We just bought TONCOIN at the rate of $5,170.

Locally, the price may go lower, but on the daily TF we are now talking about the next, already fourth test of EMA 50 + there is a “Cheap” reversal signal from the trend reversal indicator. There is a high probability that the line that will be installed today will be the line for at least the next few days. During the day they can still “take it below”. The main thing is to see the reaction of buyers and not to close the day below the EMA of the 50 day TF.

We have been waiting for the level of $5,170 for the last few days; at night the price only reached $5,175 and there was no alert. Now it has already worked and we decided not to delay the purchase any further.

So far the picture looks like the price will be on an uptrend in the near future. Buyers are still protecting the psychological level of $5. The only thing that confuses me so far is that the RSI did not break through the downward trend since April 14 on the daily basis.

But we consider the signal from the trend reversal indicator to be more important.

Plus we continue to experiment with the “wave” look. If the vision is correct, the fifth wave has not yet appeared in the global picture and you can wait for it after the end of the local ABC correction.

The fifth wave may well be truncated, given the overbought nature of the asset and its manipulative nature. The price may remove the liquidity of the bears until the high on April 11 and then turn into a protracted correction under friendly expectations of the $10 exchange rate.

The first resistance in case of growth will be EMA 50 and 200 of the four-hour TF (currently in the area of ​​$5,539 and forming a “Death Cross”, which is a risk for the setup), the volume level of $5,674 and further according to the schedule. The key resistance for the Double Top scenario or even a move higher is now the volume level of $6.319. Next to it is the 0.5 Fibonacci level from the high on April 11 to the low on April 12.

Let us recall that we took the “Double Top” scenario from the TWT fractal in the fall-winter of 2022. Based on this particular fractal, we bought TONCOIN before the pump in October 2023.

TWT took 27 days from peak to peak. If we assume that the situation with TONCOIN will repeat itself, we can expect the setup to be worked out by approximately May 8th. But the terms are still conditional.

The goal within the framework of the idea so far is $7,643. But if the idea works, the asset shows steady growth and there are no signs of a reversal - we’ll close higher. In the same way, with reversal signals on the daily TF, we can close earlier. We are not placing an order yet.

We set a short stop, $4,922, because if the price begins to consolidate under the EMA of the 50 day TF, this is a threat of cancellation of the idea. Considering the manipulative squeezes of -20% TONCOIN has on history, the order has not yet been placed. But we will accompany you carefully. And we can close when the stop is reached and the trigger is the body closing the daily candle below the EMA of the 50 day TF.