I reiterate my view that the ETF news is a waterfall. My prediction is based on the market maker's mentality, retail investor psychology and data. This is also my last post on ETF news. After posting, I will quietly wait for the face-slapping liquidation or the battle to become a god.

It is not clear at what time the ETF news will be released. Judging from other people's releases, it should be between 4 and 6 am tonight.

Okay, let's continue to talk about the trend I predict when the news is released.

If it does not pass, it will directly waterfall.

If it passes, there is a small probability that it will directly waterfall, and there will be one or two large-scale pull-ups at the 5-minute level, and then waterfall.

I also predict a point for this pull-up. It may directly break 4000 and then waterfall. Even break 4100 and then waterfall. Because 4092 is the previous high, from the market maker's psychology, it is very likely to break the previous high. Therefore, it is safe in the short term if the short position liquidation line can be controlled above 4200.

How to draw the above conclusion. First, the market maker violently pulled it up from 3100, and most of the bullets have been fired. It is time to ship and make a profit. Second, retail investors are motivated by being pulled up, which means that their ability to take over the market has been improved, making it easier for dealers to ship. Third, the current proportion of long positions has reached an astonishing 70%, while the proportion of short positions is only more than 20. There are dealers in 100% of the long positions. When the good news comes, the dealers will make a profit and exit. Once the long positions are closed, it will be a waterfall, because long positions are buying, closing positions is selling, and selling is falling. If a large number of long positions are closed, it will be a waterfall. Fourth, according to the current Binance Ethereum liquidation chart. If it can be directly pulled to 4000 in a short time, the short orders will be liquidated for nearly 200 million, and then the waterfall will fall to 3500, and the long orders will be liquidated for nearly 600 million. Using a piece of news, the long and short positions are really killed, justified. There is no such good opportunity at ordinary times. The dealer will not explode and plummet for no reason. Because the explosion and plummet for no reason cannot mobilize the enthusiasm of retail investors, and their interests cannot be maximized.

OK, the above are all the reasons why I see the waterfall. Tonight I will go short more and more until my position is liquidated. I am willing to pay for my own opinion.