How far are we from a big bull market? Where are the opportunities for copycats?
Macro: Yesterday, Marija Veitmane, head of equity research at State Street Global Markets on Wall Street, warned that although the current US economic data seems strong, a large amount of data has shown that high interest rates have put tremendous pressure on the US economy. If the Fed does not cut interest rates as soon as possible, the US economy is about to collapse.
In fact, the US government knows that high interest rates have already caused great damage to the economy, but the financial game has not yet ended. Now is the last moment of this battle, and the time has come for the bayonets to see blood.
The old US ally Japan can no longer bear it, and I estimate that the European brothers should also be unable to hold it. I expect this game to be decided as early as the third quarter, and the future orientation of interest rate policy is already a certain event.
On-chain: The realized market value of wallet addresses held for 2-3 years has dropped significantly during this round of coin price increases, and the departure behavior of long-term holders is more obvious. Grayscale is in this address category.
Narrative:
AI: AI narrative is also the narrative that everyone has talked about the most in the past two days. The main reason is that the AI narrative has several clear catalysts:
NVIDIA Earnings on May 22;
Apple WWDC 2024 on June 10 also released some additional AI-related content;
ChatGPT 5 may be released this summer, and the GPT version of the search engine is also coming;
Google I/O Conference on May 14
There are many AI projects in the cryptocurrency circle, and choosing coins is a science. Generally, I prefer some coins that have been recognized by the market + CEXs List. For example, FET and TAO
Although TAO has a large market value, the pledge rate is still quite high, and the circulation is small
And FET is preparing for a merger with OCEAN & AGIX. On May 3, Fetch.ai has minted 1,477,549,566 additional tokens in preparation for the next conversion
MEME: As for MEME, I won’t say much about the on-chain, looking for gold in the shit
I will probably only do WIF and PEPE (I don’t deny that memecoins such as BOME BONK FLOKI are also good hype targets). PEPE is my long-term position, and I like to do swing trading for WIF
Every time I wait for BTC to pull back and the market sentiment is low, I buy/add positions, and sell when the sentiment surges back. This type of operation is only applicable to bull markets. I think WIF and PEPE both have the opportunity to become SHIB-level memes in this cycle
SOL, JUP is not just doing DEX, it is trying to become the front end of the entire Solana ecosystem, and the team is quite large; JTO's value lies in LSD and MEV, Solana's ecosystem is hot, which is good for Jito
ETH is still optimistic
I think the May ETF is unlikely to pass, but there is a chance in August. I still hold PENDLE and did not sell any of them during the last FUD (continue to watch 10)
BlackRock: Ondo and Superstate became the companies with the greatest impact in the RWA field in the first quarter. 🐳qun scab👀玮:417072555 The RWA market achieved rapid growth in the first quarter, driven by the huge interest of institutions and the launch of innovative products, including BlackRock's US dollar institutional digital liquidity fund, Superstate's short-term US government securities fund and Ondo's USDY Tokenized treasury bonds, including , grew by 41% to nearly $1.3 billion.
ONDO is undoubtedly the leader in the RWA track in this bull market. It should have the opportunity to go on Binance later. It is also going well and can be held.
