The recent Bitcoin halving has taken place, but the market does not seem to have fluctuated as much as expected. Regarding the phenomenon of excessive hype, we must realize that the expectations brought about by hype are often not satisfactory. It is like we are expecting a substantial increase in the ideal MEGA listing, but it ultimately failed. In this case, buying expectations and selling facts has become a crucial strategy. The impact of Bitcoin's halving is not limited to the present, but more importantly, the impact on the future.
First of all, Bitcoin halving refers to the halving of its block rewards, not the reduction in total volume. According to historical laws, the market often experiences a period of correction after the first three halvings, and then a new round of bull market begins. Although historical laws have a certain reference value, we cannot accurately predict whether they will repeat in the future. What is different about this halving is that Bitcoin has already hit a record high of $73,800 before the halving. If this rally is a pre-digestion of the halving benefits, the market may fall back after the halving is implemented. However, I believe that this bull market rise is more based on a round of phased rises in Bitcoin after the high of $69,000 in 2021, and the halving is just an event that happens to occur on the current bull market timeline. Therefore, the new high of $73,800 is more the result of the trend, rather than the digestion of the halving benefits.
1. In the long run, Bitcoin is still in a bull market structure of a large cycle. Although the intraday trading is currently fluctuating between the resistance level of 73,000 and the support level of 59,600, this kind of fluctuation is often a potential adjustment for a second rise. I personally believe that once the adjustment is over, Bitcoin will usher in a higher breakthrough. Although breaking through 100,000 is still a bit exaggerated, it is quite realistic to exceed the 80,000 mark in the short term based on the breakthrough of the 59,600 support level.
2. In the short term, we have completed the bottom-fishing at the 60,000 mark. After three consecutive retracements, the price of the currency has consolidated its foundation and started to rebound. As of the early trading, the price rose to around 65,700, which shows that our mid-line bulls have firmly grasped the profit of 5,700 points. In this rebound phase, I will not pursue the breakthrough of the 73,000 high point too much. The first target we set is 64,800-65,800, and 64,800 has been successfully broken. The next short-term target will be 66,800, which will be the position for our mid-line bulls to reduce their positions. On the daily chart, 68,000 is a key watershed. We will judge whether the price will continue to rise and test the top resistance near 73,000 based on the breakthrough of this position. If the price falls, 59,600 will become the dividing point for the short-term breakthrough. However, this does not mean the end of the bull market. On the contrary, lower prices will provide us with more opportunities for bold layout, especially for those investors who want to get in on the spot. Altcoins will also become opportunities to consider.
3. In the short term, the pressure above 65400 is obvious. The price has been fluctuating around 65000. Although it rose and fell in the early trading, it did not form a continuous decline. The key today is whether it can break through and stabilize above 65400. If it can effectively stand firm, then the arrival of 66800 is just around the corner.
