Bitcoin has completed its fourth halving at block height 84,000. What should we do next? This round of bull market is full of exceptions and can be called an "atypical" bull market. Next, we will use STH-MVRV data to make an in-depth analysis.
Looking back at the 2015-2018 cycle:
As shown in Figures 1 and 2, from January 2015 to January 2016, the market was in the bottoming stage at the end of the bear market, and both STH-MVRV and MVRV were below 1 for a long time (the green box in the figure). This stage was undoubtedly a great time to buy the bottom. After entering the bull market start-up phase after January 2016, MVRV never fell below 1 again until the bull market peaked at the end of 2017 and turned into a bear market. Of course, if you only use MVRV as a reference, you may miss the opportunity of the entire cycle.
Therefore, we also need to combine STH-MVRV to capture the opportunity to get on board in the bull market. As shown in Figure 1, from August 2016 to September 2017, STH-MVRV fell below 1 5 times (marked in red), and these 5 times were all excellent opportunities to get on board in the bull market. But it is worth noting that after May 2017, MVRV appeared to be higher than 3, which marked the arrival of the late stage of the bull market. Therefore, only August 2, 2016, January 11, 2017, and March 24, 2017 are the most cost-effective opportunities. The earlier you act, the safer it is.
Looking at the 2018-2022 cycle again:
As shown in Figures 3 and 4, the data trend is quite similar to the previous cycle. From November 2018 to March 2019, the market once again entered the bottoming stage at the end of the bear market. STH-MVRV and MVRV were also below 1 for a long time, and the BTC price hovered between US$3,400 and US$4,800. This stage is undoubtedly the golden period for bargain hunting.
After April 2019, the market entered the bull market start-up phase. Unlike the previous cycle, the 312 super black swan event caused MVRV to fall below 1 again during the bull market. Therefore, in the 2018-2022 cycle, we got two rare opportunities to enter the market with full positions. Since then, MVRV has soared until the market turns bearish again.
If we look at STH-MVRV, from September 2019 to October 2020, STH-MVRV fell below 1 three times. Except for the 312 incident, the other two times were opportunities to get on the bull market. Although the black swan incident brought us paper losses, looking at the future bull market highs, the current twists and turns will eventually become a passing cloud.
Similarly, after December 2020, MVRV was higher than 3 again, marking the arrival of the late bull market peaking stage. Therefore, if you want to find a cost-effective position to get on the train, you need to act as soon as possible.
In contrast, the current market has an MVRV value of 2.15, which is not higher than 3, indicating that we have not yet entered the late stage of the bull market. The STH-MVRV value is 1.07, which is close to 1 but it is still difficult to say that it is the safest position. However, according to the above analysis, the current position should have a certain cost-effectiveness.
In addition, I also provide the corresponding BTC prices when STH-MVRV is below different values for your reference:
STH-MVRV 1: BTC $59,000
STH-MVRV 0.95: BTC $56,000
STH-MVRV 0.90: BTC $53,000
STH-MVRV 0.85: BTC 50,000 USD
STH-MVRV 0.8: BTC 47,000 USD
(Note: The above values may change over time and are for research reference only, not investment advice.)
