Hot topics of Master Chat:
The recent market trend can almost be described as "mixed". The day before yesterday, the price of Bitcoin rebounded to around 72,990, and yesterday there was a sharp fluctuation. In the early morning of this morning, the price fell to around 68,210.
The master believes that the first reason is that the Bitcoin spot ETF has once again experienced a net outflow, and the second reason is that the US CPI data that has attracted global attention will be released tonight, and the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting will also be released tomorrow morning.
These events all involve the question of when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. However, judging from the continued increase in Bitcoin holdings by whales and institutions, these factors do not seem to be enough to affect the upward trend of Bitcoin prices.
The main force of Bitcoin some time ago took advantage of the negative data from the United States, and the market took advantage of the trend to wash the market, and then fluctuated in a large range for nearly a month. Finally, it is time to choose a direction, and the timing is also very delicate. Because it is close to the halving time point, according to past experience, it will fall before the halving, but this time may be a little different.
First of all, the Fed's interest rate cut or delay will not change the direction of the bull market cycle, and the process may be full of uncertainties. But the ending must be good, there is no doubt about that. In a bull market, there is no use worrying about short-term negatives, and it is easy to be confused. At present, there is only one Fed rate cut + halving + ETF support. The other two are going to happen. With this expectation, there is a high probability that you will not be led astray.
I think no matter how bad the news is, it will always go back up in a bull market. The bear markets we have experienced in the past are always full of pessimism. No matter how good the news is, it will always fall back. Everything is a cycle.
Master looks at the trend:
BTC：
First of all, we need to pay attention to the release of today's CPI index. If the actual data exceeds expectations, Bitcoin may fall further.
The first resistance level at the 1-hour level is around 69040, and the second resistance level is 69500. The current price is also retesting the short-term first resistance level. If it breaks through $69,000 and stabilizes during the day, then we can maintain the short-term upward view and it is possible to re-break the downtrend line.
In addition, it depends on whether the intraday price can stabilize above $69,000. If the downtrend line is broken, then I will continue to maintain a bullish view on the rebound.
The first support level is 68600, and the second support level is around 68200. Near the first support level is the previous low point of the double bottom pattern. The current preliminary judgment is that the price has held this position, but if it falls below this range, it is expected to fall more sharply. At the same time, this position is also an important range for long and short conversions.
If the market falls below the support in the short term, the short-selling target will be below 68000. For today's short-term trading, since the previous low point is currently maintained, we can temporarily maintain the view of rebound.
However, since there is downward resistance above, if there is no trading volume near the trend line, the short-term downward trend will increase. So while maintaining the short-term rebound view, we should also pay attention to the risk of decline.
In addition, in today's trading, we can also use the 20-day moving average of the daily level as an important support level for trading. Since the current price is still at a low point, the master still maintains the view of rebound for the time being.
ETH: Ethereum started to retreat after reaching a new high on the second day. As long as it fails to stand firm at 3800, it will still accumulate strength below. Otherwise, it will be difficult to open up the upper space. The current support level is 3450-3500 during the day. The first resistance level above is 3600, and the second resistance level is 3650. The main important level above is still at 3800.
4.10 Master's short-term pre-buried order:
BTC：
Long around 67800-68200, target 69000-69400 (to prevent the evening news from inserting pins)
ETH：
More around 3450-3490, target 3580-3600
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