Market Analysis – BTC rebounds after breaking low, with short-term downside risks
BTC closed in April with its largest monthly decline since 2023. Looking back, the main reasons for the decline were regional conflicts between Israel and Iran and market concerns. Not only did the Federal Reserve not cut interest rates, but the market also expressed concerns about raising interest rates. However, the subsequent conflict between Israel and Iran did not expand. In addition, the Federal Reserve also announced last Friday that it would begin to slow down the balance sheet reduction in June, and the interest rate decision remained unchanged from the previous period. In the short term, With no intention to raise interest rates, the market temporarily gave up its doubts. The non-farm employment index released later was lower than expected, indicating that the actual employment situation in the United States is not optimistic.
However, as soon as the news came out, the market began to anticipate the possibility of a subsequent interest rate cut. Usually, an interest rate cut would be beneficial to the rise of risky assets, so BTC also rebounded on the same day, rebounding from about US$56,500 to a maximum of US$65,500, with the maximum increase reaching 15%. , and AltCoin also rebounded simultaneously. The most eye-catching ones were the AI and Meme sectors, with the highest increases of more than 20%.
From a technical perspective, last week 5/5 BTC broke through the downward trend line and once stood above EMA200. The subsequent trend began to weaken. This Monday, it fell back below EMA200 again, showing a weak market decline. Although the current trend is in the red Above the downtrend line, but considering that the current general direction has turned bearish, and there are still 5/5 upsides that have not broken through the pressure range of $66,000, forming a high-high-low short trend, the probability of going short is currently high, and the follow-up is very likely It may bottom out again, with short-term support at $66,000.
Binance Copying Analysis
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The yields of "GTRadar - BULL" and "GTRadar - Balance" in the past 7 days are 0.86% and -0.35% for the former, and -13.68% and -1.09% for the latter in the past 30 days.
The cryptocurrency market finally experienced a major rebound in the past week after a sharp decline that lasted for many days. However, the general trend is still weak and volatile, and the order placement in the strategic part is still relatively conservative, and there are not many entry strategies.
Currently, "GTRadar – BULL" holds a net long position of about 30%, among which BNB has a relatively high position.
Currently, "GTRadar - Balanced" holds a net long position of about 10%. It holds a lot of currencies, but the positions are not large.
The long-term returns of a follower who frequently changes his investment portfolio are not as good as those of a follower who continues to follow a single group. Don’t end the follow-up easily just because of a short-term retracement. Judging from the curve, the retracement is a good time to start following. In and out, on the contrary, the yield rate will be significantly reduced.
Potential market opportunities
Memes and AI rebound strongly
Cryptocurrency markets have recovered all the way from $56,500 levels to $65,500 this week, and the overall market has followed suit.
During this period, the largest increases can be divided into two major sectors: meme coins and AI concept coins. Among them, the meme coins that are mainly sought after by the market are PEPE and WIF, both of which have increased by more than 20% in the past seven days. This seems to indicate that when the market stops falling and rebounds, meme coins are still the first choice for short-term momentum trading positions of hot money. This part can be used as A reference for investors in the future when conducting short-term bargain hunting transactions.
In addition, AI concept currencies such as RNDR, WLD, AGIX, FET, TAO, etc. also performed very well this week. It just so happens that a lot of new news has come out in the AI track recently, including Microsoft's increased deployment of AI technology, OpenAI's development of search engines, and so on. Additionally, Huida shares have recovered over the past week from a low of $812 to over $900. It seems that as long as new news or breakthroughs continue to come out in the AI sector, AI concept currencies in the currency circle will also benefit from the hype.
In addition to the above two major sectors, currencies such as AR, JUP, and ENA are also worthy of attention.
Restart grid trading strategy
The current market is basically in a consolidation trend, and the probability of a unilateral market trend in a short period of time is not high. Multiple operations will lead to more opportunities to lose money. In addition, the annualized returns of the exchange's live interest rate and funding rate arbitrage have also fallen sharply. At this time, it may be a good choice to allocate funds to a grid trading strategy.
So-called grid trading is an automated spread trading tool that allows users to set high and low price ranges and earn the spread during periods of market volatility. At present, many exchanges have built-in such functions. Investors can try to allocate some funds to ensure that they will not suffer losses due to long and short double kills during the shock period, but can instead benefit from it.
The following pictures are the recommended parameters for the BTC grid. You can go to Binance’s built-in robot page to customize the parameters.
The rise of SocialFi apps
This week, due to the currency issuance of Friend tech, the discussion of SocialFi continues to increase. This may be the first step in the vigorous development of the SocialFi concept track. It can be seen that many people (such as Brother Maji) are acquiring FRIEND tokens and providing liquidity to form LPs. The main reason is that Friend tech allows LPs that provide liquidity to achieve "three mining" profits, and the so-called "three mining" ”’s revenue sources come from:
Liquidity pool handling fee (1.5%)
One-year liquidity mining additional rewards (12 million FRIEND in total)
Club Key 1,5% transaction fee.
Investors who are willing to bet on Friend tech can consider participating. It is said that the annualized return from three digs is approximately 600%.
In addition to Friend tech, Fantasy.top, which turns KOL into cards, the long-popular farcaster, and Pump.fun, which revolves around meme coins, are all top applications worthy of user participation.
Event Notice – MaiCoin Lecture Hall [Is the bull market coming? Identification of large cycles in the cryptocurrency market & analysis of future potential tracks]
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Lecture Topic
How to judge the current currency market cycle, whether it is the beginning or the tail of the bull?
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How do sectors flow between bull markets? What is the difference between this bull market and the previous one?
Analysis of future potential tracks
Time: 2024/05/18 (Six) 14:00 ~ 15:45
Venue: MaiCoin HQ 2nd Floor Exhibition Hall – No. 104, Section 1, Bade Road, Taipei City
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hot news
MicroStrategy Rumoredly Plans to Launch Bitcoin Decentralized Identity Solution
A Bitcoin community KOL named "Dylan LeClair" posted on Wednesday (1st) that MicroStrategy, a US listed company that holds a large amount of Bitcoin, plans to launch a Bitcoin blockchain network-based Decentralized identity protocol. The goal of the protocol is to use unspent transaction outputs (UTXO) on the Bitcoin blockchain to store and recall users’ personal information.
BlackRock Bitcoin ETF records first net outflow
According to information shared by Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, IBIT, which has had almost no outflows since its listing, recorded a net outflow of approximately US$37 million on May 1. This day was also the day with the highest total outflow of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs to date, with a total outflow of $560 million.
BlackRock’s head of digital assets: Institutions such as sovereign funds and pension funds may start trading Bitcoin ETFs
Although the popularity of Bitcoin spot ETFs has cooled down, according to CoinDesk, Robert Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock, said that the current hiatus may be followed by a new wave of activity from different types of investors. Mitchnick said in an interview that the next few months may see financial institutions like sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and endowments begin trading Bitcoin spot ETFs.
Block, a company owned by Twitter founder Jack Dorsey, will start using part of its gross profits to regularly acquire Bitcoin
In financial reports disclosed this month, Block said it had begun using 10% of its monthly Bitcoin-related gross profits to purchase additional Bitcoin in April and planned to increase its holdings each month for the remainder of 2024. Block’s Bitcoin-related gross profit was $80 million, according to its first-quarter earnings report. If this level of profitability is sustained into the second half of the year, the company would add an additional $24 million worth of Bitcoin to its balance sheet under the plan.
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes: Will use the rest of May to build altcoin positions
Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, shared in his latest article that he chose to buy Solana and dog meme coins for his personal short-term momentum trading position, while for long-term altcoin positions, he would consider buying more PENDLE and other valuations. Altcoins with lower values. Arthur Hayes said: "I will use the rest of May to increase my exposure to these investments. Next, my plan is to set these investments and not adjust them frequently, waiting for the market to gradually realize the recent U.S. monetary policy. Declared Inflation Potential”.
Grayscale GBTC ends 78 consecutive days of capital outflows
According to preliminary statistics from Farside Investors, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $378.3 million on Friday (3rd), ending a seven-day streak of net outflows. Notably, Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw its first net inflows since switching to a spot ETF in January, totaling $63 million, ending a 78-day streak of outflows.
VISA: More than 90% of global stablecoin trading volume does not come from real users
According to Bloomberg, a new indicator jointly developed by payment giant Visa and blockchain data analysis company Allium Labs shows that more than 90% of stablecoin transaction volume does not come from real users, indicating that this type of cryptocurrency may still be far away from becoming a common payment method. long way to go.
US CFTC Chairman: There may be another wave of cryptocurrency enforcement actions in the next two years
According to "The Block" report, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Rostin Behnam said on Monday (6th) that when the interest of retail investors and the value of the cryptocurrency market rise, enforcement actions will also increase. He expects the next "enforcement action cycle" in the next six months to two years.
South Korea’s parliamentary majority asks regulators to reconsider Bitcoin spot ETF
Korean media "HankYung" quoted relevant figures from the Democratic Party as saying that once South Korea's 22nd Congress takes office in June, the Democratic Party will ask the FSC to re-examine Bitcoin spot ETFs in order to open such financial products in the country. In addition to this, Democrats are also considering options to amend existing financial regulations in case the Financial Services Commission is unwilling to approve a Bitcoin fund.
FTX submits reorganization plan, 98% of creditors will receive 118% of their claims within 60 days after taking effect`
Cryptocurrency exchange FTX announced on Tuesday (7th) that it had submitted a revised restructuring plan and disclosure report to the court. According to the plan, 98% of creditors will receive at least 118% of their recognized claims in cash within 60 days after the plan takes effect. Creditors will receive full repayment of principal and billions of dollars in compensation for the time value of their investments.
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data comes from GT Radar official website announcements. Each user may have slight differences due to different entry and exit prices, and past performance does not represent future performance!
This article GT Radar Radar Weekly Report 5/8: BTC rebounded after breaking low, there are short-term downside risks. First appeared in Zombit.
