-【Replay】-

Yesterday's analysis was relatively inaccurate. It did break through 69300-69600, but the highest was only 70288, and it did not reach 70500 or above. In addition, yesterday's pull-up was not big enough. It is still fluctuating. By the way, yesterday's support was 68200-68400, which was written wrong. I reflect on it and pay attention to it.

-【Today's Market Analysis】-

Old Wine Trading Diary: Daily Interpretation 6.4

① Intraday ultra-short-term pressure: 70400-70700

Even if the market breaks through the previous high of 70288 formed last night, I think it is easy to encounter resistance and fall back between 70400-70700. Of course, if it breaks through, it must be accompanied by volume. If it can break through here, 72000 will naturally not pose much threat.

② Intraday ultra-short-term support: 68300-68500

Short-term long-short watershed. If it can hold in this area, it will probably rush to the upper pressure position. Once it falls below, it will be warned. If it falls below 67700 again, the rebound will end and it will turn into a new round of decline.

Summary: The big one is coming soon. Whether it is up or down, we will continue to see the fluctuations in the next two days. The volatile market is almost over. The trend market is almost here.

-【Digital Currency News】-

Despite the differences between the CFTC and the SEC, the FIT21 bill is still a "watershed moment" for cryptocurrency.

FIT21 is the first digital asset legislation in U.S. history to pass both houses of Congress. The bill received strong bipartisan support. 71 Democrats and 208 Republicans passed the bill by a two-to-one margin.

It also suggests that the political winds in Washington, D.C. may be changing. The cryptocurrency industry is more organized than ever before. We are now fully prepared to advocate for smart policy,” said Kristin Smith, CEO of the Blockchain Association.

The U.S. House Financial Services Committee described the passage of FIT21 as a “watershed moment for the U.S. digital asset ecosystem” in a press release on May 22.

Not only did FIT21 have greater bipartisan support than its strongest backers expected, but a third of House Democrats, including Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi, backed it.

However, Zach Zweihorn, a partner at law firm Davis Polk, said this coincided with a “change of heart” at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The agency approved an Ethereum spot market exchange-traded fund on May 23, which was a huge shift in itself.

Equally important, the May 16 Congressional Review Act vote to overturn Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 “passed the Senate with 60 votes, including votes from prominent Democrats like Chuck Schumer,” Zweihorn added. This makes it easier for heavily regulated financial institutions and companies to act as custodians for digital assets.

However, one potential point of friction with FIT21 is its “dual agency” regulatory regime. Digital assets will be regulated by either the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), depending on the degree of decentralization of their underlying network or project.

"Having two regulators (SEC and CFTC) could create confusion for market participants. We hope to see the Senate explore this issue further as it drafts its own legislation," Smith said.

Some argue that a dual agency structure has merit, but it will only further limit the SEC’s ability to inhibit innovation in crypto and blockchain. FIT21 should help reduce some of the SEC’s power over the crypto space. Currently, under [Chairman Gary] Gensler, the SEC has too much control and its decisions hinder blockchain innovation in the U.S. This legislative framework takes the first step by suggesting that there should be a limiting principle to limit the SEC’s jurisdiction, which is clearer than Chairman Gensler’s unlimited and lawless approach.

What are the chances that FIT21, or some form of it, will be signed into law in 2024, a US election year?

Although we can't say forever, given the limited time left on the legislative calendar in an election year, it would be a huge boost if FIT 21 could pass the Senate this year. The chances of the bill passing are high. Judging from the polls, the Democrats are lagging behind the Republicans in many key battleground states. In order to win the support of independents, the Democratic Party has begun to shift its position and take a more pro-crypto approach.

So, are you looking forward to it?

Personal point of view, only for reference