Yesterday, Bitcoin rose slightly, and fell rapidly in the early morning. There was no negative news on the fundamentals, and the daily trend remained healthy. It is expected to continue to rebound during the day, and you can follow up appropriately. The interest rate cut cycle is coming, and you should make necessary defensive preparations when the interest rate cut just begins. Bitcoin and Bitcoin follow BTC to consolidate synchronously, and the trend is better than BTC. It is expected to continue to rebound during the day, and you can consider continuing to follow up. A new round of rising cycle is coming soon.
Intraday market analysis:
BTC 1-hour and 4-hour levels are below healthy levels, and the daily level is below healthy levels. In the consolidation stage, the daily level trend is still there. Pay attention to the support of 58,000. The big cycle continues to be bullish. The lower support is 57,500-58,000 during the day, and the upper resistance is 60,800-61,300. It is expected to continue to rebound during the day, but pay attention to the support of 58,000. If it falls below 58,000 and fails to recover quickly, the market will weaken.
ETH 1-hour and 4-hour levels are below healthy levels, and the daily level is below healthy levels. The trend is slightly better than BTC. BTC/ETH has shown obvious divergence and is expected to continue to rebound. The upper resistance during the day is 2580-2630, and the lower support during the day is 2400-2450.
Returning to the data released last night,
Yesterday's data had little impact overall, and was similar to market expectations. The main reason was the revised GDP value, which was indeed a bit unbelievable. It felt like the US did it on purpose to prepare for a rate cut.
The meaning of this data is very clear, that is, the United States is not in recession and its economic resilience is still very strong. It is estimated that most people in the market did not expect this revision of GDP data. It is especially intended to appease the market before the interest rate cut. You see, my GDP data is still strong and there is no need to worry about a recession. The interest rate cut is also to cater to the market, not to prevent an economic recession.
The biggest problem now is whether the market recognizes this revised data. The market's bargaining points are recession expectations and interest rate cut expectations. The data just released is unfavorable for interest rate cut expectations, but the financial market did not fall, indicating that the interest rate cut expectations have been digested with the Fed's speech.
On the contrary, the hype about recession expectations is still there. This data weakens the recession, so the future recession can be implemented smoothly, and interest rate cuts will come. From this perspective, it is a double benefit. However, this revised GDP data will bring pressure to the initial GDP value of the third quarter. If it is lower than this revised value, will the market talk about recession again?
Therefore, this revised data is a double-edged sword, and its impact on future market conditions may be raised again in the near future. The preliminary GDP value will be announced in October, and there were too many news in September. Market spikes and gates are now the norm.
In addition, I still have some ideas about the possibility of a quick breakthrough in today's market, because the PCE for July, PMI for August, consumer confidence index and one-year inflation expectations will be announced tonight; these data will undoubtedly cause large fluctuations in the current low-liquidity market, so I personally do not recommend short-term trading, and it is very likely to stop losses back and forth; and malicious market conditions are generally prone to occur on Fridays, generally manifested as a pull-up or smash on Friday, and shrinking and sideways trading for the two days of the weekend, torturing those who carry orders.
Therefore, before the multiple data are released tonight, any price behavior may be a lure to buy or sell; so I also do not recommend you to gamble on the market. If you really can't help it, wait for the price to rebound and go short. Generally speaking, before the price stands above 62,000, the chances of winning by shorting are slightly greater.
There is a high probability that September will continue the downward trend of August, then bottom out, bottom out in mid-to-late September and then rebound at the end of September, emerge from the haze in October and rise sharply in October.
Before this bull market takes off, in addition to BTC and mainstream, there are 4 altcoins worth investing in (strongly recommended!!!)
(1) baby
Again, memecion will run through the entire bull and bear market. This track should be the only one that can run through the bull and bear market. There will always be a new king of local dogs born in each round. I think this wave of retracement to around 05 is the top, because the starting point of the previous wave of rise is around 04. This wave of performance is so strong that most of the altcoins have returned to the previous bear market lows. The altcoins that can avoid the previous lows show that they are protected by strong dealers and favored by capital.
(2) fact
I think there are no doubts about the targets in the AI track. In the past, the AI track was full of chaos, and anything related to AI could fly well. But this round is likely to be different. Only those with technological breakthroughs and computing power to take on competitiveness can fly.
FET has become the merger of the three major AI projects. If AI is hyped, who else can it hype? This round of decline from more than 3.5 to 0.65 is very fierce, but it is also more than doubled when it is pulled up. So there is no way, AI can only stay away from one thing, it seems inevitable, and the other is Arkm and Render.
（3）floki
The gaming track should be the one that remains on the rise in an overall downward environment, and many of the targets on this track depend on the cycle of the game itself, and not many of them can last long.
Floki is a meme, and it also does games and automatic trading. In addition, this wave of airdrops on the 29th is a project of BSC.
This shows that the bsc ecosystem of this target is quite supportive. To some extent, it can be a game track, a meme, and a bsc ecosystem. It is definitely killing two birds with one stone. 010 is definitely a strong support position. My own capital is also at this position. Anyway, if it is lower than this position, it is not the bottom and it is underestimated.
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