June 5 Macroeconomic data forecast interpretation: 3. US May ISM non-manufacturing PMI attention ★★★
US May ISM non-manufacturing PMI is a comprehensive industry data other than manufacturing, and users measure the economic trend index other than manufacturing.
Non-manufacturing accounts for 80% of US GDP, and the index is also one of the reference indicators for measuring US inflation pressure.
Data influence: Single data ★★ Impact on short-term inflation expectations ★★★
Data credibility: ★★
50 is the data prosperity line. Above 50, it means that the non-manufacturing industry is expanding, and below 50 proves that it is shrinking.
Release time: 22:00
Data: Previous value 49.4 Expected 50.8, the market expects that the non-manufacturing industry is expanding rapidly.
Impact:
Higher than expected, higher than the previous value, the non-manufacturing industry is expanding rapidly, and economic activities are frequent, which is beneficial to the US economy and unfavorable to the risk market.
Lower than expected, higher than the previous value, the non-manufacturing industry stands firmly on the 50 prosperity line, and the non-manufacturing industry continues to maintain stable growth, which is not conducive to inflation control and risk markets.
Lower than expected and previous values, non-manufacturing continues to run below the 50 boom-bust line, the overall situation is shrinking, expectations for the US economy are getting worse, but it is conducive to inflation control.
The first two effects will be good for US stocks, but bad for the overall risk market. If it is lower than the previous value, it will be bad for US stocks in the short term, but it will be good for risk markets in the long term.
Logic:
Non-manufacturing data shows the economic status of the United States from a certain perspective. If the economic status begins to decline, it will be good for inflation control and the market's optimistic expectations for the Fed's short-term interest rate cuts in the future, but the short-term economic downturn will be a pressure on US stock companies. On the contrary, if the data shows that non-manufacturing continues to expand, then the US economy will continue to accelerate, which is not conducive to inflation control and interest rate cuts.
Note:
This data is also one of the reference data for US economic activities and inflation control pressure, but this week it is also only used as a record, not as an important market reference, but this data may affect the subsequent adjustment parameters for US inflation expectations in May.
