Market Analysis – ETH surged 20% on the news, is it still a good time to enter the market?
In the early morning of yesterday 5/21, a post from a Bloomberg analyst stated that the SEC's attitude toward Ethereum spot ETFs may change drastically. As soon as the news came out, ETH surged by more than 20% in one day, and the entire market was affected. Rising, BTC also rose by about 8% in one day. This news injected a boost into the decline of the entire cryptocurrency market for about two months. So far, ETH has once exceeded $3,800, and BTC has once exceeded $72,000. , there is currently a slight correction.
Originally, the market was mostly pessimistic about whether the SEC would approve the Ethereum spot ETF on 5/23. However, one of the reasons for such a big reversal may be attributed to political factors. The end of this year is the presidential election in the United States. In the increasingly fierce election, candidates from both parties will try their best to release bullish news to gain the support of voters. Recently, Republican presidential candidate Trump has been labeled as cryptocurrency-friendly, and he is also open to Cryptocurrency donations, in comparison, Democratic candidate Biden has not done much in the field of cryptocurrency. Therefore, it may be rumored that the ruling party wants to take this opportunity to pressure the SEC to approve bullish news related to cryptocurrency, and strive for more The support of cryptocurrency voters is why some macro analysts believe that the chances of passing the Ethereum spot ETF have greatly increased this time.
Looking back at this surge in ETH, in fact, there were some signs of ETH before the rise. The main force in Bitfinex ETH/BTC spot long leverage added positions again on 5/19. This is the first time since 3/11. Three large positions were added, and the increase was Bitfinex's largest in the past two years, which is equivalent to showing that the main force is optimistic about ETH. In addition, the technical aspect also shows that before breaking through the downward trend line, the 12-hour MACD indicator has diverged from the bottom multiple times, forming a bullish signal of bottom divergence. These two signals were also reminded in the GT Radar community before the rise. Yes, congratulations to those who noticed.
Judging from the current trend, it is not recommended for those who have not yet jumped on the bus to chase the rise of ETH now. First of all, ETH has less than 7% room left from the high of 4,100 US dollars before March this year. Even if it rises, the profit margin is relatively limited. Secondly, The above-mentioned Bitfinex main players have significantly reduced their positions and made profits. In addition, the market has already reflected the bullish news that the probability of passing the Ethereum spot ETF has greatly increased. Chasing ETH now is actually equivalent to betting on whether the 5/23 resolution will be passed. .
According to Bloomberg data, the Ethereum spot ETF applied by VanEck will usher in the final decision on May 23, U.S. time, while the Ethereum spot ETF applied by Ark and 21 Shares will usher in the final decision on May 24. Decision moment. If it passes, it will definitely rise, but if it does not pass, the short-term downward correction is certain, so it is recommended that contract players not to chase the rise now, but spot players can refer to entering a batch of spot goods now, and wait for the decision result to be released, whether it is passed or The postponement is confirmed to be a batch of entries, because judging from the current general trend, the market has taken the right direction, and the overall AltCoin market is likely to rise. GT Radar will also make position adjustments this week, turning the conservative mode into a positive mode.
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The yields of "GTRadar - BULL" and "GTRadar - Balanced" in the past 7 days are +11.11% and +5.19% for the former, and +7.53% and +1.41% for the latter in the past 30 days.
The profits of both investment portfolios have increased significantly in the past week, and the BULL yield has increased significantly. The main reason is that in the early morning of May 21, stimulated by the news of ETH spot ETF, the overall market experienced a surge.
Currently, "GTRadar – BULL" holds a net long position of approximately 150% (full position is 300%).
Currently, "GTRadar - Balance" holds a large number of positions, among which ETH has the most profit, with the overall position holding about 80% (full position is 300%).
The two investment portfolios are expected to be adjusted before this Friday, 5/24, and the proportion of order amounts will be changed from conservative to active. Users who want to increase the order amount must do so before this Friday.
The long-term returns of a follower who frequently changes his investment portfolio are not as good as those of a follower who continues to follow a single group. Don’t end the follow-up easily just because of a short-term retracement. Judging from the curve, the retracement is a good time to start following. In and out, on the contrary, the yield rate will be significantly reduced.
Potential market opportunities
Ethereum Ecosystem and SOL Ecosystem
As the profits of Ethereum spot ETFs are released, related ecosystems may also benefit. For example, Ethereum Layer 2 concept ARB, OP... all rose by more than 20% yesterday, and the DEFI sector also benefited from the rise, among which LDO rose even more within two days. Close to 40%, it can be said that the Ethereum ecosystem, which has been cooling for a long time, may restart the hype topic. In addition, if the Ethereum spot ETF can pass the test, it is conceivable that in addition to ETH itself, there will be a considerable increase. However, the market's attention may turn to the next target that may pass the spot ETF, just like when the Bitcoin spot ETF passed the test, the market Immediately turn your attention to ETH. It is conceivable that the loudest voice currently is SOL, so you can pay close attention to the trends of the related ecosystem.
NVDIA quarterly financial report is released tonight, focusing on AI concept coins
NVIDIA's quarterly financial report will be released tonight. The market is generally very optimistic about the future growth. In particular, the release of the latest version of ChatGPT4o immediately aroused the market's imagination for AI. Wall Street is also very optimistic about the future market demand for AI. Although most AI projects related to the cryptocurrency market currently do not have eye-catching products, they are likely to experience significant fluctuations following the release of NVIDIA's financial report.
hot news
VanEck’s pending Ethereum spot ETF is listed on DTCC under the ticker ETHV
An Ethereum spot ETF filed by global investment management firm VanEck has been added to the list of ETFs on the Depository Depository and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) website. However, this inclusion is only part of the preparation process and does not mean that the company’s Ethereum ETF has been fully launched, as the fund is still awaiting regulatory approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Ethereum ETF approval expectations push futures open interest to record $14 billion
ETH prices rose more than 16% in 24 hours as market expectations for approval of a U.S. ether spot ETF application turned positive, with open interest in ether futures reaching a record $14.6 billion. Prominent analysts increased the chances of the SEC approving an Ethereum spot ETF from 25% to 75%. The SEC is scheduled to rule on VanEck’s Ethereum spot ETF on May 23, and the market is paying close attention to it.
Partner of Dragonfly Capital: "VC coins" are like rats crossing the street. Who should be blamed for the continued decline of new tokens?
New tokens began to fall as soon as they were listed, especially since April. This phenomenon has become more obvious. What is the reason? The article analyzes the three mainstream reasons one by one. Venture capitalists/KOL sell to retail investors, retail investors These tokens are being abandoned in favor of meme coins and the supply is too small to enable meaningful price discovery.
How are crypto narratives being transformed? The popularity of AI continues, but BRC20 is fading out of sight
How to measure the current narrative hot spots in the encryption market? Kaito provides a method to calculate the user's attention to the narrative (mind share). Simply put, this metric measures the dominance (percentage) of narratives in social communications relative to the overall market. The denominator is made up of encrypted Twitter circle users from proprietary search engine and social graph data, and the numerator is the number of social platform mentions for each narrative. This provides the most quantitative and comprehensive narrative view of any market cycle.
Research on the influence of crypto KOL tweets: The short-term effect of calling orders is obvious, and an average order of $1,000 will result in a loss of $79 after one month.
For Likes, paying attention to the orders of various KOL bloggers is an important source of obtaining wealth passwords. So, are KOLs always victorious when calling orders, or are they just random coincidences? Research shows that when certain cryptocurrencies are mentioned on Twitter by key opinion leaders (KOLs), those tokens tend to experience negative returns over an extended period of time. This phenomenon may be due to investor overreaction and market sentiment fluctuations. The study analyzed the correlation between multiple KOL tweets and token price movements and concluded that investors should treat such information with caution to avoid potential losses.
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data comes from GT Radar official website announcements. Each user may have slight differences due to different entry and exit prices, and past performance does not represent future performance!
This article GT Radar Radar Weekly Report 5/22: ETH surged 20% on the news of ETF. Is it still suitable to enter now? First appeared in Zombit.
