The market is experiencing extremely low volatility, with current Garman-Klass Realized Volatility (3-months) indicators, which measure the realized volatility of Bitcoin price, having dropped to 20%. The chart shows that similar indicators over the last 6 years have led to rapid changes in Bitcoin price.
The second metric, the Volatility Index (SMA-30d), which includes normalized data on inflow and outflow streams on all cryptocurrency exchanges and normalized data of taker orders, similarly shows a significant reduction. Essentially, this metric presents data that can influence Bitcoin price, and as we see on the chart, the metric has dropped to extremely low levels, which have only been seen four times in the last six years.
The third chart shows the structure of the bull market based on the Adjusted MVRV (30DMA/365DMA) metric, showing that the current bull market structure resembles that of the 2015-2018 market. We have already passed halfway, and so far, everything is going well, without the turbulence seen in the previous cycle.
Conclusions:
Given that the market's current structure remains bullish and that the end of the low volatility period could be followed by a strong price movement, it can be concluded that the market is in the process of forming a new bullish trend.
Written by AxelAdlerJr
