The interest rate cut will come sooner or later, so let's give you an expectation in advance.

Last night, the macro data suddenly took a turn. The Federal Reserve once again emphasized the control of inflation and hinted in a hawkish manner that it did not rule out the possibility of another rate hike, which directly reversed the trend of starting a short-term annual rate cut. The big bears fell sharply in response, and the structural support level of 60,000 points is currently in jeopardy.

Many of you may have questions. From January to now, ETFs have been showing a relatively stable inflow over a long period of time. Except for Grayscale GBTC, there has been no large-scale capital outflow. Then, during the correction period after Bitcoin hit a high of 74,000 US dollars, the total amount of ETFs also maintained a relatively stable inflow. So how did the market fall?

After a lot of on-chain data queries, Sanshu also found clues. First of all, we need to confirm that the callback started from the highest point of this round of Bitcoin. Bitcoin really did not fall much. The average price of ETFs was around 58,000 points, which is consistent with the strong support range of Bitcoin. On the contrary, the cottage basically fell to the bottom of this round of big market, and continued to show a possible bearish trend.

If there is no real data escape, then the reason for the market decline is obvious. At least in the DEX field, data dumping has been mastered by major project parties and platforms. In the same way, since it is a data dump, there is only one purpose for doing it, which is to stimulate everyone to give up their chips through uninterrupted bad news until the chip rotation is completed before a new round of market starts. This logic is very similar to the three-month oscillation cycle after the first two halvings!

Will the market continue to fall in the short term? Where will the lowest point be? The technical aspect cannot give an answer! With limited information, what I can see is that if the support of 60,000 points cannot hold, the head and shoulders bottom pattern cannot be established, and it will become very likely that the market will continue to collapse by 5,000 points. Of course, from the current support strength of the market, the 60,000 point position is still playing its role.

SSV suddenly plummeted last night, and this wave is really unpredictable. Internally, SSV is a staking protocol for Ethereum. After the distribution of chips of the two leading projects, the staking volume has dropped sharply, resulting in a decrease in protocol income. Externally, its founder went to serve in the army at the end of last year, and the Israeli military operation in Rafah will last for two months. At the same time, its ambassador to the United Nations tore up the UN Charter yesterday. As a result, the market's bearish sentiment on the project suddenly broke out, and the short-term bottom-fishing inflow after the sharp drop was almost more than the previous month.

As for the ultra-short term, stay neutral. Both long and short positions depend on whether Bitcoin can hold up. But in the long term, I am still optimistic. Ethereum L2 needs to develop, and the pledge agreement with a monopoly position will definitely take off. Compared with those projects with valuations of tens of billions or even hundreds of billions, the cost-effectiveness of SSV, which is only more than 300 million, is not too high. The first time I bought it publicly was at 31 points, and I doubled it and got out of the capital. This time it has directly fallen back to the previous cost. If Bitcoin stops falling, it is still worth buying.

As an aside, the last person to publicly tear up the UN Charter at the United Nations was Gaddafi. We all know the result. The five great philanthropists did not get to that position by doing charity, so there are still certain unknown impacts here, such as the SSV project party being hit by a stray bullet!

Yesterday, Grayscale GBTC outflowed 103 million US dollars, with a net outflow of 97.1 million US dollars. Except for the inflow of more than 10 million US dollars to BlackRock, the others were basically unchanged. Objectively speaking, the short-term impact of ETFs can still be ignored. As long as there is no panic selling logic in this area, coupled with the ongoing interest rate cut cycle, the market will not return to zero.

If the market does not reach a new low tonight, it is expected to remain in the bottom-testing state tomorrow. It is expected to pick up slightly on Monday and Tuesday. After that, we will focus on the CPI data at 8:30 pm next Wednesday. If it is negative, this wave will basically be lost. At present, it is generally expected that the data will pick up, so let's wait and see.

In short, if you don't have leverage, the long-term narrow range fluctuations will expand to wide range fluctuations, and the direction is to wash the market downward. The purpose is still very clear, which also means that the market change is about to begin. The general decline in the market will lose money, and the garbage time is also the most challenging for people's mentality. Let's exchange time for space. The future is a cycle of interest rate cuts, not interest rate hikes!

BTC: Bitcoin is still at the limit of 60,000 points. We should focus on this position in the next two days. If it falls directly and strongly, the adjustment period of this wave of market will be greatly extended. At present, everyone is waiting for signals from the macro perspective. The strength and method of the dog dealer's wash are really enough to test people. There is nothing to say in the short term. There is only one long and short indicator. Is it a chip scam or a wolf? We will see next week.

ETH: Ethereum is linked to Bitcoin, with a daily support of 2760 points. Most of the recent bottom-fishing on the chain choose Ethereum between Bitcoin and Ethereum, probably considering the short-term cost-effectiveness, for reference only.

Shanzhai: If there are profits before the AI ​​conference next week, sell them. If there are no profits and are stuck, wait for the good news in June, when the market should rise. At present, only consider buying SSV at the bottom. After all, it has reached the bottom position of the first purchase. The short-term risk is too great, so everyone should follow with caution.

Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! ​​​#新币挖矿 #山寨币热点 #BTC走势分析 #ETFvsBTC #5月市场关键事件 $BTC