The fourth Bitcoin halving was successfully completed this morning, and the market reaction was relatively flat. The highest drop in the three days before the halving reached 5%, and then there was a strong rebound. This year's Bitcoin performance is too strong. If the drop is not large enough, many people may not dare to buy it. What worries me more is that the trend of Bitcoin this year is very different from the last halving. History did not repeat itself. This year, Bitcoin has set a new historical record.
Before the halving, Bitcoin has hit a new high, which may be difficult to break in the first half of the year. The real bull market may officially start in July. At present, most people believe that if Bitcoin hits a new low again, it will be a good time to intervene. But please remember that the market is anti-human. If Bitcoin continues to hit a new low, it may not simply fall and then quickly rise like the previous few times. Instead, it may fall again, wash out undetermined investors, and then continue to rise. Today, many people are optimistic about Bitcoin, which may lead to short-term adjustments.
Yesterday, the Bitcoin market fluctuated violently, first plummeting, then rebounding quickly. Many investors have limited psychological tolerance and choose to leave the market at this time. In just one hour, the market took a sharp turn for the better, and retail investors were dizzy. They thought it was right to sell, but unexpectedly they cut their losses near the floor price. For investors engaged in contract trading, this is nothing but a pipe dream. The market is still there, but the principal has disappeared. Such a clear market frightens most people because there are bearish and bullish voices in the market. For those who are not firm in their hearts, it is really not a good idea to buy or sell. However, for us, the market is actually simple. The more critical the moment, the more it tests our technology and investment experience.
Usually, after a sharp decline, market bulls need time to regain confidence and will conduct a long period of low-level fluctuations to absorb funds. Therefore, it is difficult to form a bottom directly without a large number of pull-ups in the short term. The longer the recent low-level fluctuations last, the greater the subsequent gains may be.
The current market is in the secondary bottoming stage of the initial supply of the bull market. In this area, we need to pay attention to the reduction of trading volume, or the emergence of a continuous rising bottom after a small fluctuation, so as to break away from the bottom. Otherwise, it will continue to fluctuate in a wider fluctuation range. Focus on the 59,000 position. The best signal is to recover after a false break.
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