability was over 70%, which was definitely caused by the non-farm payrolls data. The probability of only one rate cut before the New Year has risen to 39%, and the probability of two rate cuts has dropped to 36%. Tomorrow night's CPI data and FOMC are both major macro events, which will not only affect expectations for rate cuts but also market conditions, so pay close attention to them.
Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of 131 million last Friday, completing 19 consecutive days of capital inflows. However, this record was broken last night. Fidelity, BCTO, BRRR, and GBTC all experienced capital outflows last night, while BlackRock's inflow was only 6.3 million. Therefore, there was a net outflow of 65 million yesterday. This data is an important reason for the continued decline of the market today.
The Ethereum Foundation has started to sell coins crazily again. A total of 15,455 ETH were sold last week. I believe everyone has seen the news, and then many people started to frantically fud Ethereum. In fact, I think it is a good thing that the foundation sells coins in a rhythmic manner. Any token increase requires a sufficient turnover rate. The foundation's coins are basically 0 cost. In the future, after the ETF is passed, the most important selling orders will basically be this type of early low-cost ETH. The foundation's shipments will increase the total market holding cost, and it is also a prerequisite for larger funds to enter the market to purchase goods.
Nate Geraci, president of ETF Store, an ETF expert who once accurately predicted that Ethereum's 19b-4 filing would be approved, brought another latest prediction yesterday. He believes that there may be new developments in the S-1 approval of Ethereum spot ETFs this week.
Global spot Bitcoin ETF holdings already account for 5% of the total BTC supply. This number will grow in the future. Imagine how much the price of Bitcoin will rise when ETF holdings reach 50% of the total. By then, the entire market should be de-retailized, so cherish the Bitcoin in your hands.
Market Analysis
BTC: The real violent bull market in the crypto market is in the third quarter, so everyone should have confidence and never give up. Whether it is a short-term adjustment or a decline, it is all for the accumulation of power for the big bull market. Take the spot and hold it firmly, especially the high-quality assets. At present, the market should pay attention to the position near 66,000. If the 4-hour level receives below 66,000, then short-term adjustments are inevitable, and the market still needs continuous baptism. At present, what everyone can do is to study and learn more, and at the same time, the more it falls, the more you should buy high-quality assets.
ETH: The foundation has been selling coins. When the market is going up, it has no impact on the price. But when the market is weak, the foundation's operations will definitely have a huge impact on market confidence. But I personally think that everyone does not need to be overly fud about the sale of coins. The ETH narrative is not a game of running fast. If low-priced chips are not changed hands, even if the ETF is approved, big funds will not dare to come. Only when the overall market funding cost continues to rise, subsequent buyers will be willing to continue to push up prices. Therefore, in the long run, the foundation's shipments are beneficial. And don't forget that there is still the ETF S-1 review at the end of June. This still has hype value, and the price will not always go down.
Another noteworthy news is that ZK will be airdropped next week. As one of the four major projects of the Ethereum L2 network, ZK is finally going to be launched, and the selected time is also in the second half of the month. I remember that ARB was launched on the 23rd, STRK was launched on the 20th, and ZK is expected to be launched between the 17th and 23rd. For such a popular project, there will definitely be certain hype expectations in the future. So, can its launch lead to a wave of L2 hype? Let us wait and see!
Personally, I think that Ethereum's L2 can be the focus of current layout, and ARB, OP, STRK, ENA, ETHFI, and LDO can be the focus of layout!
Market opportunities will always exist. In fact, as investors, the most important thing is to protect the principal, protect the principal, and protect the principal! Therefore, don’t worry about temporary gains and losses. What is more important is to keep your position alive before the trend comes!
The CPI data at 8:30 p.m. tomorrow is still quite important. Judging from the current trend, there is a high probability that there will be an opportunity for a bottoming out and rebound. After all, we must always believe that the bull market is still there and it is far from over! Therefore, temporary market weakness does not affect the long-term trend. We must ride on the trend and follow the trend! The deeper the decline, the deeper the squat, and the stronger the explosive power. Let's wait patiently for the arrival of the trend!
The US is about to hold a general election, and Europe has also begun to cut interest rates. The signals released after this Federal Reserve meeting should not be too bad. Buy when the price falls and you’re done!
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