Macroeconomic view of the world: The positive sentiment of PCE has not been consolidated and continued, and the market fell.
US stocks
This week, the important US PCE data for April has been released. It can be said that it has exceeded many people's expectations and is in line with expectations. The data shows that the Fed's inflation has slowed down, but it is still not optimistic enough. The Fed has no reason to talk about interest rate cuts in advance.
After the data was released, US stocks rose and fell. Many people here don't understand why the US stock crypto market did not rise but fell when the data was obviously favorable.
In fact, I have to explain here. First of all, the first quarter GDP data adjusted yesterday, from 1.6 to 1.3, the data was revised weak, indicating that although the US economy has maintained growth, it has been slowly reducing its heat. The revised reduction of GDP has also led to a reduction in US stock investors' expectations for the future of enterprises. This is one.
Second, in today's PCE data, the prices of goods and services have increased, but the PCE value remains flat, indicating that residents' willingness to consume has gradually decreased, and the reduction in consumption willingness has once again deepened the effect of reducing corporate future profit expectations.
Although the monthly rate of PCE data tonight is positive, there is no subsequent fermentation, that is to say, although PCE has weakened, it is still not too optimistic. If accompanied by dovish speeches by Fed officials, it may be useful, but it is not so at present, so US stocks began to fall slightly in the context of the decline of technology stocks.
Next week is the window period for the Fed's speech, so the small positive of PCE is basically based on the premise that no one consolidates and interprets it, and it is estimated that it will close with a decline on Friday.
US dollar and US bonds
Although the positive of PCE has not been reflected in the risk market, it has caused the US dollar index to fall further. However, due to the interest rate cut in Europe, the US dollar index did not fall below 104, but rebounded and continued to return to around 104.65.
However, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell below 4.5% and currently remains around 4.499%. If the yield continues to fall, this may be the best positive way for the risk market in the short term.
Gold and crude oil
After the release of the PCE data, gold and crude oil prices fell sharply in the short term. The decline was partly due to the increasingly optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts caused by PCE, but it was also due to the emotional factors of capital outflow and risk aversion before the market closed on Friday.However, at present, gold is around 2300 and crude oil is around 80, and there is still a clear support sentiment, especially under the premise of continued brewing in geopolitical aspects.
BTC futures spot
CME Bitcoin futures index is currently quoted at around 67,800. After completing the delivery of weekly and monthly futures options today, the bullish sentiment in the futures market has gradually increased under the PCE data, and currently maintains a positive premium of 400 points with the spot. The bullish sentiment is still good.
