Large analysis: BTC rate, BTC Volatility Index, BTC dominance, USDT+USDC dominance.
BTC COURSE:
The BTC rate spent the weekend in extremely low volatility. Between the volume levels of $69,000 and $69,740.
We are not changing our assessment of Friday's decline; it was a long squeeze. And although in the end the price returned to the downward trend from ATH on March 14 (according to our assessment, the main obstacle on the way to a new ATH) - the price did not go significantly lower. The EMA did not even test the 50 day TF. A retest of the breakdown of the local downward trend from May 21 was made and again we are seeing a push towards the downward trend from ATH on March 14.
The only thing that confuses me now is that since Saturday there has been a downward structure of candles on the day. Which can last until June 15-16. BUT we believe that she will be broken ahead of schedule. And with high probability we can say on what day - June 12. Based on data on consumer inflation in the United States and the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates.
For further growth, it is now important to break through:
- EMA 50 four-hour TF (currently $69,632),
- volume level $69,740,
- downward trend since March 14 (currently $70,030).
BTC PRICE VOLATILITY INDEX:
Continues indistinct movement, range with a decrease. The descending structure of daily candles periodically resets to zero and begins a new countdown. The index is at the level of February 2024 indicators. And then, let us recall, there were key volatility spikes and pumps for BTC throughout the current growth. This is not about a guarantee of#BTCprice growth, but about a high probability of a movement of more than 15-20% in one direction in the near future.
BTC DOMINATION:
Our expectations for the market remain bullish, including due to the reversal in BTC dominance. In the medium term, we expect a decline in dominance in the coming weeks and a test of the global downward trend since 2017. Somewhere around the volumetric level of 53.19%. Where is the EMA 50 of the weekly TF approaching?
Although on junior TFs the#BTCdominance has grown since May 29 and can be considered as a five-wave structure, where the fifth wave is just beginning. But even in this case, it will more likely be a local squeeze than a continuation of growth.
USDT+USDC DOMINANCE:
The dominance of#USDT+#USDCindicates a high probability of its decline. Since the last analysis on May 24, this dominance has not become stronger.
We wrote “An important test for the bulls will be a repeated attempt by the dominance of stablecoins to break through the EMA of the 50 day TF as resistance.” The attempt was made on June 7 just during the market correction. And the attempt was unsuccessful.
This is a rebound from the EMA; then we expect the dominance of stablecoins to continue to decline. And a breakdown of global trend support since June 2019, which has been tightening since May 20. Behind this trend is a bull run, friends.
To confirm the idea, you still need to wait for the breakout of the trend line. For now, the dominance of stablecoins is still squeezed between it and the EMA and there is some uncertainty.
$BTC
