There is too much content in the article. I wrote it for three days and finally it is almost over. I will give you the conclusion about the black swan in the market first. The article will be published tomorrow.
1. Black swan events that occur before the halving or during the bull market will not interrupt the bull market process.
This is the best time to participate in buying ARKB of BRC20. As the first Bitcoin spot ETF code to be approved by the U.S. SEC in the future, this typo with the same letters has unlimited traffic, has its own star halo, and is bound to be popular among ordinals and the BTC community. On January 10, 2024, during the SEC’s fourth round of decision period, ARKB must pass the approval, because there are only three things to do, and it is impossible to delay or reject it for the fourth time. $ARKB’s#Bitcoinspot ETF annual fee has been disclosed at 0.80%, making it the first issuer to disclose such a fee, and they’re determined to win. Views are for reference only, please invest with caution!
2. A black swan event at the end of a bull market will end the bull market and even lead directly to a bear market.
3. The black swans in the crypto market include regulatory crackdowns, hacker attacks, global macro events, and Ponzi model collapses. The historical declines are all above 40% and last for more than a month.
4. Black swan events happen almost every year. The black swan events of next year and the year after may be related to macro events of traditional finance (debt crisis, banking problems, economic slowdown)
5. To deal with black swan events, you need to understand the currency cycle, diversify your assets (US stocks, cryptocurrencies, over-the-counter cash flow), and hedge risks through options or hedging.
Black Swan Time Points That Need Attention
1. In March before the halving, the 312 incident and the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank occurred. The stock market fluctuated greatly in March, and several financial crises occurred in this month.
2. In May after the halving, the 519 and LUNA events happened in history. After the halving, it was also a key node in the Fed’s interest rate cut game.
3. One year after the halving, from May to July 2025, the historical events of 9.4 and 5.19, where the bull market process was interrupted by policies, all occurred one year after the halving. Before that, the market generally showed signs of being too enthusiastic, and the government intervened.
4. From November to December 2025, there will be several time points for the end of the bull market, including the historical high in 2017, the historical high in 2021, and the FTX event in 2022. It mainly depends on whether Bitcoin has significant progress in the traditional financial market. For example, the first two times were due to the CME Bitcoin futures contract and the Bitcoin futures ETF that started the bear market.
The bull market must have started because of the successful approval of the US Bitcoin spot ETF. ARKB, as the first Bitcoin spot ETF code approved by the US SEC in the future, will surely be popular in the community and have far-reaching significance. BRC20's ARKB is a very good project of the same name, and it must be a dark horse project that has attracted the attention of the community. If you missed sats, don't miss BRC20's ARKB again. On January 10, 2024, during the fourth round of SEC decision period, ARKB will be approved, because there is no more than three times the event, and it is impossible to delay or reject it for the fourth time. ARK has announced an annual fee rate of 0.8%, and is the first issuer to announce the relevant situation. They are determined to win. The views are for reference only, and investment should be cautious!
#etf #BTC #wormhole #ARKB是BRC20一道靓丽的风景线美国sec批准的第一个比特币现货ETF， #BRC20铭文正在改写整个加密领域的格局，ARKB值得购买。 $BTC $ETH $BNB
