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How can I know in advance how likely I am to make a profit and how likely I will lose? How can I calculate our betting ratio? I don't know if you will have such doubts. Such doubts are correct, because the Kelly formula does not apply to all situations. Its application has prerequisites. The formula is only applicable to independent and repeated gambling or trading investment opportunities. If your transactions are based on your own subjective judgment and each response is different, then you will not be able to apply the opening rate formula well. There are three important prerequisites for applying the Kelly formula in transactions. The first is the same type of opportunity. The application of the formula is applicable to independent and repeated situations, so if your transactions are completely subjective and each transaction is judged separately, then the formula cannot bring you much value. The first premise of applying the Kelly formula is that you must be able to divide your opportunities by type. For example, in my system, trading opportunities are divided into finishing structures and continuous structures. There are also subdivided structural types. In the process of trading, in fact, similar situations such as finishing structures are encountered, and then trading is carried out according to similar rules. Of course, there are other types of opportunities, but taken separately, all opportunities can be summarized into a certain type. Every transaction is to select similar opportunities in the market according to the same characteristics for trading. Then this trading method is aimed at a certain type of independent and repeated transactions. From subjective random transactions to independent and repeated transactions of the same type of opportunities, the Kelly formula can be applied to find the best betting ratio for each type of opportunity. Because the second premise of the Kelly formula is to have large sample statistical data, and these data do not mean that my next order will set a 3x profit and loss ratio, that is, 3x odds. All of these data are based on past order data statistics. According to the same type of opportunities, the accuracy rate, loss rate, and odds of each type of opportunity are comprehensively counted, and the betting ratio calculated by the Kelly formula is then valuable when encountering such opportunities.