The sword is coming! Less than 3 days before the halving, traditional financial giant @FTI_DA and top KOL @blknoiz06 have undoubtedly added fuel to the fire for the launch of #Runes. I guess the most concerned thing now is what will happen to#Runesafter the halving, and how will NFT perform? Today I will give you a detailed analysis. If this post is forwarded and liked more than 10 times, I will write an article to answer all the rune questions in the comments! Forward, like and follow, leave a message for the test network address, and you can get the test network BTC I airdropped!

1. How to read runes in the short term:
Let me first say the conclusion. The first ones to be listed quickly became the top ones, and the new listings brought huge profits. Runes were unprecedentedly hot and overflowed into NFT.
Casey's Rune 0 can be minted within 4 years, and only one can be traded per transaction, which means that the circulation will be very poor. Rune 1-9 only occupy positions, and the specifics have not been announced. Therefore, the main force of the rune market is likely to come from the current top PRE rune projects, especially those that are first opened for trading on OKX, which will become the focus of the whole audience.

The first leaders to create wealth in any emerging sector are listed on top exchanges. Judging from the community voice of the PRE Rune project and its interaction with OKX, the most likely to be listed first are#Runestone(DOG),#Rsic(Rune Coin),#Pups(PUPS Runes), and#ApeOdyssey(RUNI). The surge in the market value of DOG on OKX may directly allow Runestone holders to "recover their investment", which will continue to increase the floor price of Runestone, at least twice the current level.

On the other hand, the short-term Mint subscription after the halving will bring excess returns. Considering the MEME properties of runes, the high value is most likely to come from:
① Runes with earlier numbers, excluding those hard-coded by Casey, No. 10-100
② Interesting names that are accepted by most groups
③The wallet of Etched Runes is Ordinals OG, which has a large number of inscription NFTs. The wallet assets can be viewed through geniidata

④Top traffic platform

The wealth-creating effect of the leader and the huge short-term returns will push the Rune Protocol to another peak. The hot spots in China and the West will focus on the Rune ecosystem. The gas fee on the chain will reach at least 5000sats/vB. A large amount of asset inflow will overflow into the Inscription NFT. Whether it is the #Runestone,#ApeOdysseyof the PRE Rune or the puppet family and wizard of NFT, they will be much higher than the current floor price.

2. How to look at runes in the mid-term:
After the unprecedented hype in the short term after the launch of Rune, there will be a period of cooling down. The main reasons include:
① The unprecedented popularity in the short term has caused the gas fee of Bitcoin to only go up, which is not friendly to investors with small capital
② Too many tokens are etched in the short term, resulting in serious capital dilution. Only a few high-quality assets can maintain their growth, and investment enthusiasm is cooling down.
③ There will be more and more RUG disks, which will affect market activity in the short term

3. How to view runes in the long term:
If a short-term cooling after the short-term rune craze is inevitable, then the long-term improvement of runes is also inevitable.
Let's take a look at the past. Inscription was launched in December 2022, and reached its first peak with the launch of BRC20 in May 2023. In November 2023 and January 2024, it reached a new peak due to factors such as Binance's layout and the improvement of Bitcoin. The events that happened in the Inscription ecosystem are likely to be repeated on Runes, and there will be more or less.

Based on the essence of runes, there are three main reasons for being optimistic about runes in the long term:

① Huge market value potential of homogeneous tokens: Rune is a homogeneous token, and the tokens are equal and indifferent, benchmarking Ethereum's ERC-20 tokens and Solana's SLP tokens. The total market value of Solana's tokens exceeds half of $SOL, Ethereum's tokens exceed $ETH itself, and Bitcoin is $1.24 trillion of digital gold. The market value of Rune has huge potential.

② Unique technological innovation: It introduces a new token standard that can greatly stimulate the Bitcoin ecosystem while minimizing the impact on the Bitcoin network.

Compared with BRC-20, it can:
-Solve the problem of BTC network congestion
-As a UTXO-based protocol, data is hidden in UTXO, which has higher security
-Compatible with Lightning Network and less dependent on off-chain centralized indexes.

Compared to ERC-20 tokens:
-Smart contracts can be trusted without auditing them.

③ Bitcoin Ecological Development: Before the emergence of inscriptions, Bitcoin was just a digital currency for peer-to-peer transactions. After the emergence of inscriptions and BRC-20, the speculative nature and wealth-creating effect of the Bitcoin ecosystem attracted a steady stream of degen. The emergence of runes is like the birth of MakerDao from ERC-20. With the emergence of the rune protocol, the Bitcoin ecosystem can also give birth to more and more mature Defi, stablecoins, Gamefi, etc. The rune protocol allows Bitcoin to be both gold and oil!

Summary: Rune Protocol will inevitably become the focus of domestic and overseas markets in the short term after its launch. At the same time as the emergence of the leader, the new listing can also bring huge excess returns. In the medium term, the market enthusiasm may cool down temporarily due to GAS fees and problems with the RUG project. But in the long run, Rune is benchmarked against ERC-20 and has huge market value potential. Its unique technological innovation will provide a solid foundation for the outbreak of the Bitcoin ecosystem! Let us embrace this unprecedented masterpiece in the Web3 world together!

Who will wake up first from the dream? I know it all myself. The above is the judgment on the whole cycle after the launch of #Runes. You can also express your own views on the#Runesecosystem in the comment area. If you like my article today, please give me more reposts and likes. I will be very grateful. 🙏🙏 If this post gets more than 10 reposts and likes, I will write a tweet to answer all the rune questions in the comments!