Macroeconomics and news:
Looking at the performance of the US stock market today, I also mentioned it before the daily update in the afternoon. Basically, the positive effect brought by the US stock financial report has basically weakened. And recently we can clearly see that under the premise of the disadvantageous economic environment, the risk market cares more about the trend of economic regulation. At present, the risk market expects Powell to continue to speak hawkishly after the interest rate decision tomorrow, Wednesday, and continue to maintain a high interest rate. The old tune of interest rate cuts has also been greatly postponed to the end of the year. The frequency of interest rate cuts has also been greatly reduced.
Here I want to say a point of view. In theory, any economy must rely on issuing bonds and issuing coins to carry out an internal cycle, that is, issuing bonds, and then issuing coins to buy its own debts, and then circulate in this way to create economic and financial bubbles, and the inflation generated by the bubble will be taken over and digested by the society. For the United States, the big bubble it wants to create is for the world to bear. Therefore, it is necessary to continue to maintain the strength of the US dollar and continue to maintain high-interest US bonds.
In the US's defense mechanism this time, it is necessary to judge that the global economy can take on the risks of the United States before the United States dares to cut interest rates or relax its tone. Otherwise, any optimistic market expectations will magnify the economic risks of the United States itself and increase the probability of the collapse of the US economy. This is what the United States dares not and does not want to do. Various factors are relatively complex, so I won't say much here.
Overall, the functionality of the Federal Reserve is more obvious. The United States reduces its own economic risks and absorbs global resources by creating bubbles. The Federal Reserve is responsible for reducing the negative inflation brought about by bubbles.
The performance of US stocks today is basically predictable, and the situation of several companies that have announced financial reports is also very obvious. It is very difficult to complete an independent counter-trend rise, let alone lead the US stock market to rebound again. And if tomorrow is really as the market predicts, Powell continues to make hawkish remarks, and the market will only continue to be sluggish and fall. On the contrary, if the remarks slow down, the first trading day of May may bring an emotional rebound to the US stock market.
However, the current optimism of the US stock market cannot be extended to the crypto market. Unless there is a big macroeconomic positive, the current emotional rebound of the US stock market does not seem to bring too much positive emotions to the crypto market. This is the current embarrassing situation of the crypto market.
As for the news, the biggest news in the crypto market is the final verdict of Mr. CZ. I don’t want to make too many comments here. My personal optimistic expectation is that the sentence will be light or he will be restricted from leaving the country after paying bail. However, this does not prevent CZ from continuing to contribute to the development of blockchain on the Internet. Waiting for a good result.
