CPI data became the theme of this week, the risk market began to treat it calmly, and Bitcoin started a new round of rebound breakthrough!
Hi, girls and boys, welcome to Uncle Cat’s crypto world.
As of the time of publishing this article, Bitcoin is priced around 71,900.
Because of the speeches by Federal Reserve officials and the release of employment data last week, this week's CPI data has become the focus of risk markets' attention, with the market trying to draw more conclusions about the Fed's interest rate cut this year through the data.
The US stock market performed steadily today, with mixed gains and losses. Bitcoin rebounded during the day, successfully breaking through 70,000, and successfully completed the daily Bollinger Band shock. Whether it will stabilize and break through or continue to pull back, we need to pay attention to more data.
Bitcoin disk analysis:
Today's Bitcoin rebound broke through the resistance of the 1-hour and 4-hour Bollinger Bands and moved out of the oscillation range of the daily Bollinger Bands. The price fell after accurately hitting the daily Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price remains on the upper track of the daily Bollinger Bands.
At present, the 4-hour Bitcoin price has completed a breakthrough, so the daily resistance level of 72,800 is the first resistance level. The weekly resistance level we paid attention to before has been adjusted to around 77,300 after a week. The upward movement of the resistance level will be more favorable for the rebound and breakthrough of the price in the short term. Once the price breaks through the resistance level of the daily Bollinger Band, it depends on the breakthrough of the historical high. If it continues to break through, it will be at a higher position.
After the price of Bitcoin has risen and then fallen, many people are worried whether this decline will fall to strong support like before. Let's take a look at the current updated support situation below.
The first support, 70,600, is a short-term support, which is slightly stronger. This support is provided by the 1-hour Bollinger Band middle line and the 4-hour EMA7.
The second support is 68,000-69,000, a short-term support range with strong support. This support range is a multi-technical support range formed by the 1-hour Bollinger Band lower line, the 4-hour Bollinger Band middle line, the daily Bollinger Band middle line, and the weekly EMA7. This support range will form the strongest support range below the current Bitcoin price.
The third support, 66,500, is a short-term support with strong support. This support is effectively supported by the upper line of the monthly Bollinger Band and the lower line of the 4-hour Bollinger Band. This support is a key support point after the decline from the end of March to the beginning of April. The price once again forms an effective turnover in the range, and the chip support is also strong.
Currently, Bitcoin has completed a breakthrough after the 1-hour and 4-hour Bollinger Bands contracted. Although the price was blocked by the daily resistance level and fell back, the decline was small, which was a technical correction trend.
At the same time, the daily Bollinger Bands are shrinking, and the technical support and chip support below are moving up, providing a good protection for short-term prices. As long as the third support is not broken and the price remains stable above the weekly line, it will be conducive to an upward breakthrough after the daily Bollinger Bands shrink and change.
The RSI relative strength index is currently at 68, which is a relatively high value. Once it breaks through around 70, it will form an overbought state in terms of sentiment. Therefore, the current price decline can effectively eliminate the short-term overbought sentiment in the environment.
Market dynamics and capital changes: "Comparison with last Friday's data"
(The data is real-time data. If there are major changes in the short-term market, the data will be significantly biased.)
The current market value is 2.824 trillion, an increase of 226 billion compared to last Friday.
The market value of Bitcoin is 1415.6 billion, an increase of 106.7 billion compared to last Friday.
Ethereum's market value is 438.16 billion, an increase of 47.08 billion compared to last Friday.
The total market value increased by 226 billion, Bitcoin and Ethereum increased by 153.78 billion, and the rest was the market value increase of 72.22 billion for copycats.
Bitcoin accounted for 50.1% of the market, down 30 basis points from last Friday; Ethereum accounted for 15.5%, up 50 basis points from last Friday; altcoin accounted for 34.4%, down 20 basis points from last Friday.
In terms of trading volume:
The total trading volume was 108.7 billion, a decrease of 15.5 billion compared to last Friday.
Bitcoin 30.78 billion, a decrease of 12.02 billion compared to last Friday.
Ethereum 18.06 billion, a decrease of 340 million compared to last Friday.
The total transaction volume of the altcoin was 59.86 billion, which was 3.14 billion less than last Friday.
Funding:
The total on-site funds were 155.5 billion, an increase of 1.6 billion compared with last Friday, and the funds accounted for 5.51%, a decrease of 43 basis points compared with last Friday.
USDT: Market value of 106.84 billion, an increase of 400 million USD compared to last Friday; trading volume of 43.5 billion, a decrease of 58%.
USDC: Market value of 32.6 billion, a decrease of 300 million US dollars compared to last Friday; trading volume of 6.6 billion, a decrease of 80%
The overall changes in the market today are relatively optimistic, or to be more precise, mixed.
The market is worthy of growth. The most eye-catching performance is Ethereum, which finally performed well after a period of weakness. The second largest increase in market capitalization is Bitcoin, followed by the altcoin market.
Judging from the trading volume, as the price rebounded, the reduction in trading volume proved that the market's bullish sentiment was gradually improving. The decline in volume is good for prices. The most obvious performance was Bitcoin, followed by the altcoin market. Ethereum's market value increased significantly today, but its trading volume was not low, proving that Ethereum's sentiment has not yet tended to be completely bullish.
Although the data on trading volume and market value are good, the funding aspect is a bit worrying. After a weekend, the on-site retained funds increased by 1.6 billion, 400 million of funds flowed into the Asian market off-site, and the US market saw capital inflows again, with an inflow of up to 300 million. That is to say, after a weekend, 1.5 billion of funds in the market ended transactions and remained on the sidelines.
Of course, for funds, today is Monday, and the situation of US funds still needs to be observed. Whether they will continue to flow out and whether the data will continue to deteriorate will be our focus of observation in the future.
However, overall, the market value and trading volume have improved compared to last week. The rest depends on whether the market traders' sentiment is good.
Macroeconomics and news:
There are two important time points this week, CPI inflation on Wednesday and the Federal Reserve monetary minutes on Thursday morning. Originally, the monetary minutes were the theme, but now that the market has recognized that there will be no interest rate hikes or cuts, the Federal Reserve monetary minutes may not seem that important.
The CPI data, as one of the references for inflation data, was originally not as important as the PCE index. However, after the speeches of Powell and other hawkish officials of the Federal Reserve last week, the market is eager to understand the Fed's interest rate cut trend through inflation data.
Therefore, CPI is the most concerned data this week, followed by the speeches of Fed officials in the Fed monetary minutes after the data is released. The market can reasonably anticipate the Fed's interest rate cut this year through CPI data and speeches.
Influenced by the US employment data last Friday, the Fed's current rate cut expectations for this year have been reduced from three to two, and the expectations for rate cuts in June and July have been postponed to September. Risk markets will not want various data to show that the rate cuts of several years have been further reduced in the short term.
In fact, my personal understanding is that we don’t need to consider the data to judge the Fed’s interest rate cut for the time being. Of course, market expectations are still a reference. I think that before the Fed actually cuts interest rates in the future, data and speeches are smokescreens. The problems that the United States needs to face are not just data and speeches that can alleviate them.
If last week's employment data represents a strong foundation for the U.S. economy, then why are the new jobs so strange, and why are the employment data not increasing in mainstream occupations? Is it because Americans who once tried to give up have begun to try various jobs to cope with the pressure of life?
Why is the recovery of production data accompanied by a decrease in electricity consumption? Has the manufacturing industry also begun to reduce consumption with the use of new energy?
Therefore, for some of the data currently released by the United States, the purpose of using them to disrupt the outside world's understanding of the Federal Reserve's real actions is important.
Moreover, I have some doubts whether the Fed will wait until the risk market and the outside world are immune to the Fed data and then suddenly announce a rate cut to catch everyone off guard. Of course, this view cannot be verified and can only be regarded as speculation.
In the crypto market, there was no data or news that required special attention on Monday.
Market summary:
For the current market conditions, the shrinking volume and rising prices represent that the market sentiment is gradually warming up. Up to now, the sentiment of Bitcoin production reduction has not been hyped, so there are still opportunities.
At the same time, in the current rebound of Bitcoin, we need to pay attention to the breakthrough of resistance. If the resistance level cannot be successfully broken, it will fall again and then rebound again. This trend will indicate that there will be a wave of extreme market conditions in the near future. This is the result brought to us by the technical side. At the same time, if the rebound cannot break through the previous high of the daily line, and the decline cannot break through the previous low, it proves that the market shock range is compressed, and emotions need to explode after accumulating strength.
Therefore, contract users should be more cautious in their operations in the near future.
As for spot, before the Bitcoin halving, it is difficult for me to find a way to fully utilize the bearish market, and Ethereum's strength today, coupled with the activeness of the altcoin market, may bring more opportunities to retail investors in the market. So before the Bitcoin halving, we just need to hold positions and wait for the results.
In this round of bull market, Bitcoin ecology will be an important theme, and some blockchain projects driven by US capital will also burst out with good power. If there is no substantial progress in technology, people who are disappointed with technological innovation may once again promote the meme sector.
Finally, thank you all for your continued attention to Uncle Cat and thank you for your continued support.
