Macroeconomics and news:
Last week, the employment data released by the United States once again promoted the optimistic expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this year, and the risk market felt the optimism and rose. However, my view is still that the Federal Reserve is manipulating market expectations to regulate the US stock market.
In the recent US stock earnings week, the results of the earnings report were not as good as expected. The weakness of the US stock market, the decline of traders' carefulness, and the market were accompanied by the remarks of the high bubble of the US stock market, all of which were not conducive to the trend of the US stock market. Before the release of the employment data, the Federal Reserve revised the previous value data, and then released a surprising employment data, and the US stock market was boosted again after the earnings week.
However, we also admire the adaptability of the risk market. Before discussing the mid-year interest rate cut, the interest rate was cut three times, and the market was optimistic. After that, the continuous hawkish remarks of the Federal Reserve led to a significant decline in market expectations. At this time, the Federal Reserve only needs to prove to the market that we will cut interest rates this year, and the risk market will become optimistic again. The market's expectations for interest rate cuts are getting lower and lower, and it is easier to be satisfied with optimism. This is not a good thing.
The employment data has confirmed the expectation of interest rate cuts, boosted the stock market, and also let us see that the importance of US stocks is still what the Federal Reserve needs to care about, that is, the liquidity provided by the US stock market in the future interest rate cuts is what the Federal Reserve attaches great importance to. Therefore, in an environment where financial report expectations are not optimistic, market expectations are used to save the decadent trend of US stocks, but how long can this shot-in-the-arm rescue last? At least it should not be a problem to hold on until the next financial report cycle.
However, using market expectations to adjust the US stock market will also bring greater pressure to the US stock financial reports in the next cycle. In the optimistic expectation of interest rate cuts, traders will have higher valuations and expectations for US stock companies. If the actual situation announced in the financial report does not meet market expectations, how will the Federal Reserve save it? Moreover, in this process, more and more high-net-worth investors will feel the risk of US stocks.
At present, the US stock market opened high and went high. This week will be a period of intensive speeches by Federal Reserve officials. Whether the speeches of various officials can boost the optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts and continue to promote US stocks depends on the current popularity of US stocks.
