Is macro analysis applicable to micro results?
Macro analysis is just a concept. Following the direction of macro is wrong. Looking at the macro will make you lose money!
Sorry, I still can't help but complain. This is the conclusion I have seen several times from last year to now. Regarding the view of macroeconomics, many people are sneerful, and even think that macro analysis is "dead" for trading.
Macro is actually a perspective, a perspective to observe the financial market. So we can understand that there are actually more perspectives to observe the market. According to the perspective problem, I also checked the information and share it with you briefly:
Macro analysis: used to evaluate the overall economic environment, predict market trends, and provide guidance for long-term investment strategies.
Micro analysis: help understand the market performance of individual companies or industries, and make specific investment decisions
Technical analysis: used for short-term trading decisions and identify buy and sell signals.
Fundamental analysis: used for long-term investment decisions and find undervalued stocks.
Quantitative analysis: used for risk management, asset allocation and portfolio optimization.
Behavioral finance analysis: explain abnormal market fluctuations and bubble phenomena, and formulate more reasonable investment strategies.
Event-driven analysis: capture short-term trading opportunities and arbitrage based on event impacts.
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) analysis: Provide guidance for investors who focus on sustainable development and social responsibility.
The above is a rough breakdown of the perspectives in the traditional financial field. We can see that there are many perspectives to observe the market, and the conclusions and applicable scenarios drawn from different perspectives are different.
Analysis is to use multi-angle and multi-dimensional perspectives to understand and view the market, and then draw conclusions based on the expectations you want to achieve.
In fact, many bigwigs have several of the above categories. Although they are not omnipotent, they will refer to more angles to analyze the results. However, everyone's expectations and goals are different. If you tell someone who looks at the bull and bear cycles about short-term returns, it is a hooligan. And if you tell someone who pursues short-term profits how good the value returns will be in the future, it is also a hooligan. Everyone has different expectations, so the desired results are also different, and the theories used are also different.Only with rational judgment and reasonable application can you find the one that suits you. There is never the best strategy, only the one that suits you best.
Just like metaphysics, why do some people become masters after learning it, while others become charlatans?
The core reason is that after learning it, some people understand that even if it is metaphysics, it still gives us a reference value, which needs to be combined with many variables in life for reference, so the final conclusion may not be correct, and the answer that can be given to you is also vague.
And some people, after learning it, stereotype that the result is certain, then excessive affirmation and recognition become extreme, leading to the ultimate gain and loss, even self-doubt, and finally madness.
Therefore, whether it is macro, micro or technology, etc., everyone learns and judges with reference to various perspectives, and various bigwigs on the Internet are also constantly learning things from other perspectives to verify their own thinking patterns. This is a kind of self-growth and verification.
You tell the macroeconomics whether Bitcoin will rise or fall by 1,000 points today, just like you tell the microeconomics technical experts when the interest rate cut will trigger financial risks in the future. Everyone may have their own opinions, but many people have not expressed them all. This does not mean that they will not.
The audience must understand what results they want before deciding what content they want.
You want to open a contract today, but if you look at the macroeconomic theory content, you are lucky if you lose less. The judgment of the big cycle that the macroeconomics emphasizes is the expectation of the overall return of the asset, and short-term fluctuations are not considered. Your goal is to make short-term money by contract, so if you read the content that ignores short-term risks, you will find that you lose money.
Similarly, you want to hoard coins until the bull market, but you look at the short-term view and think that it will plummet. As a result, you sell the chips and can never get them back. The same reason. The short-term trading plummet may be 10,000 points, but your Bitcoin cost may be 30,000. Why should you worry? Why are you afraid? This is because you don’t understand what you want!
The short-term benefits of micro-technology come from strength, and similarly, the asset growth of macro-analysis over large cycles also comes from strength.
Many people may think that if they don't trade at the macro level, they will lose money if they do, but little do they know that people who do macro analysis will also use the country's micro judgment and technology to do short-term trading, but the investment ratio is different.
There are also many people who think that micro technology has been making good money and the returns are very good, but little do they know that a year's profit, a mistake in the big cycle may result in a big return drawdown.
In fact, in the primary and secondary markets, as long as your money does not leave the transaction, it is not strictly yours.
The human perspective is too slow, so slow that sometimes they only care about the fluctuations of an hour or a few hours. Therefore, in this kind of slow perspective, many people cannot see the cyclicality of the next 1, 3, or 5 years, resulting in only hearing the legend of others' sudden wealth and freedom one day later. Little do they know how many times they have been tortured in small cycles, and finally persisted to the victory of the big cycle!
The macro looks at the big picture, and the micro technology looks at the details. At this time, all kinds of technical angles must be combined, and everyone respects and recognizes each other, and then learning from each other is the kingly way.
