The Fed released the minutes of its meeting three weeks ago yesterday. The general content was that officials were not in a hurry to cut interest rates. They felt uncertain about the continued price pressure, and recent data did not give them greater confidence in reducing the annual inflation rate to 2% in a short period of time. Some officials even said that if inflation pressure rises further in the future, they are willing to adopt tighter policies to deal with price pressure, resulting in some small pullbacks in U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies.
These records were just talk three weeks ago before the price index was released. The April price index has pointed out that the downward trend of inflation remains unchanged, but the speed is not as fast as the market expected. Many Fed officials and Chairman Powell have also said that raising interest rates is not under consideration. At most, the current high interest rate will be maintained for a longer period of time. Therefore, I do not think that the green Fed meeting records will lead to more declines. At present, the market is only experiencing a correction after rising.
Currently, risky assets are rising again due to Nvidia's financial report. It is expected that market sentiment will return to greed. It is observed that US technology stocks can continue to rise in this wave of madness. AI concept stocks will receive another wave of popularity. As the market risk tolerance increases, highly correlated commodities such as Bitcoin will be expected to receive capital inflows.
Ethereum ETF is the hottest topic these days. Today, the review results of VanEck's Ethereum spot ETF will be announced. The entire market is waiting for news about ETH's spot ETF. Now it is the evening of the 22nd (around 23:00) US time. It seems that the SEC will not release the news until this afternoon or tonight.
How will this result affect the market?
1: Passed. If passed, it will undoubtedly be a positive in the long run, which can be seen from the capital inflow after the Bitcoin ETF is passed. However, it is also because of the performance of the Bitcoin ETF that ETH has shown part of the positive expectations (this is also one of the reasons why Ethereum has risen in the past two days). Therefore, it is very likely to cause short-term selling pressure after passing (first rise and then fall after passing), and the positive landing is negative.
2: Failure. If it fails, the SEC will review the Ethereum spot ETF applications of ARK, 21SHARES, Hashdex, Grayscale and other companies in the next few days. If ETH is classified as a security, then the price of ETH will go back to where it came from, because the following companies will not pass. However, if it is for other reasons, the expectations for the future still exist, and the price of the currency is likely to continue to maintain high speculation expectations.
To sum up, ETH's short-term upward space is not large after the 20% surge in a single day. It is not realistic to expect a continued sharp rise. The sell orders after the single-day surge hit a new high in recent months. Therefore, it needs to confirm repeatedly above 3,500 for a period of time before it has a chance to move to a higher position. Don't be tempted by FOMO and chase highs.
Bitcoin has pulled back to the 70,000 mark, which is the result of ETH's 20% surge in a single day. In addition, Bitcoin ETF has again turned to a large inflow this week, making the market strong again. From the overall trend, the current volume is not enough to directly start a violent bull market and enter a new main rising wave. Short-term fluctuations are still the main theme. ETFs are gradually exchanging hands with traditional currency holders. This process will take some time. The violent bull market may not come until after the third quarter. In the long run, the current box is still a bull market relay.
When will the altcoin season come? This may be the most concerned topic for many small and medium retail investors. According to the previous bull market, the altcoin season will come in the late stage of the main rising wave of Bitcoin. If we judge that the current Bitcoin does not have the momentum to directly start the main rising wave, then the altcoin season is obviously still not ready. Therefore, for building a position in the altcoin, it is recommended to gradually participate at a low level. After all, the overall price of altcoins is not too high now, and it is completely okay to build some bottom positions (this is also what I have always emphasized to everyone. After all, you don’t buy low-priced coins, and you have to wait for them to rise before asking if you can chase them). I have sorted out the specific sectors and tokens in the past few days. You can look through the previous articles and don’t be too anxious or nervous. No matter what the situation is, just know what you are doing.
Later, I will bring you analysis of leading projects in other tracks. If you are interested, you can click to follow. I will also organize some cutting-edge consulting and project reviews from time to time. Welcome all like-minded people in the cryptocurrency circle to explore together. If you have any questions, you can comment and ask questions
