Some interesting downtrend trading phenomena!
1. The chips that are subjectively considered bad are discarded first
MEME and some currencies that you think have no potential will be the first to stop losses, just like leaving new money and using old money. This is why the wash of MEME tokens is more thorough.
2. Infinitely magnifying the single advantage of a token and ignoring the analysis of the overall attributes of the token
When you hold a token in a downtrend, it may not be because of its fundamentals, how good its narrative is, or how great its market capitalization potential is.
It is more likely that it is simply because it has an advantage at a certain point, for example, it is marketed by DWF, it is invested by a16z, it is still in its early stages...
3. The downward trend ignores the gradually closed information environment
When the market enters a downward range, most projects, institutions, and teams will choose to tighten their information release, resulting in information gaps to varying degrees.
The "gambler's psychology"-"repeated game" in Lao Liucai's motivation for bargain hunting will lead to a significant decrease in the investment winning rate until the game is over due to the widening information gap.
4. Expand investment scope and sectors in a downward trend
If you choose to follow new patterns and narratives in a downward market trend, you will most likely miss out on the low-priced chips that you should actually invest in, and thus miss the next round of mainstream market trends.
Invest in tokens that are within your own range of knowledge and narrow your investment scope to make it easier to get a higher rate of return.
The upward trend is the opposite. Most people will choose to invest in the tokens they once held for attention, similar to how people tend to sit in their accustomed seats, which often causes them to miss the layout stage of novel narratives.
Market analysis:
Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin fell below 60,000 and reached around 56,500. In fact, as mentioned before, the arrival of the real bottom of the market may be such a break. There is no building without breaking! When Bitcoin was plummeting yesterday, we saw that many cottages were actually not moving much, which shows that the chips of market panic have been washed out! It is difficult to have a deep correction in the short term! However, it is not realistic to want a substantial increase. After all, it is still difficult to get out of the trend of the big market without the promotion of excess funds. It can only be said that there are some local and short-term trading opportunities that can still be grasped!
From the current technical structure, STRK has broken through the suppression of the downward trend line. Theoretically speaking, it is highly likely that this wave will reach around 1.5. Therefore, if it falls back to the trend line in the near future, you can arrange a short-term investment!
If the bull market is currently in the middle stage, then it is actually a good opportunity to lay out altcoins. After all, at the current position of the big cake, we retail investors may not have much chance to play. However, most of the current altcoins are actually at a very low position. When the big bull market comes, the market may double in a single day at any time. Therefore, my current personal plan is to use the profits from swing trading to ambush some altcoins that I am optimistic about! I have started to ambush RDNT today. I remember that this project was invested by BN. It is currently at a historical low since the launch of BN, so there is nothing wrong with ambushing!
The second thing is to find some familiar, valuable, and fully circulated ones. After all, there is no subsequent selling pressure, and the rise will be smoother, such as MASK, GMX, ENJ, BADGER, LQTY, LUNC, and WIF.
There are also some that are not fully circulated but are also worth long-term investment, including ENS, TIA, BLUR, ROSE, EDU, 1INCH, and UNI
Potential new products ENA, PYTH, ETHFI, AI
Currently preparing for an ambush are
LQTY: Ambush reason: Full circulation, and the FDUSD trading pair of BN is launched, Ethereum series
ENS: Reason for ambush: Value, domain name leader
AI: AI will definitely be one of the key hypes in 2024 and 2025. Currently, most AI projects have risen a lot. Those who are looking for cost-effectiveness can buy AI directly.
MASK: With Musk’s hype, a strong series, and full circulation, there will definitely be opportunities to push up the series in the future.
BAKE, CAKE, this belongs to the BN series, and the probability of rising is very high! Just look at BNB, how hard BNB fell when it was suppressed, how strong BNB is now! In the money-making market, the profitability of platform coins is very obvious. Every new issue empowers BNB. If you say that BNB has soared, then there is a high probability that BAKE and CAKE will rise. This year, they have already performed a wave. So, don’t wait until it rises and then regret not ambush. What you need to do is ambush in advance!
The positions are currently divided into one part, swing trading, one part medium and long-term positions, and one part long-term positions. The proportion of the three positions is adjusted according to different market conditions. Taking the current market conditions as an example, the swing positions will be more, the medium and long-term positions will be moderate, and the long-term positions will be less! If the trend market comes, the swing positions will be reduced, and the medium and long-term positions will be increased!
The current bearish sentiment in the market is quite heavy, so the rise will be slow, but the decline will be smooth. In this process, swing trading is actually quite good! Last time when the Americans passed the Bitcoin EFT, there was a continuous correction. This time when Hong Kong passed the ETF, the trading volume was not that large. Bitcoin also had a correction, and Ethereum also had a correction. If we follow the hype trend of the previous Bitcoin, can this wave also rebound? It may be a bit difficult to set a new high, but we can still look forward to a rebound in May, especially with the continuous decline of the cottage, it is time for an oversold rebound!
Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.
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