The week is mostly quiet in terms of macroeconomic events, but there are several very important events according to data from the US. All of them are concentrated on two days - Thursday and Friday. We are talking about US GDP, as well as the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index and the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index. When these data are published, we expect increased volatility in the market.
Also during the week there will be a lot of data on national currencies, which are included in the formula for calculating the US Dollar Index #DXY. But we donât expect a surge in volatility when these data are published. They are more important in the long term.
Monday, May 27:
UK - Bank holidays.
USA - Memorial Day.
- 20:45 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 22:45 Astana time - Speech by US Federal Reserve member Williams (a member with âdovishâ rhetoric and voting rights).
Tuesday, May 28:
- 07:55 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 09:55 Astana time - Speech by US Federal Reserve member Bowman (permanent chairman, closer to the âhawksâ).
- 07:55 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 09:55 Astana time - Speech by US Federal Reserve member Mester (a member with âhawkishâ rhetoric and voting rights).
- 08:00 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 10:00 Astana time - Basic consumer price index from the Bank of Japan. Important for assessing the consequences of monetary policy and yen inflation/deflation. The yen is included in the formula for calculating the DXY US Dollar Index (which has an inverse correlation with the crypto market). Also important because of Japan's return to the crypto market.
- 16:55 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 18:55 Astana time - Speech by FOMC member Kashkari (a member with âhawkishâ rhetoric without a casting vote).
- 17:00 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 19:00 Astana time - CB consumer confidence index in the USA. Reflects the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator that predicts consumer spending that is part of economic activity. High numbers indicate consumer optimism. Here we are talking about the prospects for the American economy as a whole, the risk of recession. Also, consumer spending is a factor in inflation, which the US Federal Reserve is fighting.
Wednesday, May 29:
- 20:45 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 22:45 Astana time - Speech by US Federal Reserve member Williams (a member with âdovishâ rhetoric and voting rights).
- 21:00 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 23:00 Astana time - Publication of the âBeige Bookâ of the US Federal Reserve (economic review by state). Important for understanding the general situation in the American economy and the risks of recession.
Thursday, May 30:
- 02:00 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 04:00 Astana time - Speech by US Federal Reserve member Bostic (with dovish rhetoric and voting rights).
- 09:00 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 11:00 Astana time - Swedish GDP for the first quarter of 2024. Important for the Swedish krona, which is included in the formula for calculating the DXY Index.
- 10:00 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 12:00 Astana time - Swiss GDP for the first quarter of 2024. Important for the Swiss franc, which is included in the formula for calculating the DXY Index.
 âïž- 15:30 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 17:30 Astana time - US GDP for the first quarter of 2024, GDP deflator. US foreign trade balance in goods. Important for assessing the general situation in the American economy and its prospects. Recession risks. The first data from April 25, we recall, were significantly worse than forecasts. What âshakenâ the market and helped the downward trend until the end of last month.
 âïž - 15:30 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 17:30 Astana time - Weekly number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the USA. The labor market is important for the US Federal Reserve's interest rate actions.
- 19:05 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 21:05 Astana time - Speech by US Federal Reserve member Williams (a member with âdovishâ rhetoric and voting rights).Â
- 21:50 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 23:50 Astana time - Speech by the head of the Bank of England, Bailey. Important for the pound sterling factored into the DXY calculation.
- 23:30 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 01:30 new day Astana time - US Federal Reserve balance sheet. It will show how things are going in the financial sector, whether there is a possibility of âturning on the printing press.â For now, at least a drop in withdrawal rates is expected, because the QT policy is coming to an end. The Fed will slow its balance sheet shrinkage by lowering the Treasury redemption limit from $60 billion to $25 billion per month as early as this week, effective June 1.
Friday, May 31st:
- 02:50 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 04:50 Astana time - Volume of industrial production in Japan. Important for assessing crisis risks.
- 04:30 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 06:30 Astana time - Data pool on the Chinese economy. Composite PMI, Manufacturing Business Index (PMI), Non-Manufacturing Business Index (PMI). Important for assessing crisis risks. Plus, because of the Hong Kong factor for the crypto market, if China does enter the cryptocurrency market through this window.
- 12:00 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 14:00 Astana time - Basic consumer price index and EU consumer price index. Important for assessing euro inflation risks. The Euro is the key currency in the DXY Index calculation formula.
 âïž - 15:30 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 17:30 Astana time - Basic price index of personal consumption expenditures and Price index of personal consumption expenditures in the USA. Expenses of individuals in the USA. Indices are important for assessing the results of the US Federal Reserve's fight against consumer inflation. One of the key metrics for assessing the success of the fight. Will affect interest rate forecasts until the end of 2024.
- 15:30 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 17:30 Astana time - Canadian GDP for the first quarter of 2024. Important for the Canadian dollar, which is included in the DXY calculation formula.Â
Saturday, June 1:
- 01:15 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 03:15 Astana time - Speech by US Federal Reserve member Bostic (with dovish rhetoric and voting rights).
