Why is there a high probability that BTC will plunge again?
Last night's PMI data exceeded expectations, causing the newly rebounded BTC to fall further. The US dollar index soared, and the US Treasury yield also rose, which was the largest single-day increase this year.
The PMI exceeded expectations, providing further evidence for the Fed to maintain high interest rates to fight inflation. We all thought that interest rates would be cut in June, but the CPI released in mid-March and the PMI released yesterday exceeded expectations. According to economic data, Powell said last week that he was not in a hurry to cut interest rates.
So the probability of a rate cut in June is less than 50%. The Fed is hawkish again! Fortunately, the current on-chain data shows that the whales are still hoarding coins. Tether, the company that issues USDT, bought 8,888 BTC in the first quarter. The risk of BTC plummeting again is small. At present, it is still mainly defensive, and beware of Friday's non-agricultural data. The crux of the old US inflation lies in the hot labor market. Non-agricultural data and industrial data will be released at 8:30 pm on Friday.
If it still exceeds expectations, there will be another drop. If it is lower than expected, the currency circle will launch a comprehensive counterattack. 🐍裙＋玮：gaun2470 At present, we should lower our expectations, do more defense and less offense. Currently, we recommend a 6-layer position. Brothers with too large contract positions should be cautious and try to reduce leverage. In trading, living long is much more important than temporary ups and downs. As long as the chips are still there, there are endless opportunities. I am afraid that after the explosion, there will be no chance after leaving the table.
