Focus on the macroeconomic market situation:
The two U.S. Treasury auctions on Tuesday did not achieve good results. After the government prepared to issue 40 billion new bonds, the market faced a large supply-side increase, which led to a decline in bond prices and a rise in yields. Under the high yields of bonds, the risk market, especially the U.S. stock market, faced a greater test, especially before the release of the PCE index on Friday. At present, the market is mainly concerned about three points:
1. The rise in bond prices has suppressed the investment sentiment of the risk market,
2. Traders are more pessimistic about the optimistic expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut this year, and the investment sentiment has declined,
3. At present, the U.S. stock market is at a price-earnings ratio of 22 times, and it is also at a high price and a high risk, which makes traders more cautious.
In terms of macroeconomic sentiment, today's auction of 40 billion Treasury bonds will continue to be watched by the market, and the PCE data on Friday will be released soon, and the market is also waiting for more opportunities.
A U.S. economic Beige Book will be released early this morning. The data may show the recent growth momentum of the U.S. economic activity, and Powell also said that if there is no more reason to prove that inflation is approaching 2%, he will not be too optimistic about the issue of interest rate cuts.
In the market, the S&P 500 futures index is currently relatively stable under the pressure of Friday's PCE index. The chief stock strategist of Citi believes that under the influence of Friday's data, the volatility will fluctuate by 0.5% around the cost of long and short positions, which is basically a relatively mild forecast.
In terms of international gold, although the price has fallen again and the intraday rise is mild, it is still strong and stable around US$2,345. In fact, for the price of gold, whether the United States continues to maintain high interest rates or cuts interest rates, it cannot prevent the rise of gold. Perhaps the best way at present is to solve internal and external risk factors and rebuild the credit of the US dollar.
In terms of international crude oil, the intraday trend is also relatively mild, continuing to remain around 83.4. In the Middle East geopolitical issues, Israel has announced that the United Nations relief organization targeting the Gaza Strip is a terrorist organization, which has shocked everyone's get off work. This is tantamount to propaganda from another level with members supporting the organization, including Canada. Once the member states of the relief organization begin to fight back and eventually define Israel or Neta as a terrorist organization, it is estimated that the situation will escalate again.
Currently, the Bitcoin futures index maintains a negative premium of about 50 with the spot price. The bullish sentiment in the futures market has obviously declined. Risk markets including the United States and cryptocurrencies are waiting for the economic Beige Book tonight and the PCE index on Friday to guide the sentiment.
