Macroeconomics and news:
This week's focus is Friday's PCE data. I did an analysis and forecast last weekend. My expectation is that the PCE data will not improve, which means consolidating the optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts this year. Of course, the data will not directly be negative. Just like the Fed's recent "Tai Chi" Kung Fu, the data regulation may be slightly higher than expected, with a small negative impact, but the market reaction will not be too large, and the difficulty and pressure of inflation control will continue to be emphasized.
In fact, there is something I want to say, and it's like opening a special topic. Instead of discussing when the Fed will cut interest rates, we might as well discuss what harm will be caused by the Fed's interest rate cut, and then see whether these harms are eliminated one by one, so as to reverse the Fed's interest rate cut. After all, the central banks of various countries are all worried about the Fed's interest rate cut. Maybe we can use reverse thinking appropriately.
Of course, there is a small probability that Friday's data will be significantly negative, but at present, the previous data does not support it, so the probability is small. As long as the market does not break the optimistic expectation of this year's interest rate cut, the small negative impact of the basic single PCE data may just test the support of BTC/ETH.
