The downward structure for BTC on the daily TF remains the same. If it is not broken, it will remain until June 4-5. Tuesday-Wednesday next week.
Buyers cannot break through even the nearest resistance: local trend lines and the very important level of $69,000 (ATH of the last cycle and volume level). The RSI of the daily TF is shrinking towards the level of 50, but for now it is holding. But the MACD on the daily TF gives bearish signals.
Until the price on the daily TF consolidates above $69,000, we are definitely waiting for the EMA test of the 50 day TF (currently $65,720). This is the cornerstone support. Especially if the price comes to it on June 4-5. Then we can see a powerful reversal formation during the day. And the fate of the uptrend will depend on the ability of the bulls to break through the downward trend since March 14 (currently $70,315).
What is important is that around June 4-5, while maintaining the downward structure, the BTC Price Volatility Index should show a reversal. There, since the release of the last analysis on May 29, the range went into a full decline during the day. And the descending structure, if not broken, should also unfold in these days. Very likely - a strong impulse, a large green candle on the Index.
In recent months, we have clearly predicted the Index's upward and downward reversals, and the reversal candlestick formations did not fail. This made it possible to predict both February pumps. Since October 2023, our reversal forecasts for the Index have been processed late only 3 times out of 17.
Now the Volatility Index shows anomalies in the movement - stagnation and an attempt to break the ascending structure. Analysts are already paying attention to the fact that the current low volatility of BTC lasts 42 days. And that in the past such stagnations preceded pumps.
Our expectation is that the Volatility Index exits this anomaly and promises a movement for the BTC price of 20-25% from the current one. Up or down? Up, as the final growth impulse since the beginning of May, the final fifth wave.
