The death of Iranian President Raisi is already a fact, but it is also already clear that it will not be a reason for a dump on the crypto market. And the reason for sudden price movements of#BTCand altcoins in general.

There will definitely not be any dump-style movements on this topic that will aggravate the Iran-Israeli conflict. But they will be on something else, because the BTC Price Volatility Index is in the range after May 13th. We called this day the reversal date, the end of the Index decline. And they warned that the longer the Index spends in the range, the stronger its impulse growth may be after exiting the sideways movement. This already happened in the first half of April.

In themselves, such rankings on the Index are historically not a frequent or long-lasting occurrence.

Currently, candlestick analysis according to DeMark allows for a maximum of 5 more days of range or even decline in the Index. The increase in volatility is delayed. But breakdown is possible even earlier.

In general, the situation may repeat the movement of the Index not even in the first half of April, but in February-March 2023. Then, after the reversal signal on February 5, the Index continued to decline until February 8 and then showed growth with a slight correction until March 5. How this affected the price of BTC is clearly visible on its chart. The impulse growth with interruptions during this period amounted to about +73% (!).

We remind you that a forecast of increased volatility does not necessarily mean a forecast of rising prices. This could be either a price reduction or a wide “cut” in two directions. Therefore, the correct conclusion is that we are on the verge of very large movements in BTC and this should be taken into account when opening transactions. And in addition, to predict the direction of movement, you need to analyze the BTC Dominance and USDT+USDC Dominance Indices, the BTC Price Index.

Returning to the topic of Iran, it will not bring volatility to the markets for a number of reasons:

- Iranian media blame mountainous terrain and heavy fog for the disaster. Officially, it was because of the weather conditions that the president of the country died, as well as the head of the Foreign Ministry and several other government officials. Heavy fog is still visible in the helicopter search footage.

- Probable successor Vice President Mohammad Mokhber is asking people to calm down, saying government work will not be disrupted.

- Israel has stated that it was not involved in the helicopter crash, but no one is blaming them.

As a result, global markets generally react calmly. The Iranian stock exchange is still closed until further notice, but this is all a local story.

#Bloomberg recalls that Iran ranks third in terms of production among OPEC members and continues to increase production. The main buyer is China. Amid news of the disaster, the price of Brent oil has risen slightly, but is already correcting.

#Reuters adds that Mokhber, who is considered close to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, will become president. He was a full supporter of the line of the ultra-conservative President Raisi. That is, the state’s internal and external policies will continue. Although this depends not so much on the president as on Khamenei. He is the real head of state.