Currently, BTC is quoted at around 28930. The market experienced a night of volatile decline and failed to rebound and stabilize above 29000. It further accelerated its decline and hit around 28680. The previously predicted opening of the downward channel has occurred, and the speed of decline may accelerate, especially when news problems frequently occur.
In terms of news, there are some key issues:
1. CRV faces liquidation: CRV was attacked, resulting in a loss of 40 million US dollars, and may face liquidation issues, which may bring chain effects.
2. Base chain was attacked: The public chain and projects issued by CB, the world's second largest exchange, encountered problems. Some projects withdrew from the pool and were locked in. The base public chain was also attacked, causing many projects to be forced to shut down, which may cause market instability.
3. MRK stablecoin issue: MRK bets on US Treasury bonds, but the market share of the supported stablecoin DAI continues to decline, and stablecoin competition will become more intense.
4. SEC goes all-out on Ripple: The SEC recently won the Ripple case, but is now investigating again on the core question of whether Ripple’s XRP should be classified as a security. If the theory is overturned, the Ripple case could see a major reversal and the market could be affected.
Overall, the negative factors in the market have increased, and a chain reaction may occur. However, the chain reaction may be driven by emotions, similar to the previous FTX incident, rather than a disaster like the big crash. Although the current market is not optimistic, as long as the overall framework does not collapse, the short-term setbacks are only temporary, and there is still hope for the future.
Trend direction: It is not recommended to go long blindly at present. You can open short conservatively and set the support level between 28500 and 28000-27500. If the market drops directly to around 27500, the situation will not be optimistic.
Trading strategy: It is recommended to continue to short at highs in the near future. Placing short orders at high levels is a relatively safe strategy. The possibility that the main force may pull up and explode the contract cannot be ruled out, so placing short orders at high levels can reduce risks. If you are worried about missing out, you can use the aggressive position building method of split positions, first open a first position, and then gradually cover the position.
Spot: When there are many negative factors in the market, spot can be temporarily opened, non-long-term holdings can be liquidated according to the situation, and long-term holdings can choose to cover positions at a lower point. Pay attention to the Defi sector, AI sector and L2 sector, which are the core sectors of the new round of bull market.