May 25, 2024 Grandpa checks in
The market fell into low volatility again during the weekend, and the positive effects of ETFs have come to an end. Whether it can bring real capital increase in the future remains to be verified. Based on past experience, Ethereum's attractiveness to capital is discounted. Previously, Hong Kong opened ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum at the same time, hoping to differentiate its competition through Ethereum, but the final result was not ideal. In addition, when the Ethereum futures ETF was opened, the market did not buy it. From the current situation, my previous clear selling high-priced Call covered call strategy won a big victory, and the volatility dropped sharply after the ETF was passed.
Of course, the approval of this ETF is only a 19B-4 document. The secondary market trading of ETF will be officially opened only after the S-1 document is approved. The capital inflow of institutions and secondary market investors will not be known until the official trading. In addition, like BTC's ETF, it will also face selling pressure from Grayscale. The market situation driven by BTC's ETF is still good. If the inflow of funds for Ethereum's ETF is less than expected, the price may be under pressure for a period of time. Another situation is that after the ETF was approved, the amount of ether in the exchange showed a large net inflow. This news must have been used by someone.
In terms of the market, we will take a break and see the situation in the next two days. If Ethereum does not continue to fall, it means that there has been a net inflow of funds during this period, and there will be no problem holding the spot. Since the Ethereum ETF has not yet officially opened for trading, there is enough room for imagination in the market. As for whether Ethereum can break through new highs or even lead the market, the difficulty coefficient is still very high at present. Since the beginning of this year, the trend of Ethereum has been weaker than that of Bitcoin. The core is that there are fewer new projects in the ecosystem. Therefore, I personally think that the market situation in the future will still be based on the trend of Bitcoin.
Under the premise that Bitcoin has not reached a new high, my own mainstream and copycat currencies are doing some bands and grids. The mainstream currencies in the Ethereum ecosystem have risen in the past few days, such as UNI and ENS, which have risen in the past few days, indicating that some old funds have been awakened, so there should be something to play with in the future. If Bitcoin does not reach a new high, you can sell it at the pressure point. In addition, the direction of the market actually has certain risks. After all, there is a big positive news in the circle, and we must wait for the macro interest rate cut next. The interest rate cut is expected to take several months, which will give the wide range of shocks some opportunities to go down.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
