The BTC rate continues to decline, changing the structure of the candles on the daily timeframe to a downward one on May 6-7. At the moment - $60,653.
From the negative for the bulls:
- On May 5, the RSI on the daily TF received a rebound from the level of 50,
- the price is again under a downward trend since April 8,
- the price is again under the upward trend since December 5, 2023 (dotted line),
- the prospect of PG&P remains on the chart, but the right shoulder is already lower than the left, this reduces the chances.
HOWEVER, locally we expect a rebound from the volume level of $61,231. The fight for it has been going on since the beginning of the day; the trend reversal indicator gave a “Cheap” signal. Most likely, the rebound will be with an unsuccessful attempt to break through $62,987.
The situation regarding the reversal is the same. As long as the price is not higher than the EMA of the 50 day TF (currently $63,602), it is impossible to talk about going to a new ATH. During the growth on May 1-6, it was not possible to break through this EMA; the asset is “refueling” with liquidity.
On the daily TF for May 6-9 - a downward candle structure and the likelihood of a further decline in BTC by impulse or in a range for another 4-6 days, excluding the current one. Taking into account the situation on the Volatility Index, it is rather a range.
From about May 13-15, you can expect an upward reversal in both the BTC price and its Volatility Index. IF the structure of candles on the daily TF remains the same.
The question is how much the BTC price will adjust by the time of the reversal. The volatility index suggests not much. Price may spend these days in range.
BTC currently has two important supports, the test of which is not the “end of the world” for the bulls (a chance for growth):
- upward trend since March 5 (marked with a dashed line), currently $59,872,
- volume level $59,335.
If today the candle closes below the volume level of $61,231, there is a high probability that these supports will be tested.
The turning point for the bulls in case of further decline is $56,915. This is a candlestick on May 2, which became a reversal (indicated the beginning of growth in posts on May 1. If the price consolidates below, there is a big risk of going to the area of $51,000-52,000.
