Next week's macroeconomic data and its impact on the market;
Monday, June 3,
21:45 The final value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in May. The release of this value will allow users to judge the overall situation of the US manufacturing industry in May, and thus infer whether the economic situation is operating normally. The current value of the data is 50.9, and the expected value is 50.9. The manufacturing PMI in April is stronger than that in March. However, under the premise that the overall adjustment of GDP in the first quarter is weaker, this value may meet expectations or be lower than expected.
The impact on market price trends is relatively weak.
22:00, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI in May, compared with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, the ISM data can more intuitively show the situation of the US economy. The current value is 49.2, and the expected value is 49.6. According to the current US purpose of using data to maintain its own economic strength, this value is basically lower than expected, higher than the previous value, and remains neutral, bringing expectations. The economy continues to remain strong, but the strength is lower than market expectations, which is beneficial to inflation control and enhances carefulness.
The impact on market price trends is conducive to inflation control, interest rate cut expectations, and the market, and the volatility will not be too large. It is mixed for US stocks and has a weakening effect on the US dollar.
On Wednesday, June 5,
At 20:15, the US ADP employment in May was released, commonly known as the small non-farm, which is used to measure the employment data of the US private sector. The current previous value is 19.2 and the expected value is 17.5. If the data is higher than the previous value, it proves that the company is expanding and the economy is improving. If it is lower than the previous value, it proves that the company is shrinking and the economy is slowing down. However, based on the current previous value and expected value, the expected published value should be higher than expected and lower than the previous value. Economic activity slowed down, but it still remained strong above expectations.
If the data meets expectations, it will have little impact on the crypto market in the short term and will encourage the stock market.
However, it should be noted that since last year, in the US economy under strong data, many large companies, especially technology companies, have been laying off employees, so the small non-farm data may not be able to more intuitively judge the current economic situation in the United States.
21:45 Canada's central bank interest rate decision on June 5, the previous value was 5.00%, and the expected value was 4.75%. The market expects that the Bank of Canada may cut interest rates. If the interest rate is cut, it will be bad for the Canadian dollar, which will affect the United States' imports and exports, investment and other fields. If it remains the same as the previous value, it will be good for the Canadian dollar.Because there is a lack of recent research on Canada's economic situation, we will not make too many judgments and expectations here.
The final value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in May, like the final value of the manufacturing industry on Monday, is one of the indicators used to judge the US economic situation, especially as the service industry, 70% of the US GDP is basically generated by the service industry. The PCE index in April also maintained a high value due to the influence of the service industry.
The previous value was 54.8, and there is no expected value yet. Personal expectations that the service industry index will not be too weak, may be the same as the previous value or even exceed the previous value.
If it is announced according to the expected value, it will be unfavorable for optimistic inflation expectations, and of course the impact on the risk market will be small in the short term.
22:00, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI in May, basically the largest proportion of non-manufacturing is also the service industry, the current previous value is 49.4, and the expected value is 51. The market expects that the value may rise, which is not conducive to the inflation data in May, and the impact is small.
22:30, EIA crude oil inventory for the week of May 31 in the United States. This data can effectively understand the current crude oil inventory data in the United States. It is also one of the important data for measuring the US oil price. The impact of US energy prices and related energy industries and transportation industries is not only affected by external international crude oil prices, but also the supply and demand relationship of the content will affect the price trend. The data is currently 4.156 million barrels less than the previous value. The decrease in inventory proves that the demand for crude oil has increased and the price has risen. The increase in inventory announced in this period means that the demand for crude oil market has weakened and the price has fallen, which is helpful for controlling inflation.
Thursday, June 6,
20:30 The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States at the beginning of the week to June 1 is also data that can be used to judge the US employment market. However, because of the large and small non-agricultural data before and after, the impact of this data this week has been greatly weakened and can be temporarily ignored.
Friday, June 7,
20:30 The US unemployment rate in May is an important data for measuring the US employment market. It is also an important data that affects US inflation data and promotes the Fed's possible interest rate cuts. The previous value was 3.9%, and the expected value was 3.9%. The published value refers directly to the view mentioned by Mr. Ni before. When the unemployment rate reaches 4%, it will trigger the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates. Therefore, once the value is higher than the expected and previous value, it will be good for the market. However, according to the Fed's current idea of temporarily avoiding talking about interest rate cuts, the data is basically the same as the expected and previous values, and there is a probability that it will be lower than expected, which means that the US job market remains strong and the economic outlook is better, which is not conducive to inflation control and interest rate cut expectations.
It has a positive effect on the US stock market. Strong employment data also means that companies are expanding and the economic outlook is better, but it is bearish for the entire risk market, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has been greatly weakened.
The effect of the US non-farm payrolls in May is the same as the unemployment rate. Employment data is also one of the important factors showing the situation of the US job market. The previous value of this value was 17.5, and the expected value was 19. The expected employment population increased, but once it meets expectations, the job market may be overheated in the short term, and the pressure on inflation control will increase. I personally expect that the data should be lower than expected, but equal to or higher than the previous value, which means that the job market is still strong but not overheated, and the inflation pressure will not be too great. At the same time, there is also reason not to talk about interest rate cuts.
Once the data is released in accordance with expectations, it will be bearish for the crypto market and have a positive effect on the US stock market in the short term.
For the risk market under the release of US data, let me summarize it for everyone-the market under expectation regulation.
The Federal Reserve still relies on various expectations to balance the strong economy, inflation can be controlled, and at the same time, there is no possibility of interest rate cuts.
