BTC rate on May 2 - did we indicate a true reversal yesterday? We talked about its probability twice, first at the daily TF, and then at the four-hour TF. A combo of two signals on different timeframes on the trend reversal indicator usually increases the likelihood of a reversal.
At the#BTCrate - yesterday's daily candle closed under the volume level of $59,335, the bulls were able to build on the success of growth on the occasion of the US Federal Reserve. This is, locally, negative. At the same time, on the daily TF, at least a rebound is still in force, until the price dropped below yesterday’s level of $56,565 and below the volume level of $56,361.
Targets for a rebound (that is, all targets from this list are not yet a reversal):
- volume level $59,335,
- local upward trend from March 5, 2024 (currently $59,819, indicated by the dashed line),
- psychological $60,000,
- volume level $61,231,
- upward trend since December 5, 2023 (currently $61,715, indicated by a dotted line),
- EMA 50 four-hour TF (currently also at $61,715),
- volume level $62,987,
- EMA 50 day TF (currently $63,896, very important!),
- downward trend from April 8, 2024 (currently $63,990, very important!),
- volume level $64,120 (very important!).
Until the last three indicated resistances are broken through, the entire increase is just a rebound, the correction of April 30-May 1 is not absorbed. Only if it fixes (!) on the daily TF above these three resistances can we talk about a high probability of a reversal.
By the way, the probability of a SHORT signal from the Hash Ribbon indicator on the daily timeframe for#BTCis now confusing. So far it has lit up on today's candle, but may still be cancelled. You have to wait until the end of the day. If the signal remains, we will analyze what happened after it in history in the uptrend 2023-2024.
We will separately analyze the BTC Price Volatility Index.
He says that the main part of the impulse movements in BTC is still ahead.
We predicted an upward reversal of the Index on April 27-28 (last paragraph of this post). In fact, these days the decline of the index slowed down significantly and the reversal itself occurred on April 29.
On Tuesday, April 30, focusing on the Index, we warned that you need to be prepared for the price of#BTCto leave the range. True, they expected that the increase in volatility would finally lead to an increase in the price of the asset. And the market received a reduction in the price of#BTCto a psychological level of $60,000.
Now for RSI and MACD on the daily Index TF (these indicators work well on the instrument on this TF) - an important point:
- Or there will be a breakdown of level 50 by RSI and a breakdown of the EA 50 day TF, with continued growth of the Index. And then we will see even larger percentages of BTC price movement. In a bullish scenario, with a breakout of $64,120, this is a move to the next volume levels and up to the ATH update. In a bearish scenario, with a breakdown of $56,361, this is a move to the next volume levels and up to the volume level of $51,604 and the nearby EMA of the 200 day TF and the upward trend from October 2023.
- Or the Index will stay sideways for some time and you can expect an expansion of the range in the range from $56,565 to a maximum of $64,120. As part of the rebound, which, according to the trend reversal indicator, began at the#BTCrate yesterday and today.
Our priority scenario for BTC now is a continuation of the rebound towards the specified targets. If we see downward reversal signals within the rebound, we will write. If we reach $64,120, we will evaluate the situation and update the picture.
