Reprinted from: China News Service
On the 15th local time, the United States ushered in another historic moment. Former President Trump arrived at the Manhattan Court in New York to stand trial for the "hush money" case - making him the first former president in American history to face a criminal trial.
Trump has been in court many times before for financial fraud, defamation, etc. But unlike civil cases, this criminal case has the possibility of sending him to jail.
From April 8 to 10, Trump tried to postpone the trial of the case for three consecutive days, but failed. What criminal charges might Trump face in his first criminal trial? Will he go to jail immediately? What impact will this have on the outside world's expected "second showdown" between him and Biden in the US election?
A piece of scandalous news
With a sum of money eight years ago
The story of Trump becoming the "protagonist" in a criminal trial in a Manhattan court in New York started with a sex scandal.
Back to the 2016 U.S. presidential election, Trump's campaign manager and lawyer Michael Cohen paid $130,000 in hush money to adult film actress Stormy Daniels, asking Daniels not to exaggerate her affair with Trump many years ago during the election.
In 2018, U.S. federal prosecutors charged Cohen with paying hush money to Daniels, alleging that he was suspected of committing "campaign property crimes."
After nearly five years of investigation, the Manhattan District Attorney's Office in New York formed a grand jury to hear evidence in the case in January 2023. Subsequently, Cohen testified that Trump instructed him to pay hush money in order not to "influence the 2016 presidential election."
On March 30, 2023, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg filed a criminal complaint against Trump, accusing him of allegedly engaging in falsification of records in an attempt to "benefit his campaign by identifying and purchasing negative information about him to prevent its release."
Trump has repeatedly denied that the payment to Cohen was intended to "cover up the sex scandal" and said the money he gave Cohen at the time was to "reimburse legal fees."
34 Class E felonies
Trump could be sentenced to up to 136 years in prison?
The Associated Press reported that under New York state law, the charge of falsifying business records that Trump faces is a Class E felony. The public indictment shows that Trump is guilty of 34 felonies of falsifying records, with a minimum sentence of 1.3 years and a maximum sentence of 4 years for each count. If all counts are calculated at the maximum sentence, he could be sentenced to a maximum of 136 years in prison.
However, this 136 years is only theoretical. The judge can decide whether to order Trump to serve each charge concurrently or sequentially during the actual sentencing process. New York State's maximum sentence for a Class E felony is 20 years.
"Because the felony charges against Trump involve neither violence nor drugs...for a defendant with no criminal record, I think the result will be that he will be sentenced to probation," New York attorney Mitchell Epner told USA Today.
Anna Kominsky, a criminal law professor at New York Law School, agreed with the expectation of probation, saying, "This is a case that does not involve any physical violence, and there is no 'designated victim,' so the court will take that into account as well."
Diana Florence, a criminal lawyer at the Manhattan District Attorney's Office, said that even if New York Supreme Court Judge Juan Mercon ruled to "detain" Trump, the Court of Appeals would set a bail threshold for Trump, allowing him to remain free during the appeal.
"I think there's less than a 1% chance that Trump will go to jail immediately, whenever he's convicted, because he'll be immediately released on bail pending appeal," Florence said.
Despite facing a criminal trial, Trump continues to challenge legal boundaries, and under a gag order, he clashed with Merkle, who could decide his fate.
Recently, Trump published a long article on his own social media platform "Truth Social", fiercely criticizing Murkhen, calling him a "hater" and calling on him to recuse himself from the case. Trump said that Murkhen's daughter works in Biden's Democratic camp and it is "absolutely impossible" for him to get a "fair trial."
John Mosco, a New York attorney with the Manhattan District Attorney's office, noted that such behavior could increase the severity of any sentence Trump faces. "If I were (Trump's) legal representative, I would advise him that the judge is the one who imposes the sentence and he should be careful."
According to CNN, the criminal trial of the "hush money" case will last 6 to 8 weeks. This means that Trump will have to appear in court 4 days a week in the next two months, which may delay his campaign schedule.
Trump wants to fight a "tough legal battle"
How to disrupt the US election?
In addition to this case, Trump is currently facing three criminal charges - interfering in the federal presidential election, interfering in the Georgia presidential election, and improper handling of confidential documents. These four cases are extensive, covering a total of 91 charges.
US media said that the "hush money" case may be the only one of the four criminal cases facing Trump that can go to trial before the presidential election on November 5 this year.
Some legal experts believe that the severity of the hush money case is relatively low compared to the other three. CNN said that its political impact may be smaller than the other three criminal trials Trump is about to face. The other three trials involve constitutional and legal issues related to presidential power.
"Trump's first criminal trial is a special historical moment for the United States," CNN commented. "When the Republican presidential candidate walks into court for trial, he and the country will enter a new reality - because law and politics collide in this trial, which is sure to deepen the painful ideological divide among Americans."
Analysts believe that if Trump is convicted, the result could deal a blow to his campaign prospects.
According to an earlier Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, more than half of voters in swing states in the United States said they would not vote for Trump if he was found guilty. However, 40% of voters in swing states still said they would still vote for him even if he was found guilty, and another 7% have not yet decided.
In addition, US media said that if Trump is convicted, it will also cause the US legal system to face unprecedented problems. For example, whether Trump will go to jail during the campaign; if Trump wins the election, when will he serve his sentence, etc.
Although the 77-year-old former US president has refused to plead guilty to nearly 100 charges, it is undeniable that the ensuing lawsuits will bring more trouble to his campaign.
Column Editor: Zhang Wu
Text editor: Lu Xiaochuan
Title image source: Xinhua News Agency/AFP
Photo editor: Shao Jing
