Macroeconomics and news:
During the period of publication, the US inflation data and the consumer index provided by the University of Michigan were released, and the data were mixed. Coupled with the hawkish speeches of Fed officials, the US stock market Bitcoin fell sharply in the short term, the Nasdaq fell below today's gains, and the S&P basically wiped out today's gains. The market's expectations for optimistic interest rate cuts were shattered again.
In fact, I also emphasized this point yesterday. In the future, we will face the situation where US officials use data and market expectations to regulate the market. We must understand that what the United States wants now is that US bonds and US indices remain strong and the stock market remains stable. The performance of US stocks in the past few days has been too strong. This cooling is also to cool down the US stocks. Otherwise, the US stocks that have set new highs again will actually bring more disadvantages than advantages. The bubble in the stock market has already discouraged many people. Another breakthrough may lead to an increase in bubble risks.
In the future, everyone will still have to slowly get used to the market expectations and market fluctuations caused by data under the control of the United States. At present, the crypto market lacks a strong independent narrative. The market is currently referring to the sentiment of the US stock market, and the US stock market is more sensitive to US data. So, the torture has just begun.
Maybe the official speech in the early morning will be dovish again, and the market will rebound again.
Recently, everyone is discussing the United States to curb inflation and when to cut interest rates. In fact, everyone should understand that curbing inflation is just an excuse. The purpose is to adjust market expectations by regulating inflation, affect the adjustment of monetary interest rates, and thus help the dollar, U.S. bonds attract money, and of course, U.S. stocks. The U.S. will not cut interest rates because of inflation, but because of confidence in its own economy. Only when the United States believes that its own economic and financial risks have become smaller will it start to cut interest rates.
As for inflation, inflation will inevitably affect the risks of the United States' own economy and finance, but this risk is compared with the external and global confidence index of the U.S. dollar system that the United States faces. The United States still has to support and consolidate the strength of the U.S. dollar capital, of course, the premise is that its own risks can be controlled.
As for inflation, I have said a theory before that any economy relies on its own national debt and the issuance of legal currency to create bubbles, so that the economy can expand and develop. The disadvantages of inflation can be completely passed on to society for digestion, and U.S. inflation, or U.S. dollar inflation, will be paid by the global U.S. allies and U.S. dollar capital countries. So from this perspective, is the United States really afraid of inflation?What we are afraid of is the risks brought by inflation. Once these risks are reduced, inflation can be slowly absorbed by the world.
Fellow Taoists, the future is uncertain and the road ahead is long. Let us slowly forge ahead.
